Month: May 2014

By Rebecca Rodriguez

On May 15, 2014, Bruce Riedel, counter-terrorism expert and former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, discussed the future of American security at Dartmouth College. The discussion, hosted by World Outlook, allowed students to ask Riedel questions concerning terrorism, intelligence gathering, and future of foreign policy.

Riedel began the discussion with a brief talk regarding American security and its future. America, he believes, has been developing a new foreign policy, much of which is coming from the Republican Party. He predicts that because of these changes the 2016 election will feature a choice not narrow in contours. Riedel emphasized that Americans need to ask themselves what are the nation’s interests and what are we willing to fight for

Riedel then went on to address the issues and the limitations of counter-terrorism. He explained that the biggest misperception surrounding terrorism was that Al Qaeda is or has ever been a monolithic, well-organized, global terrorist organization. Until the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011, much of the organization had been driven underground; it is only recently that that the group has again gained strength. Concerning the limitations of counter-terrorism, Riedel has confidence in American capabilities however recognizes that it is particularly difficult to make progress simply because there is little information about many groups and their members. Similarly, attacks planned by few individuals, such as the Boston Marathon bombing, have short gestation periods and are therefore practically impossible to be discovered and prevented.

Concerning the NSA and American intelligence, Riedel acknowledged that the NSA has yet to make a compelling case for what seems to be a superfluous amount of data collection. However, he personally believes more is better in order to protect the nation’s interest. As far as the recent releases of intelligence, Riedel believes that Snowden has had the most impact as he released many methods of intelligence collection. Subsequently there has been a noticeable changed in the behavior of Al Qaeda’s communications. However, he is confident that Snowden will one day be tried and convicted.

Riedel’s following remarks concerning a regime change in Saudi Arabia, the Syrian crisis, and relations with the UAE all relate to the question of American interests. As far as Syria and Saudi Arabia, Riedel emphasized the instability and unpredictable nature of the situations, again leaving the questions up to a matter of American decisiveness. He reiterated that Americans should decide in broader terms what our interests are and where we are willing to get involved.

Bruce Riedel is senior fellow and director of the Brookings Intelligence Project, part of Brookings’ new Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. Riedel also serves as a senior fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy.

By Ariana Mercado

Peter Singer is Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for 21^st Century Security and Intelligence at the Brooking Institution, and gave a presentation at Dartmouth on Monday, May 15^th, 2014 on Cybersecurity and Cyberwar. This presentation discussed changes in technology, explained how they affect global security, and gave advice on what an individual can do about the growing issue of cyber security.

​Computation skills touch all aspects of society. Since the first website in 1991, there are currently over 30 trillion websites and 40 trillion emails are sent every year. In the next 5 years, internet enabled devices are estimated to reach 40 billion. All this activity and all these mediums for communication cause 98% of all military operations go through the civilian domain.

With all these amazing advantages to a more interconnected world there remain dangerous disadvantages. Every second, 9 new pieces of malware are discovered. 97% of all Fortune 500 companies admitted to having been hacked, and what Americans are most afraid of is a cyber-attack, with diplomats facing millions of cyber-attacks per day. It is estimated that in the next 10 years the number of cyber-attacks will double. 80 cyber security companies have entered the emerging industry of cyber security with a 10 fold return showing the growing demand for these services.

In addition, cyber security bureaucracies are emerging at both the local and federal level. From last year to this year the amount of times “cyber” was used in the Pentagon’s Annual Budget grew from 12 times to 147 times.

Though cyberwar is an art, 70% of business executives have made cyber security decisions with critically little academic experience in the field. Thus, Peter Singer stressed the importance of a comprehensive, holistic approach to cyber security. Cyber security is everything from the individual level to the organizational level to the global political level. All these different degrees of attacks are lumped together causing gaps in the understanding of the nature of cyber-attacks.

The Internet works on a system on trust. There are three trends to this system: 1. Cybercrime 2. Government actions on monitoring the internet. Pushes by authoritarian regimes in blocking the free flow of information (i.e. China and Russia). What can we do?

1. Knowledge matters (don’t just leave it to the nerds),
2. People matter (if you want to set up a response you have to understand the people behind the machines)
3. Incentives (incentivize a solution to set up standards and regulations)
4. History matters (prevention is always better than a cure).