I did various interviews last week including one on the World at One when I said that a major part of the story behind the UK’s woeful economic performance and high inflation was Brexit. The interviewer responded that “others would disagree with that.” I interjected, that they would have to come up with some other explanation on why UK performance has been so hopeless. Of course it is the same Brexiteers who are just talking nonsense.
Of course there is another explanation that has made matters much worse which is that UK policymakers, including at the Treasury and the Bank of England have been utterly hopeless. The Tories voted for Truss who had a shorter shelf life than a lettuce. She consulted nobody I have been told by the entire pension sector and the Cabinet Office who had no idea what lunacy was coming. My only surprise was how quickly the UK economy collapsed into shambles. But these people were the ones who lied about the benefits of Brexit – there are of course none. Truss never did go from Mrs Stupid to Mrs Sensible. Markets don’t like clueless amateurs or right-wing think tanks like the IEA who supported the trickledown laughable nonsense the markets hated – who still haven’t denied they re funded by the Russians.
The rate increase this week by the 7 MPC backward looking dopes was a huge error. Their job is to look forward to the forecast horizon and they are still expecting collapsing inflation in their own forecasts and in their statement. Their own forecast form the May Monetary Policy Report and in the segment released last week says cut rates.
I was struck today by two columns by old pals of mine who think the same
Bill Keegan in the Observer spot on as ever
“The truth that dare not speak its name in certain circles is that the reason why inflation is so much higher here than in other countries is Brexit; the referendum was followed by a dramatic fall in the pound, which raised all import prices, not least food from the EU. Not only did this have nothing to do with the Bank, but the governor at the time, Mark Carney, warned forcefully against Brexit.”
An then Ambrose Evans Pritchard in the Telegraph
“As for the Bank of England where did it acquire the idea that it is good economic science to keep raising interest rates after the cycle has rolled over and then to accelerate the pace furiously until something breaks. You do not regain lost credibility by lurching from one mistake to the opposite mistake. People will be seriously hurt by this chest thumping blunder for no good reason.”
But of course the Bank for International Settlements came out and demanded cuts in public spending wage restraints and other nonsense designed to hurt ordinary people
People without mortgages and who are rich think it a very good idea that poor people reduce their living standards to maintain theirs. It is fine to chuck people out of their homes….and when they are sick make them wait so long for treatment that they die
Michael Marmot even explained today that the UK is so poor that the height of its children has been declining compared with our our competitors. Britain is the sick man of Europe.
Slasher Osborne is responsible for all this. Austerity has worked but in the end the people will have had enough. The ballot box looms. Time to kick the bums out.
Sad days.
Tom Sole
You mention the high inflation since Brexit, but surely the way we measure inflation is based on the measure of money to goods+services over the last 12 months.
You may prefer a different measure to the annual one used by government data gatherers, but I’d be grateful if you could explain how Brexit affects the official inflation numbers just published for the year ending May 2023. The vast majority if not all of the barriers and costs erected by the UK were done more than 12 months ago so should have dropped out of the figures by now.
Could anyone explain what I’m missing
Yes, I’m aware new barriers are due in October 23, but I’m interested in costs/barriers/inflation impacts in the year previous to now.
You most kind.
Dominic Britt
The restrictions to trade remain an ongoing barrier and cost to British businesses. Supply chains relies on next day service from Europe for a vast array of industries. Businesses are now shipping bulk containers quarterly to maintain levels of stock at great expense to cope with customs delays and paperwork.
Everything costs more to sell, above and beyond external inflationary pressures.
Tom Sole
I get that there are ongoing barriers and costs. If something now costs 11 hours of labour when it could previously be done with 10, but that change to the costs happened over 12 months ago then the cost effect continues , but the effect on the declared inflation rate will have dropped out.
Michael Kelly
Hi Danny
Good stuff!
#Brexiteers and reality are strangers to one another.
Great to have you back on board the social media train and I shall look forward to your future posts.
Ian
Hi Danny,
What is your perspective on market expectations for rates to hit 7%
Mike Litoris
Are you looking for betting advice Ian?