Recent Working Papers
- “Trade Disruptions and America’s Early Industrialization,” with Joseph Davis, February 2024.
- “The Trade Reform Wave of 1985-1995,” NBER version, April 2022.
- “From Hermit Kingdom to Miracle on the Han: Policy Decisions that Transformed South Korea into an Export Powerhouse,” PIIE version, September 2021.
- “Optimal Tariffs and Trade Policy Formation: U.S. Evidence from the Smoot-Hawley Era,” with Anson Soderbery, July 2021.
Recent Publications
- “Does Trade Reform Promote Economic Growth? A Review of Recent Evidence,” World Bank Research Observer, 39 (August 2024), forthcoming. Old NBER version, June 2019.
- “Changing the Trade and Development Consensus: Evidence Building from Little, Bhagwati, Krueger, and Balassa in the 1960s,” History of Political Economy, 56 (August 2024), forthcoming.
- “The World Bank, the IMF, and the GATT/WTO: Which Institution Most Supported Trade Reform in Developing Countries?” PIIE version, December 2022. World Trade Review (October 2023) link here.
- “How Economic Ideas Led to Taiwan’s Shift to Export Promotion in 1958,” PIIE version, August 2021. The World Economy (April 2023).
- “The Trade Reform Wave of 1985-1995,” AEA Papers & Proceedings, May 2022.
- “The Economic Consequences of Sir Robert Peel: A Quantitative Assessment of the Repeal of the Corn Laws,” with Maksym Chepeliev, Economic Journal, November 2021.
- “The Rise and Fall of Import Substitution,” World Development, March 2021.
- “U.S. Trade Policy in Historical Perspective,” Annual Review of Economics, 2020.
- “Adam Smith’s Tolerable Administration of Justice and the Wealth of Nations“, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, July 2020.
- “Tariff Incidence: Evidence from U.S. Sugar Duties, 1890-1914,” National Tax Journal, September 2019.
- “The Missing Bretton Woods Debate over Flexible Exchange Rates,” in The Bretton Woods Agreements, edited by Naomi Lamoreaux and Ian Shapiro, Yale University Press, 2019.
- “The Midway and Beyond: Recent Work on Economics at Chicago,” History of Political Economy, December 2018
- “The GATT’s Starting Point: Tariff Levels circa 1947” (with Chad Bown), In Assessing the World Trade Organization: Fit for Purpose?, edited by Manfred Elsig, Bernard Hoekman, and Joost Pauwelyn. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2017.
Articles in Foreign Affairs
- “Trump’s Assault on the Global Trading System: And Why Decoupling From China Will Change Everything,” (with Chad P. Bown), Foreign Affairs 98 (September/October 2019): 125-136.
- “The False Promise of Protectionism: Why Trump’s Trade Policy Could Backfire.” Foreign Affairs 96 (May/June 2017): 45-56.
- “The Truth about Trade: What Critics Get Wrong about the Global Economy.” Foreign Affairs 95 (June/July 2016): 84-95.
Policy Memos/Op-Eds
- “Why Does Everyone Suddenly Care about Supply Chains?” (with Chad P. Bown), New York Times, October 14, 2021.
- “Trade Truths Will Outlast Trump,” Wall Street Journal, November 20, 2020
- “What Might a Trump withdrawal from the World Trade Organization Mean for U.S. Tariffs?” (with Chad Bown), November 2018