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An Analysis of the NFL’s First-Year Head Coaches

Last offseason was a busy one for the NFL’s head coaching carousel, with seven new head coaches hired around the league. Our DSA club members go through the hires one-by-one and analyze how each will fare in their tenures with their new teams.

Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons

Vice President Eli Pattison ’22

The Arthur Smith era in Atlanta promises to be much different from that of Dan Quinn. Smith proved his own merit as the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans for the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Last season in Tennessee, Smith’s offense finished fourth in total points, third in yards, and fourth in expected points, according to Pro Football Reference. In 2019, his first year with the team, his offense finished in the top-twelve of the league across all three metrics. He now takes over the reins of an Atlanta offense that retooled after a disappointing 2020 campaign. Julio Jones is now catching passes in Tennessee, but the addition of rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, along with the free-agent additions of the explosive Cordarrelle Patterson and the dependable Mike Davis, should give the Atlanta offense new energy. Coupled with Smith’s highly regarded play calling, these additions should inject life into an offense that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL last year in total yards and has not been the same since Kyle Shanahan left for San Francisco. Smith’s role in revitalizing Ryan Tannehill’s career in Tennessee also offers hope that he can help the former MVP churn out a few more good years. While Smith no longer has the luxury of having Derrick Henry on his team, his track record and play-calling acumen should eventually lead to successful offenses and winning performances in Atlanta.

Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

Micheal Lu ’25 

This offseason, the Chargers hired first-time head coach Brandon Staley. Staley replaced Anthony Lynn, who led the Chargers to the playoffs in only one of his four seasons. He will be tasked with managing the defense and helping young star quarterback Justin Herbert lead the franchise. While Staley doesn't have the same coaching experience as other new hires, such as Urban Meyer, his resume is certainly worthy of a head-coaching job. His NFL experience is relatively limited, having only coached in the NFL since 2017. He worked under John Fox and Matt Nagy from 2017-18 as an outside linebackers coach for the Chicago Bears, and he coached the same position under Vic Fangio for the Denver Broncos in 2019. Then, the following year, he became the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams under Sean McVay. 

Despite his limited experience, Staley has consistently helped his team achieve strong defensive results. Since 2017, his defensive units have ranked ninth, first, tenth, and first, respectively, according to ProFootball Focus. His 2020 Rams defense led the NFL in both points allowed and total yards. Not only is he tasked with building the Chargers defense, but he also must help his young star quarterback Justin Herbert grow. Staley’s experience as a college quarterback should allow him to manage and foster the development of his ultra-talented signal-caller. 

So far, the Chargers' season has been a mixed bag. As of the end of Week 8, the Chargers had a 4-3 record with a strong start before increasing struggles in Weeks 6-8. From Weeks 1-5, the Chargers looked strong, with Justin Hebert looking like an early MVP candidate. However, a 34-6 blowout loss against the Ravens and a loss to the mediocre Patriots in Weeks 6 and 8, respectively, show the rougher stretch the team has experienced as of late. 

Staley’s defense is ranked a less-than-ideal 17th, with the offense ranked 15th in the NFL. These ranks aren’t terrible but given Staley’s defensive acumen and the presence of stars like Joey Bosa and Derwin James, the defensive performance has been disappointing. Similarly, the Chargers’ offense, given its wealth of talent, has been lackluster. With all the talent at skill positions, one would expect the Chargers’ offense to be performing at a higher level than 15th in the NFL. Offensive innovation has, like every other ranking, been mediocre with the Chargers coming at 15th in the NFL in pre-snap motion. 

The main issue that points to the mediocre rankings for the offense and defense? Inconsistency. The Chargers’ offense has put up 28, 30, and 47-point performances but has also had poor 17- and 6-point performances. Likewise, the defense has held the Raiders to 14 points and the high-powered Cowboys’ offense (ranked 2nd in yards per play) to just 20 points but gave up 42 points to the Browns. This inconsistency has plagued the team. To right the ship and move the Chargers towards a playoff berth, Staley must improve the consistency of both the offense and defense.

Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions

Mikey Bond ’25

A new era of Lions football has started just like many past ones: consistent losing. After the locker room struggles and failure of Matt Patricia’s tenure, the Lions organization chose Dan Campbell to lead the team as head coach. While the Lions have yet to win a game this season, it would be unfair to completely judge Motor City Dan Campbell just yet. 

