Zack Markovich (Dartmouth '15) and I are working on two papers to measure and explain electoral volatility. What is electoral volatility? Look at this graph of the state-by-state changes in votes for the US political parties in presidential elections since 1832. Fewer states change their votes from one election to the next than in any other time in US history.
What accounts for this decline in volatility? The answer is that party polarization and close elections at the state level reduce voter uncertainty, making elections less volatile. Rising economic inequality also reduces volatility. Surprisingly, changes in national economic conditions have no effect on volatility. Volatility.Simple.v8