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Yards per Reception and Its Role in Wide Receiver Evaluation

By Michael Bond '25

Introduction

Even as the NFL becomes increasingly pass-heavy, the all-time leaders in terms of yards per reception remain far in the past. In fact, the average year for a top 100 season by yards per reception is 1966. Only three players from this millennium even crack the top 100. So, is Don Currivan’s 1947 season with the Boston Yanks the best season by a receiver ever? Are Jerry Rice and Randy Moss not top 3 receivers because they played in the league after the premier era for wide receivers? The short answer is obviously no, but the role of yards per reception in evaluating wide receivers goes far deeper. To explain it numerically, this project looks at receiving stats from the past three seasons and specifically analyzes players with the highest yards/reception and All-Pro wide receivers.

Methods

A few receiving stats are the focus of the project. First off, receiving yards per reception is rather simple, dividing a player’s receiving yards by their number of receptions. A similar stat, receiving yards per target, does the same but includes every time the receiver is targeted by the quarterback. Finally, catch percentage divides the receiver’s receptions by their targets. Players are considered independently for each season instead of their totals for the three-year stretch. All stats are from Pro Football Reference.

Results

Three groups were compared: All-Pro WRs (representative of the elite WRs from each season), the top 10 players (single season) by yards per reception, and the top 150 players by single season receiving yards (representative of above average pass-catchers).

Type Receptions Total Yards Yards/Rec Yards/Tgt Catch%
Top 10 by Yards/Rec 49.4 931 18.9 10.8 57%
All-Pro WRs 113.6 1,441 12.9 9.4 73%
Top 150 by Total Yards 77.4 1,006 13.3 8.8 67%

The results are not all that surprising. All-Pro wide receivers in general have more yards, more receptions, and a higher catch percentage than the other groups. However, they have lower yards per reception stats. The top 10 in terms of yards per reception have the lowest stats across the board except for yards per reception and target, although the drop from yards per reception to yards per target is a noteworthy 43% change.

Analysis

The first correlation that the project investigated was yards per reception versus total receiving yards. It would make sense that players with higher yards per reception would end up with more total yards, but there is actually very little correlation. While some players do have high stats in both categories, there are also many players that have high total yards with low yards per reception and others that go for 15+ yards per reception but do not even breach 1000 yards receiving. A perfect example of an outlier is Michael Thomas who led the league in receiving yards but also set the record for receptions in a season in 2019, leading to a lower yards per reception stat.

The second relationship investigated, comparing catch percentage and yards per reception, shows a much stronger correlation. In general, as the catch percentage increases, the yards per reception decreases. This makes sense as players who are catching the ball at higher rates are not often going deep downfield. However, elite WRs remain above the trendline, demonstrating their ability to catch passes at a high clip while still gaining valuable yards. Of the 8 wide receivers on the All-Pro teams over the three season stretch, 7 of their seasons are above average in this regard.

Conclusion

While yards per reception is not representative of which receivers are the most valuable, it can provide insight on a player’s role in the offense when compared with other stats. Certain players fill a high-risk high-reward role, putting up 15+ yards per reception but not catching those passes at a high rate. Elite receivers do not always put up the most yards per reception, but their high catch percentage and usage leads them to be the most valuable players.

By comparing yards per reception with catch percentage, an NFL general manager could better evaluate the risk and reward a player brings to the offense. Even if a player does not have the highest catch percentage, they can make up for it in terms of yards per each reception. As such, certain players can fill incredibly valuable roles in the offense even if they are used only in a limited fashion. The best receivers ultimately find a way to catch the most passes at the highest rate and thus put up the most yards. These stats are not all encompassing, and it would be wrong to say that elite wide receivers do not also need to be potent deep threats. However, offensive efficiency is an important consideration when looking to evaluate players and NFL offenses.

In the future, quarterback performance could also be involved in evaluating receiving efficiency. Certain quarterbacks and offenses are more aggressive when it comes to throwing deep downfield. A perfect example is the Kansas City Chiefs, exemplified by Tyreek Hill leading the All-Pro receivers in terms of yards per reception due to his speed and connection with star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Those teams may want to target less-expensive receivers that balance a high yards per reception with a reasonably high catch percentage, towards the topleft of the second chart. Other teams, like the 2019-20 Saints led by an aging Drew Brees, could target players with top notch catch percentages since deep-threats are not as valuable to their offense.