A recent analysis reveals which nations should especially refrain from exploiting much of their carbon-based energy reserves when limiting global warming temperature to 2 °C, Michael Jakob and Jerome Hilaire reported online in the journal Nature on January 7, 2015. Source: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/on-unburnable-carbon-and-the-specter-of-a-carbon-bubble/?_r=0
A recent analysis reveals which nations should especially refrain from exploiting much of their carbon-based energy reserves when limiting global warming temperature to 2 °C, Michael Jakob and Jerome Hilaire reported online in the journal Nature on January 7, 2015. Source: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/on-unburnable-carbon-and-the-specter-of-a-carbon-bubble/?_r=0
In 2010, governments from around the world gathered at an international climate change conference in Cancun, Mexico and agreed to limit climate change to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels to prevent serious harm to humans, including significant reductions in wheat and maize yield, more extreme weather, and decreased availability of fresh water (1). A year later, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that to retain a one-in-five chance of keeping global average surface temperature within this ‘safe’ limit, global carbon emissions could not exceed 886 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide between 2000 and 2050.
Previous research on climate change and fossil fuels mainly focused on examining the implications of carbon dioxide mitigations in terms of profits collected from fossil fuels. However, a new study conducted by McGlade and Ekins focused on quantifying fossil fuels that should not be used to limit the temperature rise to 2 °C. Using the estimated IPCC carbon dioxide budget, Christophe McGlade—a research associate at University College London’s Institute for Sustainable Resources (ISR)—and Paul Ekins—an ISR economist—determined which countries and territories possess the unburnable reserves via computer modeling.
The study defined two terms—“resources” and “reserves”. Resources were defined as the remaining ultimately recoverable resources—the quantity of oil, gas or coal remaining that is recoverable over all time with both current and future technology, irrespective of current economic conditions. Reserves were a subset of resources that are defined to be recoverable under current economic conditions and have a probability of being produced.
Potential emissions from proven, unburned reserves of fossil fuels were calculated, and the predicted emissions from these reserves were concluded to amount between four and five times the global carbon budget set between now and 2050. As a result, fossil fuel reserves that will emit more carbon dioxide than the carbon budget were classified as unburnable. In other words, the “unburnable reserves” were defined as a subset of resources that are recoverable under current economic conditions and have a specific probability of being produced, but should not be exploited if the world is to have a good chance of staying with the 2 °C limit (2). The study used the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model in University College London (TIAM-UCL) model – a technology-rich, bottom-up, whole-system model that maximizes social welfare under a number of imposed constraints – to project the effects of greenhouse gas emissions by constraining the model input temperature to 2 °C.
The study revealed that if the world wants to stay in the 2 °C limit in the most cost-effective manner, more than 80 percent of the current coal, 50 percent of gas, and 33 percent of oil reserves should be classified as “unburnable”. Globally, over 431 billion barrels of oil, 95 trillion cubic meters of gas and 819 gigatonnes of coal currently classified as reserves should remain unburned by 2050. The Middle East, in particular, carries over 50 percent of the unburnable oil globally—263 billion barrels out of 431 billion barrels. Although only 2.8 billion barrels of oil were classified as unburnable, the United States has the highest utilization of its oil reserves, meaning that it can only use 6 percent of its oil reserves to limit the temperature to 2 °C. The Middle East also holds about 50 percent of unburnable global gas reserves—46 trillion cubic meters out of 95 trillion cubic meters of gas—with the Former Soviet Union countries, but mostly Russia, holding the other 33 percent. The United States of America and the Former Soviet Union holds the largest—about 53 percent—unburnable coal reserves with 235 and 203 gigatonnes of coal, respectively, out of 819 gigatonnes of global unburnable coal reserves. The availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) was understood to have the largest effect on the production levels, but the study showed little variability in the total production of fossil fuels to remain within the target.
Designating any fossil fuels as unburnable would represent a great shift in global policy and business, because long-term climate stability would require “unprecedented” global cooperation, with countries agreeing to a plan that would set a global price on fossil fuel caused pollution. The study highlights a 20 percent reduction in funding or fossil fuel extraction and a doubling of yearly investment in renewable energy sources. Although many believe that mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is accompanied by sacrificing economic growth, the IPCC suggests that the cost of mitigating climate change would only be a 0.06 percent reduction in annual global economic growth out of a minimum projected 1.6 percent growth (3).
Sources:
1. Biello, D (30 Mar 2014) Food and Water Shortages May Prove Major Risks of Climate Change. Scientific American. Retrieved from http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/food-and-water-shortages-may-prove-major-risks-of-climate-change/
2. Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) (2008) Petroleum Resources Management System. Retrieved from www.spe.org/industry/docs/Petroleum_Resources_Management_System_2007.pdf
3. Biello, D (13 Apr 2014). How to Solve Global Warming: It’s the Energy Supply. Scientific American. Retrieved from http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-solve-global-warming-its-the-energy-supply/.