With the NBA playoffs only a month away, the seeding situation in both conferences is beginning to heat up. That said, some teams have asserted themselves as true contenders while others have already played themselves out of the playoff race. The expanded play-in tournament for seeds 7-10, however, has allowed for more teams to stay right in the thick of the playoff hunt, creating a host of new storylines to follow as the regular season winds down. Many of last year’s contenders — Denver, Milwaukee, and both Los Angeles teams, to name a few — are right back in the hunt, while the rise of the Nets and Sixers in the East and the Jazz and Suns in the West has shaken up the narrative. In a season where many teams have risen far above and some fallen wildly short of expectations, a few members of the Dartmouth Sports Analytics Club wanted to highlight this season’s top overperformers and underperformers. 

Turning Heads

Phoenix Suns

Danny Locascio '24

In the 2019-2020 season, the Phoenix Suns finished with a record of 34-39, 10th place in the West and without a playoff berth. Their offensive rating was 112.41 and their defensive rating was 111.94, placing them at 12th and 17th in the NBA, respectively. This year, however, the Suns are sitting at second place in the West (37-15), just 2.5 games behind the Utah Jazz. Unsurprisingly, their net ranking follows the Jazz for 2nd in the NBA, the result of a 7th-ranked offensive rating (116.78) and 5th-ranked defensive rating (110.07). 

The difference? Chris Paul. Since their blockbuster trade for Paul in November, the Suns have dramatically improved, turning themselves into a serious contender. Paul is one of the best point guards in the NBA. He has an ability to space the floor and create open shots for his teammates, helping dramatically improve the Suns’ ability to diversify their shots. Last season, Kelly Oubre and Deandre Ayton’s presence in the middle resulted in 35% of the Suns’ field goal attempts to come at the rim. This season, that number has fallen below 29%, third lowest in the NBA. Usually this is a recipe for disaster offensively, but Chris Paul and Devin Booker’s efficiency from mid-range and three have resulted in overwhelming offensive success. 

This is not the first time Chris Paul has had a serious impact on his team’s ability to win. He is a tremendous leader, a floor general, and has a very high intellect for the game of basketball. After spending the first 12 seasons of his career with the New Orleans (formerly) Hornets and Los Angeles Clippers, Paul has been on the trade block much more often, bouncing from the Rockets, to the Thunder, and now the Suns. Paul is 35 years old, but age doesn’t seem to be getting in the way of success. Unless he retires following the season, it is hard to imagine the Suns will let him go with the amount of success they have had so far with him leading their young squad.

Utah Jazz

Carter Sullivan '24

The Utah Jazz concluded the 2019-2020 regular season with a winning percentage of 61%, good for 6th in the Western conference. More than halfway through the 2021 season, the Jazz not only have a winning percentage of 74.5%, but also hold the best record in the league. They have made this leap in performance without any major coaching changes, organizational shakeups, or signings of aging superstars. How, then, have the Jazz become so good this year? 

Several Jazz players have shown steady improvement from last season to this season, especially in terms of 3-point shooting. Jordan Clarkson, for instance, has brought his 3-point-percentage from 36.6% up to 42.2%, and is a frontrunner for 6th man of the year. Mike Conley has gone from averaging 14.4 points per game to 16.5 points per game, with his 3-point percentage jumping from 37.5% to 41.6%. These improvements have been complemented by the steady offensive excellence of Donovan Mitchell, who averages 26.5 points per game on 38.5% 3-point shooting, and by the lights-out shooting of Joe Ingles and Georges Niang, who have 3-point-percentages of 48.7% and 41.0%, respectively. 

The deadeye shooting in Utah is complemented by the defensive prowess of 7-foot-1 center Rudy Gobert, who is averaging an absurd 13.4 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game this year. Not only is Gobert putting up these ridiculous numbers, but his presence alone is enough to deter other teams from driving to the hoop, meaning that his impact goes beyond the box score. Gobert is not the only impactful big man in Utah, as center Derrick Favors has also been contributing 5.5 rebounds and 1 block per game this year. Favors, who was signed by the Jazz in free agency, represents the only significant move made by the Jazz last offseason, and as shown by his numbers above, he is contributing in a modest but effective fashion.

The Jazz’s improvement this season has not been due to any blockbuster trades, top-tier free agent signings, or other organizational shakeups. Rather, the team’s success can be credited to the steady improvement of players like Jordan Clarkson and Mike Conley, along with the continued excellence of Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell and others. 

