With the Final Four tipping off this weekend, the Dartmouth Sports Analytics executive board presents the case for each of the remaining teams in the NCAA Tournament. No. 2 Houston takes on No. 1 Baylor on Saturday at 5:14 p.m. ET, while No. 11 UCLA faces off against No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga at 8:34 p.m. ET. The National Championship will be on Monday, April 5 at 9 p.m. ET.
Without further ado, the case for each Final Four team to cut down the nets...
The case for No. 1 Gonzaga
Head of Research Devan Fink ’23
If we’re being honest with ourselves, how could it be anyone but the Zags at this point? Gonzaga has been, by far, the best team in college basketball all season, and they’ve continued their bulldozing of the opposition with four wire-to-wire wins in the NCAA Tournament so far. No team came closer to sniffing the Bulldogs than Oklahoma in the Round of 32. . .and they lost by 16 points.
With Gonzaga, there’s a little bit of history in the making. College basketball has not witnessed a perfect season since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers, but Gonzaga is in prime position to end the drought. By Kenpom’s efficiency metrics, which go back as far back as the 2001-02 season, Gonzaga’s +38.82 efficiency margin is the best of all-time. They are leaps-and-bounds better than all of the remaining teams, with an especially favorable matchup in UCLA coming their way in the Final Four. The 14-point spread between the Bulldogs and Bruins is the largest for any Final Four game since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
Beyond that, Baylor or Houston certainly would pose more of a challenge to perfection in a hypothetical title game, but Gonzaga is well-equipped to handle whichever team comes their way. Baylor is very efficient on offense, scoring 123.0 points per 100 possessions (ranking third in the NCAA), but they would face issues handling Gonzaga’s quick tempo and flood of points in the paint. Houston, meanwhile, is one of the slowest teams in college basketball, and though their stout defense could give Gonzaga headaches, the Bulldogs did just dismantle a USC defense that rates as slightly better than Houston’s.
Gonzaga is the most complete team in college basketball, and there should be little doubt that they are going to clinch the program’s first championship on Monday.
The case for No. 1 Baylor
Vice President Eli Pattison ’22
Since the start of the season, a Gonzaga-Baylor title game has seemed inevitable, and the Bears are well equipped to win that game. This is the best team that Baylor University has ever had. Over the course of the tournament, Baylor has regained the form that saw them start the season 18-0 in a stacked Big 12 conference before their midseason, COVID hiatus-induced slump. But the Bears are back — they have steamrolled their opposition on the way to the Final Four with their closest game being a nine-point win over Arkansas in the Elite Eight.
Baylor is the best three point shooting team in the country, yet has proven that they can win in this tournament even when their shots aren’t falling. They handled Villanova in the Sweet Sixteen despite shooting 3-for-19 from downtown. The Bears can afford these poor shooting nights because of their elite defense. Baylor guards Jared Butler, Mark Vital and Davion Mitchell were named to the Big 12 All-Defensive team, with Mitchell winning the conference Defensive Player of the Year award. These players are far from defensive specialists though — Butler averages 16.5 points per game and was a first team AP All-American selection, while Mitchell will be a first round pick in the 2021 NBA Draft and was a third team All-American. From Kemba to Jalen Brunson to Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome, elite guard play triumphs in March, and no team has better players at the guard position than the Baylor Bears. This is a deep, veteran team poised to win their first national championship.
The case for No. 2 Houston
President Matt Schnell ’22
The last time the Houston Cougars reached the Final Four was 1984, the last of three consecutive appearances during the Phi Slama Jama era. While this current Houston team does not feature any lottery picks such as Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler, they do play with high energy and toughness. The Cougars are just one of four teams ranking in the top 10 in both KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency rankings.
On offense, Houston can get after the basketball. The Cougars rank third in Division I in offensive rebounds, averaging more than 14 per game. In their Elite Eight matchup against Oregon State, the Cougars grabbed 19 offensive boards, winning the rebounding margin by 12. Houston also shoots and makes a lot of three-pointers, leading the American Athletic Conference in both threes attempted and three-point percentage. Houston’s attack is led by former McDonald’s All-American and Kansas Jayhawk Quentin Grimes, who averages 18 points per game and makes 41 percent of his threes. On the whole, the Cougars have four players who shoot better than 32 percent from three. Defensively, the Cougars’ length and quickness creates havoc to offenses. Led by AAC Defensive Player of the Year DeJon Jarreau, Houston forces 14 turnovers per game, top 50 nationally.
While many are quick to point out Houston’s easy path to the Final Four — the Cougars did not play a team seeded higher than 10th — the Cougars steamrolled through the regular season and look primed to win their first National Championship ever. Houston is one of the best teams both offensively and defensively in the country. While beating Baylor and Gonzaga (assuming they take care of business) will be challenging, Houston is certainly capable of pulling off consecutive upsets.
The case for No. 11 UCLA
Treasurer Avery Sholes ’24
The slipper fits! From First Four to Final Four, 11-seeded UCLA is this year’s most successful Cinderella, even if their household name makes them harder to register as a classic bracket-buster. However, don’t let that fool you, because this is not your father’s UCLA team. But it’s not that Mick Cronin, the former Cincinnati coach oft-panned for never thriving in March, cares. He’ll tell you that they don’t have Lew Alcindor, but they have Johnny Juzang. They don’t have Bill Walton, but they have heart and poise. Juzang, the breakout transfer from Kentucky averaging 21.6 points heading into the Final Four, leads a team that seemed all but done when they trailed Michigan State nearly the entire First Four game — and seemed to be a poor decision by the selection committee to even make it into the tournament. But, as the team has shown the world they can do, they rallied and beat the Spartans. The Bruins took that momentum to defeat a good BYU team — without ever trailing. They were then in complete control over fellow March darlings Abilene Christian in a 20-point win.
However, it was that Alabama game in the Sweet 16 that really made UCLA legit (one could say they turned the tide). Alabama was a hot Final Four pick, an offensive juggernaut with the defensive chops to go far in March, even if there was untapped potential. It took overtime (on a miraculous three by Alabama; UCLA should have won in regulation), but the Bruins scored 88 points in their win, as they took command in the extra period. One of the most notable developments of that game was Juzang scoring “just” 13 points on poor 5-for-18 shooting. His teammates had to step up on his off shooting night, and boy, did they show up. Five other Bruins notched double figure scoring nights, headlined by 17 points apiece from guards Jules Bernard and Jaime Jaquez, Jr. (they like their J’s over in LA, apparently). In the Elite Eight, the Bruins had to play flawlessly; they could not expect a 44 percent free throw shooting night from the Wolverines like they got from the Tide. And they played to nearly that level. Their scoring droughts raise some issues, but Michigan had the third-best two point defense, and UCLA still won.
Gonzaga, however, will not only be their toughest opponent in the tourney, but of the entire season. You can bet Cronin will have a gameplan, and their 4 guard lineup with just 6’9” forward Cody Riley might be the most switchable, athletic team Gonzaga has faced in a while. It is a tall task, but they will at least make it an enjoyable game. UCLA, long college basketball’s Goliath, is finally the prospective David to a Gonzaga team that may just be the Goliath to end all Goliaths. Anything can happen in March (April!).