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Category: travel

Published on Leave a comment on Economic Rebound — My Annual Unscientific Observation

It is a Samwick family custom to spend the December holidays in South Florida each year.  I grew up in Palm Beach County, and my in-laws are nearby as well.  This year, Mother Nature cooperated by keeping the winter weather at bay on the days we traveled, and JetBlue and Avis had excellent customer service.  Seriously, that must be what the trip to heaven is like, at least if it starts out in Vermont during winter.

Travel is always a fun time for first-hand data gathering on economic outcomes, even if all the data are anecdotal.  Here are four things I noticed:

  1. Prices are higher, particularly for travel services with less elastic demand.  On our trip, that was the airfare and the rental cars primarily, but also restaurants that we typically frequent and stores where we did some shopping.
  2. Venues are near capacity but not bursting.  Places that we went had the feeling of being full but not crowded.
  3. There was less traffic than I would have expected, particularly given #2.  The only time we were delayed was when there was an accident.
  4. There was no construction of any consequence.

The third seems to be the result of a large amount of infrastructure spending, particularly I-95 but also many ancillary roads, during the past decade.  It may also have been due to different traffic patterns during the holiday season, but my comparison is to prior holiday seasons.  The first two are not what you would expect from an economy in the aftermath of a bust that has not yet found its bottom.  The next direction is clearly positive.  But the fourth item is the one that makes me think that whatever positive movement we get, it will not be very large for quite a while.

Outside of these travel-related observations, I have been getting an unusually high amount of promotional e-mails from online retailers this season.  They are either becoming very good at figuring out that I need new socks, or they are quite desperate.

What were your holiday season observations and experiences related to the economy?

Published on Leave a comment on Econopalooza Blogging

I am in New Orleans for the ASSA meetings, or what my wife calls "Econopalooza." I am not on Dartmouth's recruiting committee, so I am soaking up as much as I can from the sessions on neuroeconomics and matching theory, two interesting fields where I've got a lot to learn.

This is my first trip to post-Katrina New Orleans. Compared to the last time I was here, it feels quite empty.

Published on Leave a comment on Dynamic Scoring in Unusual Places

It may not yet be a staple of federal budget policy, but dynamic scoring has come to the New Hampshire/Massachusetts border. From Friday's Associated Press:

The long-planned expansion of Interstate 93 has been pushed a little further down the road. A federal judge ruled yesterday that before they can move ahead with the project, state and federal highway officials must do more work to study the population growth that would be spurred by the widening itself.

The ruling was a victory for environmentalists who argue that widening the road to four lanes between Manchester and the Massachusetts border would itself cause population growth that will lessen the usefulness of the widening, congest secondary roads and cause air pollution.

Of course, it is only a partial equilibrium analysis. Where does the additional population come from? Does their relocating to southern New Hampshire alleviate traffic problems elsewhere, and should that benefit be considered as well?

On the substance of the case, the Conservation Law Foundation is arguing that the resolution of the traffic problems ought to include commuter rail options. I'm sympathetic to the point. It has always been a bit of a surprise that there is no rail link between Boston and Concord, New Hampshire, given the proximity and the number of commuters who now go by car.

Published on Leave a comment on Under the Sea

Before leaving the Hawaii retroblog, I thought I'd share two pictures of the submarine ride that my son and I took. There are a few sunken treasures 80 - 100 feet below the surface of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Oahu. Here are two pictures of a ship (there are also man-made reefs and an airplane fuselage, to say nothing of the wildlife):


Unfortunately, the two turtles sitting on top of the ship didn't make it into this picture:

Enjoy!

Published on Leave a comment on Getting There Was More than Half the …

For my second to last post about our trip to Hawaii, I wanted to point out something about energy consumption and CO2 emissions that I had not previously appreciated.

We flew from Boston to San Francisco (2704 miles) and then San Francisco to Honolulu (2398 miles), for a total of 5102 miles each way or 10204 miles total. How much fuel did we use (assigning us our per capita share for the plane as a whole)?

This page cites an FAA estimate of 48 miles-per-gallon-per-seat and notes that a gallon of jet fuel and a gallon of gasoline create about the same amount of CO2 emissions. This means that as a family, our share of the fuel used was about 4 x 10204 / 48 = 850 gallons. Let's compare that to two other fuel numbers around the Samwick household.

First, I estimate that we drive our cars no more than 1000 miles a month on average and get at least 20 miles per gallon on average, resulting in gasoline consumption of no more than (12 x 1000 / 20) = 600 gallons per year.

Second, we have used about 1100 gallons of #2 fuel oil to heat our home in each of the past few years. (What can I say, we like to be comfortable?) This page shows the CO2 emissions by fuel type, putting the fuel oil on a par with jet fuel, which are both a bit higher than gasoline.

One (glorious) trip to Hawaii used 75% of the fuel we use to heat our home or 140% of the fuel we use to power our cars, with corresponding amounts of CO2 emitted.

As it pertains to energy and environmental policy, this example shows how important it is to be comprehensive in our attempts to reduce oil demand. The most straightforward way to do that is to levy a tax on all fuel products derived from petroleum. It allows abatement to occur at every possible margin--by flying, driving, or heating less or by using technologies that are more fuel efficient.

Published on Leave a comment on Tourism and Hawaii’s Economy

Frequent reader and commenter Nathan Kaufman points us to this interesting recap of how hard Hawaii's economy was hit by the reduction in travel in the year after 9/11.

