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Category: Research

Published on

By Sabin Hart '24, Grace McGinley '26, Dean Lowery '27, Tyler Goldstein '27, and Cam Cowperthwaite '27

Introduction

Across all sports, one of the most prevalent problems is figuring out which prospects will pan out and which will crash and burn. Millions of dollars are being poured into predictive analytics for everything from next-day parlays in sports betting to ranking draft prospects years in advance. Knowing this, we wanted to explore what causes a player in the National Basketball Association (NBA) to take the leap from a role player to all-star. Can the statistics tell us if the 41st overall pick will be the future Most Valuable Player? This paper looks at recent all-stars to determine if they showed early hints before they made the leap to stardom.

...continue reading "What Makes a Breakout? Analyzing the Most Promising Young Stars in the National Basketball Association"

Published on

By Ari Nathanson '26

Introduction

In 1989, Jimmy Johnson took over as coach of the Dallas Cowboys. He inherited a depleted roster on the heels of a 3-13 campaign, its third consecutive losing season after a still-NFL-record 20 consecutive winning seasons. Johnson had a clear strategy for improvement: amass as much draft capital as possible. However, in order to capitalize on his bounty of picks, he needed to know how to properly value them. At Johnson’s request, vice president Mike McCoy put together the NFL’s first draft pick trade value chart. It assigned the first overall pick an arbitrary value of 3,000 and a decreasing value to each successive pick. Using the chart, the Cowboys completed a whirlwind of trades in an attempt to exploit perceived market inefficiencies, drafting 42 players from 1991 to 1993. McCoy created the chart based on past trade behavior and his own gut instinct—not using advanced analytics. Nevertheless, it led the Cowboys to resounding success. Headlined by homegrown talent including Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, and Emmitt Smith, Dallas won three Super Bowls in the early 1990s. Soon after, the chart became a fixture of draft rooms around the league. Whereas previously teams had traded picks arbitrarily (as acknowledged by former Cowboys executive Gil Brandt), they now treated pick-trading as a more exact science. Yet Johnson’s chart was not without its critics. In 2005, business professors Cade Massey of the University of Pennsylvania Wharton and Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago Booth published “The Loser’s Curse.” They presented a compelling argument that NFL teams—even after the spread of Johnson’s chart—significantly overestimated the value of picking high in the draft. They also criticized the going discount rate (the cost of exchanging a future pick for a present pick) as exorbitantly high. In the years since, a plethora of alternative charts have been developed, claiming to more accurately reflect picks’ true value. Yet according to Bill Belichick, “everybody probably [still] uses about the same value chart.” How exactly did the proliferation of the Jimmy Johnson trade chart affect the draft pick trade market? Did criticism of the Johnson chart, exemplified by the seminal 2005 Massey-Thaler study, change NFL teams’ thinking? What other events, if any, had an impact? In this paper, I will investigate all of these questions through an in-depth analysis of the draft pick trade market over the past 40 years.

...continue reading "Exploring the Evolution of the NFL Draft Pick Trade Market Over Time"

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Published on 1 Comment on Which factors can indicate and give foresight to major first-round upsets in the Men’s NCAA Tournament?

By Dean Lowery '27

Introduction

The Men’s NCAA Tournament has a reputation for being unpredictable. Every year, millions of Americans attempt to fill out a perfect bracket in hopes of correctly predicting all 63 games that are contained in ‘March Madness’. However, some of this madness stands out above the rest: the ‘bracket buster’: the upset that comes as a surprise to seemingly every expert, breaking the hearts of millions of Americans and their dreams of a perfect bracket.

...continue reading "Which factors can indicate and give foresight to major first-round upsets in the Men’s NCAA Tournament?"

Published on

By Atul Venkatesh '27

Evaluating player performance is one of the most critical concepts in pro football. One method to do so is Approximate Value (AV), where players are given a seasonal score based on accolades and statistics that accumulate throughout their careers. While AV reflects a player's performance historically, it lacks insight into their current worth. To address this issue, I have modified AV to create the Present AV (PAV) statistic, which shows the current value of over 1800 players through the 2022 NFL season. I have also created a draft value chart which gives the expected PAV of every draft pick. With both of these metrics, it is now possible to evaluate past trades, determine the appropriate draft compensation for a player, and use a statistics-based method to determine the most valuable players in the league.

