In Tokyo I’m speaking on what I argue is the biggest challenge facing the US-Japan alliance in the future: a looming capabilities gap with China. By this I mean that, even assuming modest Chinese growth in the future (no more 9, 10%, but rather a more realistic 5-7%) the Chinese economy will likely outpace that of the United States, and will be able to generate far more capability than the US-Japan alliance. With the US defense budget mandated as flat by the 2011 Budget Control Act, Japan has some tough choices to make. Will it accept an East Asia in which it lives under Chinese military dominance–or will it significantly increase its defense spending?

I delivered this talk at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation to an audience of scholars and Japanese policy makers, and am giving it to a public audience on December 1 at Temple University’s Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies.