In the past, mathematical modeling has focused on burglaries in residential, suburban communities. However, the highest burglary rates occur in urban areas where it is easier for thieves to disappear and sell their goods after committing the crime. Many suburban burglary models have a focus on repeat victimization. This trend shows that homes that have been burglarized before or that are surrounding homes with similar architecture are more likely to be burglarized in the future. Researchers in a new study decided to take a different modeling approach to examine urban burglary trends. This past fall, Joan Saldaña, Maria Aguareles, Albert Avinyó, Marta Pellicer, and Jordi Ripoll published their work on a new, non-linear model that studies urban burglarization with a focus on the deterrent effect of police presence. The study looked at data from the Catalonia region in Spain.
The study also focuses on the times at which these robberies occur instead of their physical location. Researchers used the “age” of both the burglarized houses and the burglars. By “age of a house” and “age of a burglar”, they refer to the amount of time elapsed since a house was last burglarized and since a burglar last committed a robbery. Some limitations of the study include that researchers assumed a constant number of houses and burglars (no turnover) and that burglars would always repeat the act again.
They believe that their model is both simpler and more flexible than previous burglary models used for suburban areas, and hope that these traits allow for further study of results and model adjustment when needed. Ultimately, they hope that their model can be useful in helping police departments optimize their resources, as police presence was shown to be a burglar deterrent in their research. They have also concluded that in urban areas houses with a higher age are more likely to be robbed; however, this conclusion does not hold in the long run. Overall, as stated by Pellicer, they hope that their work can, “…highlight the increase over the last few years in the association of mathematics with criminology to produce models that ultimately help with crime prevention.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/12/181204102532.htm
By Victoria L. Hoffner