Peak Age in Sports

Ten years ago, a cultural phenomenon swept the United States. This was “Linsanity,” the mass hype surrounding a Harvard basketball player, who, after going undrafted in 2010, would become one of the biggest stars of the sport barely a year later. Two years after that, nobody save for the most diehard basketball fans would even know what team he played on. Meanwhile, in tennis, there is Roger Federer, who, at 40, is still one of the juggernauts of tennis. Perhaps even look at Kevin Harvick, the 45-year-old NASCAR driver who led the series last year with nine wins (a quarter of the schedule).

One could point to a number of reasons why Jeremy Lin fizzled out so young or how Harvick seems to have discovered the fountain of youth, but what we find more interesting is to look at each sport as a whole. We want to determine what the “peak age” is in three different sports. Peak age can be defined as the age at which players, on average, have the most success based on each sport’s individual measurement criteria. Do basketball players tend to simply fizzle out younger? Do NASCAR drivers perform better with a little gray in their beards? Let’s dig in.

NASCAR

Secretary Will Steadman '22

When you think about sports, obviously the first thing you think of is NASCAR. No? Is that just me? Well, anyway, even avid NASCAR fans may not realize the amount of analytics that goes into everything from making the cars faster to choosing which drivers to hire. For the sake of this analysis, we are going to look more at stats within the latter category. David Smith runs a fantastic website called Motorsports Analytics that compares drivers and teams in NASCAR across a wide range of categories and, in the end, assigns them a rating called Performance in Equal Equipment Rating (PEER) that attempts to isolate driver skill from how well the car performs. Through years of calculating this metric, he has discovered that NASCAR drivers perform the best, on average, when they are 39 years old. There is a fairly slow and consistent rise in driver performance from the early-20s until 39, after which performance tends to decline steeply. 

Given the amount of data collected in NASCAR, peak age is fairly straightforward, with some notable exceptions like Kevin Harvick, who continues to be dominant well into his forties. Overall, the trend generally holds up very well, with even NASCAR legends such as seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson experiencing a steep decline once reaching his forties. 

So why is this the case? Nothing is certain, but there are a few plausible theories. First, although NASCAR drivers are fit athletes who have to endure long periods of high G-forces and have been shown to maintain heart rates similar to marathon runners over the course of a race, skill, and experience are much more important than being in great shape (sorry, Matt DiBenedettto). The Cup Series visits over 25 different tracks and layouts per year, and, to maintain competitive balance between underfunded and powerhouse teams, drivers are forbidden from testing on the tracks outside of the allotted times during race weekend. Although some may look more similar, each race track is as different to drive as a golf course is different to play. Some young drivers may have only driven each track outside of the simulator a few times, while veterans know exactly what line to take to get around it as quickly as possible. 

Many other things come along with experience as well. Drivers develop skill at not using up their tires too early, and start to learn how each different adjustment can change the feel of their car. While rookies will often simply tell their crew chiefs “I’m loose” and expect the crew chief to do their best to fix that problem for them, more experienced drivers like Kyle Busch, age 36, often actually tell their crew chiefs exactly what they want changed. 

Despite all the experience and skills a driver can gain with years behind the wheel, aging affects NASCAR drivers, too. Even if a driver can maintain good physical shape, like Johnson, who ran the Boston Marathon in a little over three hours at age 43, other characteristics inevitably begin to slow down. Reaction time, an incredibly important factor in auto racing, starts declining as early as age 24. In the end, it appears that 39 may be that perfect number where a driver’s skill is still increasing through experience, but the physical decline has not caught up to him quite yet. It is at this point that a NASCAR driver peaks.

TENNIS

Kai Sane '21

In terms of determining the peak age of competitors within a sport, tennis presents an intriguing opportunity for analysis. For one, tennis is an individual sport, so it differs greatly from the dynamics seen in popular sports leagues such as the NBA and NFL. In these sports, players compete with their teammates on the court or field, and the performance of the individual can be impacted by that of their teammates. In addition, general managers of these teams hold the keys to the kingdom as far as shaping the future of the franchise. For example, tennis players like Roger Federer do not have to deal with situations like Michael Jordan faced in 1998, when Chicago Bulls’ general manager Jerry Krause made the decision to break up the legendary Bulls team that created a championship dynasty. However, similar to the NBA and NFL, playing professional tennis requires exceptional physical fitness and a variety of skills in order to be successful at the highest level, and many of these players have a team of people behind them, including coaches, fitness trainers, and agents. For the sake of this article and ease of comparison across sports chosen, we will be focusing on male professional tennis players on the ATP Tour, but women on the WTA Tour show remarkably similar patterns in terms of reaching peak performance in their sport, although top female players generally peak a bit earlier than male players. 

While research on peak performance in tennis is fairly limited, the general consensus is that tennis players reach their prime around the age of 24 or 25. However, these studies seem to be a bit dated, as some players have been finding increased success later in their careers. Swiss tennis legend Roger Federer commented that several different factors are contributing to players having longer careers, including personal investments by players in their health, higher quality services provided by the ATP Tour, and incentives via increased prize money at tournaments. The legendary Big Three of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic seems to have taken this progression towards longer careers a step further, as these titans of the sport continue to defy Father Time and compete at the highest level. Federer (39), Nadal (34), and Djokovic (34) have brought tennis to new heights, and they still remain at the pinnacle of the sport as they reach their mid-to-late-30 — something that was almost unheard of in previous eras, when stars like Pete Sampras, Boris Becker, and Bjorn Borg ruled the sport. 

