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Matthew Yglesias has two posts on whether the Democrats should participate in the legislative process on Social Security or remain united in opposition to any action by the Republicans. From the first of these posts:

It's not so much a question of conservatives versus moderates, as it is a question of people who happen to have a bug in their pants about Social Security versus those who are nervous about the political risks here and who have other agendas they'd like to advance. The only really feasible way to put a stop to this is to make sure that the nervous nellies stay very nervous. Key to that is making sure that unlike with, say, the Medicare bill, they can't drape their vote in even the merest veneer of bipartisanship.

In the second post, he endorses the following:

"Message No. 1 to Americans: When it comes to Social Security, the sky is not falling," said the Senate's new assistant Democratic leader, Richard Durbin (D-Ill.). "There are people in this administration who have an agenda that is not friendly to Social Security."

And then he adds:

Exactly. Message number one is that Social Security is healthy and successful. There is no crisis.

I'll look to address (again) the substance of the "there is no crisis" refrain in another post. In this post, I'll focus on why I think this is not a winning strategy for Democrats. I'll be very frank about my bias here. I have no partisan interest in the Democratic party per se, but it would be nice if someday it fielded a candidate for President who inspired me to vote for him or her.

First, the focus group results that I have seen show that very few approaches to Social Security cause as negative a reaction as denying that Social Security has a problem that needs to be fixed. If you don't like the idea of adding personal accounts to Social Security, then argue against it. But to go beyond that and suggest that there is no need to reform the system (leaving aside for now whether the current predicament merits the label of a "crisis") is unwise. I think that most people understand that the aging of the Baby Boom will reshape our fiscal landscape. They don't have much tolerance for people who seem to doubt that widely held view. On the other side of the issue, I have sequenced my arguments on this on the blog very precisely to make sure that every reader knows that I think the key issue is solvency and not personal accounts.

Second, there's an old saying in Washington, "You can't beat something with nothing." I hated having this quoted to me by policy folks in the White House last year--it caused otherwise sensible small-government people to propose all sorts of expansions of the federal government. Not very Republican of them. But there is a big danger to the Democrats who suggest that unity in opposition is a sensible policy for a (shrinking?) minority party in the Congress. If Democrats elected to the legislature refuse to engage in the legislative enterprise, then the rationale for re-electing them disappears. We saw some of that in 2004: the Democrats lost ground in Congress and Senator Daschle was defeated even though he held the leadership position. Had he used that position to be something other than the President's chief obstructionist, he may have stood a better chance.

There are plenty of ways the Democrats could constructively engage. For example, they could insist that, in exchange for going along with personal accounts of the size suggested by the President's Commission (e.g., 4% of payroll up to $1000), solvency be restored not through reducing benefits across the board but by raising the ages of full and early retirement (a much better policy). To cover themselves politically, they could even insist that this change be proposed on a bipartisan basis. If they did that, they would have dramatically improved the system compared to its present status. And they would also come a step closer to getting the "Grownup Republican" vote that they needed in November. As an alternative example, they could shore up the support of their base if they proposed something like this.

I don't want a replay of the Medicare bill any more than Matt does.

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This announcement was a pleasant surprise on Friday. I had the opportunity to be in a few meetings with Sam while he was the Deputy Secretary at Commerce, mainly about pension issues. I would characterize him as very smart. How would I define "smart" in this context?

Many of the meetings that senior officials (like Sam) have with junior officials (like I was) involve the junior officials presenting complicated issues that are in their areas of expertise. There is no presumption that the senior official is an expert in every single area on which s/he might be briefed. I measure smart as how quickly the senior official is able to figure out the issue from the briefing. Sam is very smart.

I wasn't the only one who was surprised on Friday. Via Outside the Beltway, I find this Reuters story with a great quote:

"Sam who? I've never heard of this guy," said one energy industry lobbyist, who added Bodman was virtually unknown to Washington energy policy insiders.

Even better--unconnected to the energy industry lobby in addition to being very smart. In his nomination speech, the President made the following remarks (with my highlights):

During the next four years, we will continue to enhance our economic security and our national security through sound energy policy. We will pursue more energy close to home, in our own country and in our own hemisphere, so that we're less dependent on energy from unstable parts of the world. We will continue improving pipelines and gas terminals and power lines, so that energy flow is reliable. We will develop and deploy the latest technology to provide a new generation of cleaner and more efficient energy sources. We will promote strong conservation measures.

There are two things I like about the highlighted sentence. First, he did not say that we should pursue energy independence. There is no reason to insist that energy imports are zero--only that we do not continue our excessive reliance on fuel from unstable parts of the world (which corrupts our broader policy and theirs). Second, he said "in our own hemisphere" in addition to "in our own country." Okay, I could do without the reference to drilling in ANWR. But I like the idea of other sources of energy in our hemisphere--particularly ethanol made from Brazilian sugar. Let's hope that this is what they have in mind.

In addition to the post at Outside the Beltway, see this comprehensive post at Trolling in Shallow Water.

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On Monday, the President nominated Carlos Gutierrez, CEO of Kellogg, to be the next Secretary of Commerce. From all accounts, Mr. Gutierrez is a wonderful American success story and an exceptional businessman. He breaks a pattern of promoting from within and seems to have had few ostensible ties to Republican politics. My hope for our new Secretary is that he is an advocate of free trade and not particularly beholden to interests groups like the National Association of Manufacturers, who in my view look to the government way too often for trade protection. I'll watch his confirmation hearings with that in mind.

Today, the President nominated Mike Johanns, Governor of Nebraska, to be the Secretary of Agriculture. He is not an insider and also seems like a successful executive. My hope for our new Secretary is that he is up to the task in two key areas. First, I am concerned that we are not moving fast enough to identify and contain mad cow disease and otherwise protect the food supply from disease. A lot of the remedies (like more testing of the herds) would act like a tax on beef production. Not a popular policy for the governor of Nebraska. Second, I want all tariffs and other barriers to the import of sugar from other countries to be eliminated. These barriers are a giveaway to the corn industry, and they are, in my view, the reason why we are lagging in our development of ethanol as a renewable fuel source. We should be making it out of Brazilian sugar, not import-protected domestic corn, at a much more competitive price. Again, dropping these barriers would seem to be a tough sell for the governor of Nebraska. This particular endorsement doesn't make me too optimistic, but I'll reserve judgement until I see the new Secretary in action.