When March rolls around every year, the hype begins for college basketball’s national championship. Sixty-four teams, seeded into four regions of sixteen, compete to win six straight and take home the title. From bracket-making to skipping class on game days, there’s a lot to enjoy about March Madness. But when it comes to what makes the tournament shine, the upsets take the cake. Watching a 10- or 11-seed to claw past a favorite and searching for an elusive 12-5 upset appeals to the underdog in all of this. With 2021’s tournament over and Gonzaga’s undefeated streak coming to an end right at the finish line to the hands of Baylor, a few members of the Sports Analytics Club have decided to take a look at some of this tournament’s best upsets to see if there are any common threads.
No. 15 Oral Roberts def. No. 2 Ohio State, 75-72
Sabin Hart '24
When you heard us say upsets, you knew we had to start here. A fifteen seed defeating the No. 2 has only happened eight times in NCAA history, with the top seed sitting at a lofty 94% win percentage. Most bracket-makers tended to agree — ESPN’s Metrics had 95% of all brackets with Oral Roberts losing their first and only game. So then what happened?
OSU came into the tourney on a rocky end to the regular season. Though they ended at 21-9, their last eight games were a poor 3-5, including a demoralizing loss to Illinois in OT in the Big 10 conference championship. This translated to underperforming in two key areas: turnovers and 3-point shooting. The Buckeyes lost the ball a whopping 16 times, 10 more than the Eagles. As for threes, Ohio State’s 5-for-23 (21.7%) was dismal, and one of their worst performances. Specifically while contested, Ohio State went 1 for 10, compared to 7 for 16 from Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor, who, combined, went home with 59 of the Eagles’ points. OSU didn’t get dominated in every aspect of the game though, out rebounding Oral Roberts 49-32. Ultimately, Ohio State had two chances to win in regulation but couldn’t get either shot to drop.
No. 15 Oral Roberts def. No. 7 Florida, 81-78
Secretary Will Steadman '22
Florida played (and was upset by) the same team, but by very different means. Florida actually outperformed Oral Roberts in most offensive metrics. They took more shots (58-57), made more shots (32-26) and outdid Oral Roberts in offensive rebounds (11-7). Just because Florida could make their shots doesn’t mean that they didn’t beat themselves, though. Florida dropped a ridiculous 20 turnovers compared to Oral Roberts’ 12 and committed 19 fouls to ORU’s 11. These fouls led to one of the determining factors in this game: the free throw shooting disparity. While Florida sank seven of nine free throws, for a respectable 78% shooting rate, Oral Roberts made 19 of 23, shooting over 80% at the line. While that 80% free throw percentage is good for college basketball, the real issue lies in the fact that ORU was ever allowed to take 23 free throws.
In the end, Oral Roberts beat Florida by focusing on their strengths. Florida was always going to outshoot them, but there was no guarantee that they had to outsmart them. ORU countered Florida’s relentless offensive attack with smart ball handling and by refusing to give up too many fouls. Their 12 steals nearly doubled Florida’s 7. The game of basketball is played under two nets, but Oral Roberts proved that playing in the center of the court is just as important.
No. 8 Loyola-Chicago def. No. 1 Illinois, 71-58
Andy Feng '24
This wasn’t the first upset for the Loyola Ramblers, who had previously been dubbed the “Cinderella team” of the 2018 tournament when they miraculously reached the Final Four as the 11-seed. This year, the 8-seed Ramblers got off to a fast start against the top-seed Illinois Fighting Illini, leading early and never looking back. The key component to Loyola’s dominant upset was their defense – they held Illinois to just 58 points, which was over 23 points below their season average, and forced Illinois to turn the ball over a whopping 17 times compared to their 11. Largely due to Loyola’s tough defense, Illinois’ star player Ayo Dosunmu committed six costly turnovers and was held to just nine points on 4-of-10 shooting, well below his season average of over 20 points. Outside of their defense, Loyola also outperformed Illinois in nearly all box score statistics, including a higher field goal percentage (51% to 45%), higher three point percentage (40% to 29%), more rebounds (+3), more assists (+2), more steals (+7), and more blocks (+2).
No. 12 Oregon State def. No. 4 Oklahoma State, 80-70
Kai Sane '21
The Oklahoma State Cowboys came into the 2021 NCAA Tournament as the No. 4 seed in the Midwest Region, but their potential to make a deep run was undeniable with star guard Cade Cunningham at the helm. In fact, 9.4% of brackets had Oklahoma State in the Final Four, with some experts, including Stephen A. Smith, picking them to win the Midwest Region. Despite Cunningham’s status as the presumptive No. 1 pick in the upcoming 2021 NBA Draft, the Cowboys were bounced from the NCAA Tournament this year by the 12th seeded Oregon State Beavers, who surprisingly ran through the Pac-12 tournament to earn a bid into this year’s tournament.
While Oklahoma State’s 70 points weren’t a far cry from their average of 76.6 PPG on the season, their field goal percentage was abysmal, shooting just 27.7% from the field, significantly below their season average of 45.8%; it was a similar story for the Cowboys’ dynamic guard Cade Cunningham, who shot 30% from the field, well below his season average of 43.8%. The Cowboys’ struggles continued from the free throw line as well; although Oklahoma State attempted three more free throws than Oregon State, the Cowboys shot 68.4% from the line compared to the Beavers’ 91.4%, which was a critical factor in this game. Along with the shooting percentages, both from the field and at the line, rebounding was a key element in this upset. Oklahoma State did manage to narrowly win the battle on the offensive glass (12-10), the Beavers dominated the defensive glass, with 42 defensive rebounds compared to the 20 for the Cowboys. Oregon State ultimately won the overall rebounding battle by a margin of 20. In addition, beyond the two key differentiating factors in this game, which were the shooting percentages and rebounding numbers, it is worth mentioning that Oregon State had 11 blocks to Oklahoma State’s 2. In the end, although this wasn’t a comprehensive victory for the Beavers, as Oklahoma State had more assists (+3), more steals (+9), and fewer turnovers (-12), Oregon State was more efficient with their opportunities and won the battle in the trenches on the way to advancing to the Sweet 16.
The Takeaway
So after all this, what do the sports guys have to tell you about upsets? There isn’t an easy answer, unfortunately. The victory margins ranged from a 23-point blowout to a last-second buzzer beating shot. Underdogs overperformed and favorites fell below their season averages. In some games, the offense just had the hot hand for the night and lit up the hoop, with shots contested and open alike. On others, the defense stifled and suffocated their opponents' schemes through both halves and left an average offense to be good enough. Our advice to the coaches of the top seeds: plan for everything — there’s no way to know how you might lose a game you’re supposed to win. In every game, there’s an element of surprise and when it comes down to it, that’s what March Madness is all about.