Jeffrey A. Friedman, War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019). Published through Oxford’s “Bridging the Gap” series of policy-relevant scholarship on international relations.
Summary
War and Chance shows how foreign policy officials often avoid assessing uncertainty and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Pushing back against the widespread idea that assessments of uncertainty in international politics are too subjective to be useful, the book explains how foreign policy analysts can form these judgments in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically valuable, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in foreign policy analysis, and shows that placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. The book substantiates these claims by examining critical episodes in the history of U.S. national security policy and by drawing on a diverse range of quantitative evidence, including a database that contains nearly one million geopolitical forecasts and experimental studies involving hundreds of national security professionals.
Reviews:
“The best book on improving decision making through rigorous empirical analysis since Philip Tetlock’s landmark Expert Political Judgment.” — Brian Rathbun, Perspectives on Politics
“Jeff Friedman’s War and Chance makes an important contribution to the literature on intelligence analysis, intelligence reform and the assessment and evaluation of evidence in intelligence estimates. It is comprehensive, well-written, well-organized, and meticulous in its analysis. It carefully, logically and strongly advocates for the use of more precise numerical probability estimates in making judgments and predictions regarding uncertain events over the use of vague wording such as ‘highly likely’ or ‘unlikely.’ Friedman’s book does a terrific job marshaling an enormous amount of material to make a creative argument which deserves much wider discussion.” –Rose McDermott, Professor of International Relations, Brown University
“The world is uncertain, but even the most experienced leaders and policy experts have great difficulties dealing with probabilities. Jeffery Friedman’s deep discussion of how this kind of analysis can lead not only to a better understanding but also to better practices.” –Robert Jervis, author of How Statesmen Think
“Uncertainty is a large, inevitable, but unwelcome part of national security decision-making, and is too often obscured rather than recognized and confronted. In an elegant and creative analysis, Jeffrey Friedman persuasively refutes many longstanding misconceptions and provides analysts and practitioners alike an invaluable guide to thinking about the unknown.” –Paul R. Pillar, Georgetown University, and author of Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy
“Friedman makes an extraordinarily fine contribution to international relations theory and, more importantly, to rational choice theory. He analyzes with meticulous precision and a wealth of literature support an essential characterization in foreign policy decision-making: the element of uncertainty or the lack of perfect information in the context of any situation. Friedman’s scholarship is an essential read to appreciate the efforts necessary for intelligence analysis and the assessment and evaluation of gathered information that becomes the basis for operational decisions … This book will become a classic reference for those involved in intelligence decisions.” — S. R. Silverburg, emeritus, Catawba College, CHOICE
“In short, War and Chance is an articulate, closely reasoned, empirically tested challenge to fundamental assumptions, which continue to shape analytic practice in the intelligence community, about how (and how not) to think rigorously and transparently about uncertainty.” — Charles Heard, Studies in Intelligence