Campbell played ten seasons in the NFL as a tight end before starting his coaching career, where he most recently was an assistant head coach and tight ends coach for the New Orleans Saints. His experience as a tight ends coach has certainly helped bring out the already-burgeoning talent of T.J. Hockenson, who has improved his numbers across the board this season while making up 20% of the team’s receiving production, according to Pro Football Reference. His share of the receiving yards this year is greater than all tight ends on the team combined in 2020. 

However, Hockenson is one of few bright spots on an otherwise terrible Lions roster. Under center, Jared Goff has shown little sign that he is the long-term answer at quarterback and sits at 28th in the league in terms of yards-per-attempt and 26th in passer rating, according to Pro Football Reference. Making problems worse is the team’s mediocre offensive line, which ranks 24th in the league in terms of adjusted line yards, per Football Outsiders. D’Andre Swift, the second-year running back from Georgia, averages 3.2 yards-per-carry, sitting 50th in the league. While the Lions are out of contention, Campbell has at least shown the ability to bring out the talent in players such as Hockenson, and his competitive spirit is certainly unquestionable

David Culley, Houston Texans

Vice President Eli Pattison ’22

The David Culley hiring in Houston was a head-scratcher for many fans around the NFL, and through the first half of this season, the hesitation expressed by many has been deserved. Prior to hiring Culley, the Texans were seen as easily the most dysfunctional organization in the league due to their depleted roster, limited draft capital, and ongoing saga surrounding quarterback Deshaun Watson. Tapping the ex-wide receiver coach of the Baltimore Ravens to be their next head coach certainly did nothing to increase the franchise’s credibility. Culley’s resume is unusually thin to warrant one of the 32 most coveted jobs in all of football, especially considering the potential availability of more established candidates such as the Chiefs Eric Bieniemy and Bills Brian Daboll. It’s very possible that some of the higher profile candidates turned down the opportunity to be a head coach for the Houston dumpster fire, but surely there was a more exciting option out there than the 66-year-old Culley. 

If you look close enough, you can find the reasons the Texans liked Culley. He is well-liked and energetic, and the team culture under him seems likely to be much more stable and much less toxic than it was under previous coach Bill O’Brien. 

And the good news for Culley is that it won’t be hard to improve upon the performance of the Texans’ offense from 2020 under O’Brien, even if he’ll have to do it without Deshaun Watson. Culley learned from Andy Reid’s West Coast offense coaching tree that emphasizes the passing game, yet Culley remains a strong advocate for a physical running game, such as the one he helped coach for Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. Texans fans are hoping he can bring a spark to Houston’s run game, which ranked 31st in the league in rushing yards and 30th in rushing touchdowns in 2020. Additionally, their rush Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ranked dead last in the league last season. If Culley can bring more balance to the offense, maybe — just maybe — there is hope for more success.

However, none of these justifications change the fact that Culley’s hiring was uninspiring. With better options out there for an organization badly in need of a jolt, Texans fans have every reason to be dismayed about the future of the organization.

Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles

Kai Sane '21

Eagles GM Howie Roseman and the rest of the Philadelphia Eagles organization have turned to Nick Sirianni to lead the franchise as head coach. Sirianni follows the complicated tenure of Doug Pederson, who led the Eagles to their first Super Bowl title in more than 50 years during the 2017-18 season yet found himself out of a job following a dismal 4-11-1 campaign last season. Sirianni is tasked with mentoring young signal-caller Jalen Hurts, a dynamic dual-threat quarterback from the University of Alabama with a raw, but extensive, skillset.

A former DIII wide receiver, Nick Sirianni is an offensive-minded coach who has served under notable NFL coaches including Todd Haley, Mike McCoy, and, most recently, Frank Reich. Throughout his time in the NFL, Sirianni has served in various positions on the offensive side of the ball, including as quarterback coach, wide receivers coach, and offensive coordinator. In particular, Sirianni is highly regarded for his wide receiver coaching — a highly useful trait given the young, talented corps of wide receivers that the Eagles possess, including rookie Devonta Smith, the Heisman winner from Alabama. Although it has taken some time, Sirianni’s offensive prowess has begun to show up on the scoreboard in recent weeks. While the Eagles ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of points-per-game (PPG) for the first four to five weeks of the season, they are now sitting just outside the top 10 at 25.7 PPG. Philadelphia is also currently near the middle of the pack in yards per game (YPG), but the team’s passing and rushing statistics differ quite greatly. While the Eagles are top three in the league in terms of rushing yards-per-game, they rank in the bottom seven in passing yards-per-game. In addition, Sirianni seems to be running a relatively mundane offensive scheme, as the Eagles rank 27th in the league in pre-snap motion. Overall, the Eagles seem to be showing marked improvement on the offensive side of the ball as the season has progressed, but the efficacy of the passing game still needs to be addressed. 