Falling Short

Toronto Raptors

Rahul Kolluri '22

Two years removed from one of the more storied title runs in recent memory, Toronto’s awful run this season (21-33) has left them fighting desperately for control of the No. 10 seed and a play-in berth. The Raptors’ playoff hopes are fading by the minute, racking up a dreadful 4-16 record since the start of March and dropping crucial games to the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks. Nick Nurse’s team is on pace to win just 28 games in the shortened season, a stark decline from last year’s 53-win finish. While the Raptors have improved their offensive output by a slim margin – 112.5 against last year’s 111.1 total, their 2nd-ranked defense (105.0) has dropped to 13th in the league (112.1). Toronto currently stands at the bottom of the league in rebounds (a 9.2% decline from last year) and 26th in 3-pointers allowed (up 6% on the year).  

It doesn’t take rocket science to figure out exactly what’s felled Toronto, a team whose drop in win percentage is only exceeded by the Harden-less Houston Rockets. COVID has ravaged a roster that, barring the loss of Serge Ibaka, was not fundamentally different from the 2020 squad. Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby, who (save for now 35 year-old Kyle Lowry) form the team’s core, have all missed time from positive tests. While offseason addition De’Andre Bembry has found a decent role for himself as a do-it-all backup point guard, Aron Baynes has been such an unmitigated disaster that the Raptors have picked up journeyman center Khem Birch to stop the bleeding.

In a season where injuries and COVID have badly hit what may have been a decent playoff team, Siakam’s lack of improvement has been the most surprising development. Siakam has seen his PPG fall from 22.9 to 20.6, defensive rebounds from 6.3 to 5.4, and, most glaringly, 3-point percentage from 35.9% to 28.6%. Fans can point to the impact of COVID on his playing ability and the collapse of the team around him, but Siakam’s drop from last year’s All-NBA campaign has been a death blow for the Raptors. In a season that increasingly looks headed towards a lottery pick, however, Gary Trent Jr.’s absurd 41-point outburst (on 17 of 19 from the field) is certainly a bright spot. The former Portland guard’s career-high 18.4 PPG on 46.7%/41.1%/85.7% splits is a real surprise and potential building block for a team that has massively fallen short of expectations. 

Boston Celtics       

Zachary Nelson-Marois '24  

This year in particular, the Boston Celtics are an example of a team who looks solid on paper yet has significantly underperformed. With perennial All-Stars such as Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kemba Walker, they would seem to be more than capable of competing for a championship; however, they currently boast a record just over .500 at 29-26 (fifth in ECF) and are only one game ahead of the eighth seed. After making it to the Eastern Conference Finals for three of the last four years and finishing with close to 50 wins in each of those years, it seems as though the team’s youth movement has gotten the best of them. In recent years, big free agents and players have come and gone, such as Al Horford, Gordon Hayward, and most notably Kyrie Irving, all for nothing in return. The roster in the past has always been young, but this year, many of the bench players are either rookies or players with little NBA experience. This makes it difficult to compete with the NBA’s best teams, and it explains the inconsistency with which the team plays.

In addition, the roster as constructed has many flaws. A major reason for their inconsistency is their lack of a superstar point guard; though Kemba Walker has been recognized as an All-Star for four years and has played at this level in the past, it is apparent that his effectiveness is diminishing. Much of this is due to the fact that he stands at only 6 feet tall; players of this height rely on skills and athleticism, yet for Walker, as time and injuries catch up to him, it seems as though his efficiency will continue to decrease. Though Walker is certainly a respectable player and is one of the top point guards in the league, the Celtics would be much better off with a younger two-way point guard capable of playing with the young roster for years to come. 

Additionally, it would help to have a defensive-minded center with offensive capabilities; though Rob Williams is a prototype of what the Celtics may be looking for, it will take time for him to develop into a starting-caliber center, and his offensive game is already limited to primarily open dunks and lay-ups. In addition, Tatum and Brown, although definitely considered All-Star players, are very young; it takes time for players to reach the caliber of Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Lebron James, and few players ever reach this pedigree. 

Although the Celitcs have a respectable offensive rating that ranks 11th in the league (113.4), their defensive rating ranks 14th (111.5). The Celtics defense has been a staple of the team for the last few years in order for them to compete with teams with more offensive firepower. The Celtics have allowed nearly as many points as they score; that makes it difficult to win games. 

Though the Celtics still have time to make a run towards the end of the regular season, there seem to be glaring issues which need to be addressed before they will be able to get far in the playoffs. At first glance, the team’s underperformance is surprising, but due to the team’s youth movement, the team has a ton of room for improvement.