...continue reading "PAVing the Way for the Future – A Model That Determines Player Value and Evaluates Trades in the NFL"

Published on

By Ethan Greenberg '26

Introduction

At the uppermost levels of international beach volleyball, players must navigate a complex system of tiered tournaments hosted around the world to achieve ranking points and make a living. Players in the highest echelon compete in the Beach Pro Tour’s Elite 16 tournaments, competitions reserved for the sixteen highest-ranked teams in the world (at the time of registration). Just below Elite 16s are Beach Pro Tour Challenge events. While these 24-team contests offer fewer ranking points and less money than the Elite 16s, they’re critical proving grounds for any teams trying to break into top tier tournaments.

...continue reading "Beach Volleyball’s Strategic Gamble: Analyzing the Efficacy of Pool Play Forfeits at Pro Tour Challenge Events"

Published on

By Ahaan Jindal '27

Introduction

The implementation of a range of regulatory changes by the FIA (Fédération Internationale de
l’Automobile) in 2022 endeavored to usher in a new era of competitive Formula 1 racing with cars stacked much closer to each other and more teams jostling for podiums and pole-positions than ever before. Whether or not that promise has materialized is yet up for debate, thanks in large part to Max Verstappen’s unprecedented and record-breaking 2023 World Championship-winning season.

...continue reading "“Lights Out and Away We Go!”: How Race Factors and Track Conditions Impact First Lap Incidents in Formula 1"

Published on

By Quentin Proud '26 and Grayson Segars '26

Introduction

On December 4th, 2017, Jimbo Fisher shocked the college football world by leaving Florida State to sign a 10-year, $75 million fully guaranteed contract to become the next head coach at Texas A&M. Fisher, just a few years removed from back-to-back college football playoff appearances and a national championship, was viewed by the Texas A&M’s administration as the man who would finally help the school’s football program make the jump from “great, but not elite, program” to “perennial championship contender”. In Fisher’s introductory press conference, Texas A&M Athletic Director Scott Woodward would claim that Fisher “is the right coach at the right time...” and that he was “confident that the opportunity for greatness is right around the corner.” Fisher echoed this optimistic tone, saying he would “try to take Texas A&M where it should be at the top of the college football world.”

...continue reading "Predicting the Success of Football Coaches"

Published on

By Michael Bond '25

Introduction

When the game is on the line, few players face as much pressure and public scrutiny as kickers. Some of the most memorable games have ended with similarly legendary field goal attempts, from Justin Tucker’s record-breaking 66-yard make to Cody Parkey’s “Double Doink” miss. Certain players may handle the pressure better than others, and the clutch factor could be an important consideration when front offices look for their next kicker. This paper aims to evaluate kicker performance at the end of close games in order to determine whether performance significantly changes in clutch time and discover which players have historically stepped up their game when it matters most.

...continue reading "Are Kickers Clutch? An Analysis of NFL Kicker Performance at the End of Close Games"

Published on

By Michael Bond '25

Introduction

Shohei Ohtani took the MLB by storm in 2021, winning the American League MVP in his first season free from injury and rehab limitations since his impressive rookie debut three years prior. Before he was dominating the American game, Ohtani put together a decorated career in his home country of Japan. His time in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) gave him an opportunity to polish his pitching and batting skills before making the jump to harder competition.[1] His success, and that of other baseball legends such as Ichiro Suzuki, highlight the merit of the NPB within the international baseball community. This paper aims to compare the NPB with the MLB, and discuss how league structure and rules affect trends of team success.

...continue reading "The MLB and Japan’s NPB: A Quantitative Comparison"

Published on

By Fintan Letzelter '26 

Introduction

It is week 12 of the 2022 NFL season, and the Baltimore Ravens lead the Jacksonville Jaguars 27–20 with 20 seconds left in the game. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has just led the Jaguars on a methodical 2-minute drill down the field, and now faces first-and-goal at the Ravens’ 10-yard line. Lawrence drops back and throws to Marvin Jones in the end zone, who brings it in for a touchdown. Head coach Doug Pederson now faces a choice: go for a 2-point conversion to try to win in regulation or kick an extra point and go to overtime. Choosing to go for two puts the result of the game into the hands of the offense that just marched down the field.

...continue reading "To Tie or Not to Tie: Should NFL Teams Go for Two at the End of Their Games?"