While Nick Sirianni is not known for his defensive prowess, the Eagles have been a solid defensive team this season. Led by veterans Fletcher Cox and Darius Slay, the Eagles defense is ranked in the top half of the league, allowing just over 350 YPG. The Eagles are noticeably better against the pass than the run, ranking in the top half of the league in pass defense, yet the bottom half of the league in run defense. 

As the Eagles move forward, they will need to figure out how to design an offensive scheme that meshes well with the skillsets of Jalen Hurts. When Hurts entered the league last year, he struggled mightily with intermediate routes, and the same seems to be the case this year, even with talented young receivers like Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, and Quez Watkins. Finally, the Eagles need to find a way to ignite their running game with their running backs, as this will open up the playbook and free up running lanes for Jalen Hurts. Despite ranking in the top-three in the league in rushing yards per game, the Eagles have struggled to get their run game going with their running backs. And although Jalen Hurts has been a particularly effective runner this year, the Eagles have had trouble establishing the running game in several games this year. Against the Cowboys earlier this season, the Philly only ran 3 running plays for their tailbacks. Moving forward, a run-pass split of this nature is untenable if the Eagles want to develop a dynamic offense that overpowers defenses. The Eagles recent results indicate that their offense is functioning more effectively, as they have scored 32.7 PPG over their last three contests, but maintaining a clear balance between the run and the pass will be critical to building a successful team that can make a playoff push in December. 

Robert Saleh, New York Jets

Rylan Tribush ’22

After two disappointing seasons with head coach Adam Gase, the New York Jets’ ownership decided to move on. Over the offseason, Robert Saleh was named the new head coach and tasked with turning around the franchise along with general manager Joe Douglas. 

After playing tight end at Northern Michigan, Saleh made his way up through several college and NFL teams before becoming the defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers in 2017. He made an immediate impact, quickly transforming one of the worst defensive units into one of the most fearsome groups in football. In 2019, Saleh’s third year as coordinator, the team ranked first in fewest passing yards allowed, fifth in sacks, and sixth in takeaways, while appearing in the Super Bowl. This bodes well for a Jets team that has not played well defensively. Last season, the Jets ranked 26th in points allowed, 24th in yards allowed, and 24th in turnovers. With a rookie quarterback in Zack Wilson and a new offensive coordinator in Mike LaFleur, the Jets clearly view 2021 as a rebuilding year. Despite relatively low expectations, the Jets have played tough thus far in the season, claiming wins over the Titans and the Bengals. While the team is low on talent overall and Wilson is making plenty of rookie mistakes, Saleh appears to be building the Jets foundation to the right direction.

Urban Meyer, Jacksonville Jaguars

Mikey Bond ’25

To lead the next era of Jaguars football, majority owner Shahid Khan and the Jacksonville front office have put their trust in Urban Meyer. Meyer, one of the greatest college football coaches ever, who won National Championships with both the Florida Gators and Ohio State Buckeyes, will be taking on his first major coaching position in the NFL. 

Facing Meyer is the well-documented hurdle of adjusting to coaching at the professional level and the challenge of turning around one of the worst teams in the entire league – the Jaguars boasted both a bottom five offense and defense in the 2020 season, according to Pro-Football Reference. This season will also mark the first time in decades that Meyer has had a consistently less talented team than his competition, as he enjoyed an average top-four recruiting class while at Ohio State, based on rankings provided by 247Sports. The most important aspect of Meyer’s tenure will certainly be developing the Jaguars No. 1 overall draft pick, quarterback Trevor Lawrence. 

To utilize their new generational talent, the Jaguars have adopted a heavily pass-focused scheme, continuing a trend in Meyer’s tenure that saw his offenses increasingly run more passing plays. Early this season, Lawrence had low completion percentages and high turnover rates, but Lawrenece has improved dramatically from Weeks 4-6. While the Jags season has been marred by controversy, mostly related to Meyer’s off-field actions, they have been improving every single week. They are by no means ready to contend anytime in the near future, but there is reason for optimism if Lawrence and Meyer click as a duo.