For example, consider Novak Djokovic’s match statistics and career trajectory. While he has consistently been a top player, Djokovic has had certain seasons that have been better than others. In both 2011 and 2015, Djokovic proceeded to win three of the four Grand Slam titles while also amassing a double-digit title count in total, representing extremely strong years on the tour. While the 2011 season would be considered to be during Djokovic’s prime based on the aforementioned studies, as he was about 24-25 years old, his strongest year on tour in terms of win percentage and titles was during the 2015 season, when he was nearly unbeatable at the age of 27-28. Even this year, Djokovic has been in excellent form, winning four titles — albeit on a significantly abbreviated schedule compared to his epic 2015 season — and coming within one match of completing the calendar Grand Slam, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since the legendary Rod Laver did it back in 1969. 

In addition, the window for winning Grand Slams seems to have changed, as the Big Three have continued to contend, and win, tournaments and Slams deep into their 30s, while players in previous eras like Pete Sampras, who both won his last Slam and retired in his early-30s. And while younger players, like Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev have been pushing the Big Three, there has been a significant change in terms of the peak age of tennis players, which has been reflected in the ATP rankings. Just four years ago, in 2017, it marked the first time ever that five men in their 30s held the top five spots in the world rankings; 10 years prior in 2007, all of the top five players were in their early-to-mid 20s, and the top player aged-30-or-older was ranked 26 in the world. That is a far cry from the 11 players in the top 30 (and 6 in the top 15) in the ATP rankings as of May 24, 2021. 

Although many have asked who will rise from the next generation of players to reach the pinnacle of tennis, the Big Three have remained stalwart in the effort to hold the top of the rankings. It is a fair question to wonder whether the presence of the Big Three is just a unique phenomenon and huge outlier in terms of their dominance — for example, from the 2003 Wimbledon Championships to the 2021 Australian Open, the Big Three have won 58 of the 70 (83%) Grand Slam titles. While these players have had an exceptional presence in professional tennis for an extended period of time, the rise of players like Roberto Bautista Agut (first time in the top 10 at 31 years old) combined with the increased presence of players in their 30s near the top of the rankings suggests a change in terms of the peak age of tennis players — likely to later in their 20s, although it obviously depends on each player. 

BASKETBALL

Andy Feng '24

Just last year, we witnessed one of Stephen Curry’s best seasons yet at age 33: he led the league in scoring with a career-high 32 points per game and nearly carried the Warriors without Klay Thompson to the playoffs in the stacked Western Conference. In April, his hottest scoring month, he averaged over 37 points per game and drained 96 total threes, setting an NBA record for most three pointers made in a month. Just two years ago, we also saw a 35-year old LeBron James capture his 4th NBA championship and 4th Finals MVP.

At ages 33 and 35, respectively, Curry and James were at an age where most NBA players are considered to be past their basketball peak. In general, research shows that players tend to peak around the age of 27 or 28. There is no formal definition of a player’s “peak,” but by using various metrics to measure a player’s performance, such as player efficiency rating (PER), box plus-minus (BPM), and win shares (WS), research shows that players perform at the highest level at this age. In their late-20s, basketball players effectively combine their superior athletic abilities with their developed knowledge of the game. When players have only been in the NBA for a few seasons, they are typically inexperienced and need sufficient time to learn the ins-and-outs of the style of play. On the other hand, when veteran players have been in the league for many years and begin to feel the effects of aging, they gradually lose their athletic abilities, which are crucial in a sport that relies heavily on physical prowess. Thus, it makes sense that players are most productive in their late 20s.

Some of the greatest basketball players’ best individual seasons support this argument. Michael Jordan, for instance, had one of his best seasons during the 1990-91 campaign, when he was 27 years old. During that year, he won his first NBA championship and Finals MVP, his second regular-season MVP, and had one of the most efficient seasons ever. Similarly, LeBron James had his most statistically efficient and successful year during the 2012-13 season, at age-28. Like Jordan, he won regular season MVP and led his team to a title, winning Finals MVP as well. James also had one his most efficient seasons with respect to PER and field goal percentage. The aforementioned Curry also had an incredible season this past year. However, he shattered records left and right during the 2015-16 season when he was 27 years old, setting the record for most three pointers made in a season (402), topping the league in scoring and PER, and leading the Warriors to an NBA-record 73 wins during the regular season.

Taking a look at a larger sample, data also show that most elite NBA players peak around 27-28. The average age of an All-Star player and an MVP is 26.5 and 27.9, respectively. Another analysis examining All-NBA players shows that the average age is 27.7. There are, however, caveats and exceptions; not all players follow this trend. First, injuries can severely derail a player’s career, causing them to peak at an early age. A prime example is Derrick Rose, who became the youngest player ever to win MVP at age-22 in 2011. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL during the 2012 NBA Playoffs and never recovered to his pre-injury form. On the other side of the spectrum are players who peak at a much later age. For example, Steve Nash won back-to-back MVPs in 2005 and 2006 when he was 30 and 31, respectively. Using Game Score, an advanced stat that roughly measures a player’s game performance, we see that Nash peaked when he was nearly 33 years old. 

Players with different play styles can also peak at different times during their career: young, talented players relying heavily on athletic abilities tend to peak earlier, while players who rely less on physicality and more on skill may peak later or have longer, flatter curves. One reason why Curry is able to perform as well as he did five years ago is because his game depends less on athleticism and more on skill, such as three-point shooting. A final caveat is the definition of “peak” – as mentioned earlier, with the absence of a formal definition and the availability of many metrics to gauge a player’s performance, using different ones can sometimes lead to slightly different results. Still, in the end with all things considered, it seems that the peak age for a professional NBA player is around 27-28.