Selected Publications

Great Depression

• Who Anticipated the Great Depression?, Gustav Cassel versus Keynes and Hayek on the Interwar Gold Standard, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 46 (February 2014): 199-227.
• The French Gold Sink and the Great Deflation, Cato Papers on Public Policy 2 (2012-13): 3-41.
• Gold Sterilization and the Recession of 1937-38, Financial History Review 19 (December 2012): 249-267.
• Esprit de Currency, Finance and Development, June 2011.
• The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?,  (with Barry Eichengreen), Journal of Economic History 70 (December 2010): 872-898.
• Trade Blocs, Currency Blocs, and the Reorientation of World Trade in the 1930s, (with Barry Eichengreen) Journal of International Economics 38 (February 1995):  1-24.

US Trade Policy

• The Nixon Shock after 40 Years: The Import Surcharge Revisited, World Trade Review 12 (January 2013): 29-66.
• Revenue or Reciprocity?  Founding Feuds over Early U.S. Trade Policy in Founding Choices: American Economic Policy in the 1790s, edited by Douglas A. Irwin and Richard Sylla.  Chicago: University of Chicago Press & NBER, 2011.
• “Trade Restrictiveness and Deadweight Losses from U.S. Tariffs.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 2 (August 2010): 111-133.
• Antebellum Tariff Politics:  Regional Coalitions and Shifting Economic Interests, Journal of Law and Economics 51 (November 2008): 715-742.
• The Antebellum U.S. Iron Industry: Domestic Production and Foreign Competition (with Joseph H. Davis), Explorations in Economic History 45 (July 2008): 254-269.
• Tariff Incidence in America’s Gilded Age, Journal of Economic History 67 (September 2007): 582-607.
• The Welfare Costs of Autarky: Evidence from the Jeffersonian Embargo, 1807-1809. Review of International Economics 13 (September 2005):  631-645.
• The Rise of U.S. Antidumping Activity in Historical Perspective. The World Economy 28 (May 2005): 651-668.
• The Aftermath of Hamilton’s Report on Manufactures, Journal of Economic History 64 (September 2004): 800-821.
• The Optimal Tax on Antebellum Cotton Exports, Journal of International Economics 60 (August 2003):  275‑291.
• New Estimates of the Average Tariff of the United States, 1790-1820. Journal of Economic History 63 (June 2003): 506-513.
• Explaining America’s Surge in Manufactured Exports, 1880-1913, Review of Economics and Statistics 85 (May 2003): 364-376.
• Interpreting the Tariff-Growth Correlation of the Late Nineteenth Century, American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 91 (May 2002): 165-169.
• The Antebellum Tariff on Cotton Textiles Revisited (with Peter Temin), Journal of Economic History 61 (September 2001): 777-798
• Tariffs and Growth in Late Nineteenth Century America, The World Economy 24 (January 2001): 15-30.
• Could the U.S. Iron Industry Have Survived Free Trade After the Civil War? Explorations in Economic History 37 (July 2000): 278-299.
• Did Late Nineteenth Century U.S. Tariffs Promote Infant Industries?  Evidence from the Tinplate Industry, Journal of Economic History 60 (June 2000): 335-360.
• Interests, Institutions, and Ideology in Securing Policy Change: The Republican Conversion to Trade Liberalization after Smoot-Hawley (with Randall S. Kroszner), Journal of Law and Economics 42 (October 1999): 643-673.
• Changes in U.S. Tariffs: The Role of Import Prices and Commercial Policies, American Economic Review 88 (September 1998): 1015-1026.
• The Smoot-Hawley Tariff: A Quantitative Assessment, Review of Economics and Statistics 80 (May 1998): 326-334.
• Higher Tariffs, Lower Revenues?  Analyzing the Fiscal Aspects of the Great Tariff Debate of 1888, Journal of Economic History 58 (March 1998): 59-72.
• From Smoot-Hawley to Reciprocal Trade Agreements: Changing the Course of U.S. Trade Policy in the 1930s, in Michael Bordo, Claudia Goldin, and Eugene White (eds.), The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998).
• Log-Rolling and Economic Interests in the Passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, (with Randall S. Kroszner) Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, 45 (December 1996): 173-200.
• Trade Politics and the Semiconductor Industry, in Anne O. Krueger (ed.), The Political Economy of American Trade Policy (Chicago:  University of Chicago Press, 1996).

General Trade Policy

• “Free Trade and Multilateralism in Historical Perspective,” (with Kevin H. O’Rourke). In Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century, edited by Robert C. Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor. Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the NBER, 2014.
• Airbus versus Boeing Revisited:  International Competition in the Aircraft Market (with Nina Pavcnik), Journal of International Economics 64 (December 2004):  223‑245.
•  Causing Problems?  The WTO Review of Causation and Injury Attribution in U.S. Section 201 Cases, World Trade Review 2 (November 2003):  297‑325.
•  Does Trade Raise Income?  Evidence from the Twentieth Century (with Marko J. Terviö), Journal of International Economics 58 (October 2002): 1-18.
•  High Tech R&D Subsidies:  Estimating the Effects of Sematech, (with Peter J. Klenow) Journal of International Economics 40 (May 1996): 323-344.
•  The GATT’s Contribution to Economic Recovery in Post-War Europe, in Barry Eichengreen (ed.), Europe’s Postwar Growth (New York:  Cambridge University Press, 1995).
•  The GATT in Historical Perspective, American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 85 (May 1995):  323-328.
• Learning-by-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry, (with Peter J. Klenow) Journal of Political Economy 102 (December 1994): 1200-1227.
• Multilateral and Bilateral Trade Policies in the World Trading System: An Historical Perspective, in Jaime de Melo and Arvind Panagariya (eds.), New Dimensions in Regional Integration (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993).

British Trade Policy

• “The Reciprocity Debate in Parliament,” in Andrew Marrison (ed.), Free Trade and Its Reception, 1815-1860 (London: Routledge, 1998).
• The Political Economy of Free Trade:  Voting in the British General Election of 1906, Journal of Law and Economics 37 (April 1994):  75-108.
• Free Trade and Protection in Nineteenth Century Britain and France Revisited:  Comment on Nye, Journal of Economic History 53 (March 1993):  146-152.
• Strategic Trade Policy and Mercantilist Trade Rivalries, American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 82 (May 1992):  138-143.
• Mercantilism as Strategic Trade Policy:  The Anglo-Dutch Rivalry for the East India Trade, Journal of Political Economy 99 (December 1991):  1296-1314.
• Political Economy and Peel’s Repeal of the Corn Laws, Economics and Politics 1 (Spring 1989):  41-59.
• Welfare Effects of British Free Trade:  Debate and Evidence from the 1840s, Journal of Political Economy 96 (December 1988):  1142-1164.