MY GOOGLE SCHOLAR PAGE
Books
Final Solutions: Mass Killing and Genocide in the 20th Century
Ethnic hatreds or discrimination, undemocratic systems of government, and dysfunctions in society play a much smaller role in mass killing and genocide than is commonly assumed. Rather, the impetus for mass killing usually originates from a relatively small group of powerful leaders and is often carried out without the active support of broader society. Mass killing is a brutal political or military strategy designed to accomplish leaders’ most important objectives, counter threats to their power, and solve their most difficult problems.
Sustainable Security
with Jeremi Suri
As the world shifts away from the unquestioned American hegemony that followed in the wake of the Cold War, the United States is likely to face new kinds of threats and sharper resource constraints than it has in the past. However, the country’s alliances, military institutions, and national security strategy have changed little since the Cold War. American foreign and defense policies, therefore, should be assessed for their fitness for achieving sustainable national security amidst the dynamism of the international political economy, changing domestic politics, and even a changing climate. This book brings together sixteen leading scholars from across political science, history, and political economy to highlight a range of American security considerations that deserve a larger role in both scholarship and strategic decision-making. This interdisciplinary volume sets an agenda for future scholarship that links politics, economics, and history in pursuit of sustainable security for the United States – and greater peace and stability for Americans and non-Americans alike.
Selected Papers
Animals Are People Too: EXPLAINING Variation in Support for Animal Rights
with Yon Soo Park
Why do some people support animal rights more than others? Is there a connection between support for animal rights and support for human rights? In this article, we examine several potential explanations for the variation in recognition of and respect for animal rights. We find a strong connection between recognition of human rights and animal rights both at the individual attitude level and at the U.S. state policy level. Our results demonstrate that support for animal rights strongly links to support for disadvantaged or marginalized human populations, including LGBT groups, racial minorities, undocumented immigrants, and the poor.
Revisiting Hiroshima in Iran: American Attitudes about Nuclear Weapons and Non-Combatant Immunity
with Scott Sagan
Would we drop the bomb again? Numerous polls demonstrate that U.S. public approval of President Harry Truman’s decision to drop the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki has declined steadily since 1945. We argue that these polls are a misleading guide to understanding the real views of the American public about the use of nuclear weapons and the killing of noncombatants today. Such polls fail to place respondents into a mind-set in which they are forced to make a trade-off between risking U.S. soldiers’ lives and using nuclear weapons – precisely the kind of trade-off that was at the heart of Truman’s decision in 1945. To more accurately gauge American views on the use of nuclear weapons, we asked Americans to consider a detailed hypothetical scenario involving a military confrontation against Iran. We found that a majority of Americans would approve of using nuclear weapons first against Iran, killing as many as two million Iranian civilians, if they believed that such use would save the lives of 20,000 U.S. soldiers.
Atomic Aversion: Experimental Evidence on Taboos, Traditions, and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons
with Scott Sagan and Daryl Press
Is there a “taboo” against using nuclear weapons? In this paper we use an original survey experiment to evaluate American attitudes regarding nuclear use. We find that the public has only a weak aversion to using nuclear weapons and that this aversion has few characteristics of an “unthinkable” behavior or taboo. Instead, public attitudes about whether to use nuclear weapons are driven largely by consequentialist considerations of military utility. Americans’ willingness to use nuclear weapons increases dramatically when nuclear weapons provide advantages over conventional weapons in destroying critical targets. Americans who oppose the use of nuclear weapons seem to do so primarily for fear of setting a negative precedent that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons by other states against the United States or its allies in the future.
The True Costs of Humanitarian Intervention
Intervening militarily to save lives abroad often sounds good on paper, but the record has not been promising. The ethical calculus involved is almost always complicated by messy realities on the ground, and the opportunity costs of such missions are massive. Well-meaning countries could save far more lives by helping refugees and victims of natural disasters and funding public health.
Ongoing Projects
The Early Warning Project
Learn about my work with the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum to develop a public early warning system for genocide and mass killing.
TRIGGERS FOR MASS KILLING AND GENOCIDE
This report describes the results of a research project designed to identify “triggering events” for mass killing and to quantify how useful real-time monitoring of these events might be for improving forecasts of atrocities. I explore the effects of 10 potential triggering events on the likelihood and timing of experiencing a mass killing. All of the trigger types were more common one year before a mass killing than two years before and all were lower or equal two years before than 5 years before. National leadership changes, for example, are 2.75 times more common one year before a mass killing than two years before and 4.9 times more common than 5 years before. Major attacks and coups are twice as likely one year before a mass killing than two years before and 8.3 times more common than 5 years before.