It seems like, as of a few years ago, it had rebounded, and in my earlier post, I suggested that a new decline is emerging. Nathan further suggests a link to the Japanese economy, which I agree merits a further look.

Published on Leave a comment on The First Mile

Continuing with my Hawaii retroblogging, it was no easy task, though easier than I thought it would be, to get from Hanover to Honolulu with two young children.

The toughest part was literally the first mile, from the hotel at Logan airport in Boston to the gate. At five o'clock in the morning on the first Saturday of the summer, the terminal was an absolute mob scene. Not quite at the level of my experiences in Beijing or Delhi or even Toronto on a summer travel weekend during a labor strike. We left ourselves two hours and made it with little time to spare.

We flew United by way of San Francisco, and all of the usual inconveniences were there, but the planes were filled to capacity, the tickets weren't cheap, and the service was generally okay. It was more apparent what was behind recent good news in the financial markets for the company. So I assume the airline is making as much money as it is ever going to, unless it can magically lower fuel prices or overcome historic management challenges.

Another interesting event--the flight from Honolulu back to San Francisco was the first time I recall having women as both the captain and the first officer.

Published on Leave a comment on Retroblogging Hawaii

The Voxfamily just returned from a week in Hawaii. I leave the blogging at home on family vacations, so I'll share some of the experience this week.

We spent the whole week on Oahu, which contains about 80 percent of the state's population. We stayed at the biggest resort in Waikiki, which was a wonderful place. Since we live in Hanover, we have no need to "get away from it all" on vacation. We actually like to be among people and on this trip deliberately tried to avoid an isolated feeling. Even so, I found each place we visited to be not quite unspoiled, but far less crowded than I expected for the first week of summer.

It seems like I am not alone in my assessment. This story from last week's USA Today reports that convention bookings at the new Hawaii Convention Center (shown below) are down.

According to the story:

Even paradise, it seems, can have a down year.

Only 16 out-of-state conventions are booked in 2008 for the $350 million Hawaii Convention Center, which was built by the state on the edge of Waikiki nine years ago to attract more business conferences.

The number is less than half the 35 conventions that are booked for 2007. In 2006, there were 37.

The culprits? The story continues:

Waikiki's hotel prices, second in the country only to New York City's, are a contributing factor, says Paul Brewbaker, Bank of Hawaii's chief economist.

Through May, the average room rate in Hawaii was more than $198 a night, according to consultants Hospitality Advisors, based in Hawaii.

The high prices seem to be having an impact on quantity:

Hawaiian tourism has been virtually flat the past several years. The state welcomed about 7.5 million visitors in both 2005 and 2006, according to the state Department of Business Economic Development & Tourism. This year, it forecasts 7.6 million visitors.

However, the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization predicts that overall tourism numbers will actually drop by 0.2% this year.

Meanwhile, overall tourism to the United States has steadily grown since 2003. Last year, the USA received 51.1 million tourists, and officials expect a 3% increase this year. Kathryn Goldstein, spokeswoman for Meeting Professionals International, a Dallas-based trade group, said concerns over Hawaii as a convention location might depend on the issues facing a specific group.

So look for prices of trips to the Aloha State to fall over time.

Published on Leave a comment on Hints for the Plains Traveler

I know I complain a lot about the hassles of modern travel. I picked up a pamphlet from a Wells Fargo History exhibit yesterday that adds a little perspective. From the Omaha Herald in 1877:

  1. The best seat inside a stagecoach is the one next to the driver ... you will get less than half the bumps and jars than on any other seat. When any old "sly Elph," who traveled thousands of miles on coaches, offers through sympathy to exchange his back or middle seat with you, don't do it.
  2. Never ride in cold weather with tight boots or shoes, nor close-fitting gloves. Bathe your feet before starting in cold weather, and wear loose overshoes and gloves two or three sizes too large.
  3. When the driver asks you to get off and walk, do it without grumbling. He will not request it unless absolutely necessary. If a team runs away, sit still and take your chances; if you jump, nine times out of ten you will be hurt.
  4. In very cold weather, abstain entirely from liquor while on the road; a man will freeze twice as quick while under its influence.
  5. Don't growl at food stations; stage companies generally provide the best they can get. Don't keep the stage waiting; many a virtuous man has lost his character by so doing.
  6. Spit on the leeward side of the coach. If you have anything to take in a bottle, pass it around; a man who drinks by himself in such a case is lost to all human feeling. Provide stimulants before starting; ranch whisky is not always nectar. Don't smoke a strong pipe inside especially early in the morning.
  7. Don't swear, nor lop over on your neighbor when sleeping. Don't ask how far it is to the next station until you get there.
  8. Never attempt to fire a gun or pistol while on the road, it may frighten the team; and the careless handling and cocking of the weapon makes nervous people nervous. Don't discuss politics or religion, nor point out places on the road where horrible murders have been committed.
  9. Don't linger too long at the pewter wash basin at the station. Don't grease your hair before starting or dust will stick there in sufficient quantities to make a respectable 'tater' patch. Tie a silk handkerchief around your neck to keep out dust and prevent sunburns. A little glycerin is good in case of chapped hands.
  10. Don't imagine for a moment you are going on a pic-nic; expect annoyance, discomfort and some hardships. If you are disappointed, thank heaven.

Not too much gets lost in the retelling. Good advice even today.

UPDATE: Some indication that the above may be fake but accurate.

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