The 2021 NFL Draft featured five quarterbacks that were selected in the first round, three of whom were the top three picks. This number is unusually large compared to past drafts, and the expectation for many of these quarterbacks is to turn their franchises around within a few years. Each of these players were widely successful in their college careers: three of them appeared in the College Football Playoff, two of them were FBS champions, one was an FCS champion, and all of them spent a portion of their careers with teams ranked in the Top 25 of their respective divisions. With so much hype surrounding these players, the Dartmouth Sports Analytics Club predicts how well each player will fit into the system of their new franchises.
No. 1 Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Isabel Pantle '23
Trevor Lawrence going first in the NFL Draft was a foregone conclusion. The Jacksonville Jaguars had the first pick after posting a dismal 1-15 record. It’s no secret that the Jags desperately need a good quarterback; they’ve had seven starting quarterbacks in the last 3 years, with 3 different QBs playing in the 2020 season alone. In the last 13 years, only in 2017 has the team had a record above .500. It was a no-brainer for them to use their first pick to snag a QB like Lawrence. But will he be enough to turn around the Jags’ unfortunate past few years?
Jacksonville had the highest pass to run ratio last year, throwing the ball more than 66% of the time. A team that throws the ball this much would obviously benefit from some talent at the QB position. In terms of wide receivers, veteran Marvin Jones and potential rising star DJ Chark share most of the targets. However, as teams quickly became aware of Chark, defenses learned to double team him, leaving not many solid targets for whomever Jacksonville’s QB was that week. The team would be wise to add a young WR to the team to learn under the tutelage of Jones and Chark, and provide an extra target for Lawrence.
The Jags also traded up to get Travis Etienne, a running back who played with Lawrence for three years at Clemson. Besides leading the team in rushing yards for the 2020 season, Etienne also had the third most receiving yards of anyone on the team, often receiving targets when Lawrence was under pressure and needed to dump the ball off to avoid the sack. This potentially was not a huge need for the team, since rookie James Robinson had a solid year with the fifth-most rushing yards in the league. But, adding a familiar face and someone Lawrence has chemistry with in Etienne isn’t a bad idea.
They also have some offensive linemen hitting free agency, and their veteran left tackle Cam Robinson is playing on the franchise tag. With his future uncertain, the Jaguars spent a second round pick on Walter Little, an offensive tackle from Stanford, who has potential but opted out from the last season due to a torn ACL in 2019.
The Jaguars are poised to improve from last season (it’d be hard not to, after going 1-15) and now have the pieces to solve the puzzle of a good season. If their offensive line stays healthy to protect Lawrence, they have the potential for an impressive season, and a lot of talent that, with the right development, could break the team’s slump.
No. 2 Zach Wilson, New York Jets
Danny Locascio '24
Heading into the 2020 College Football season, the consensus surrounding the draft was that Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields would be the first two quarterbacks drafted. Quite frankly, Zach Wilson was not on the radar of many NFL scouts at the time. However, the quarterback from BYU improved his draft stock exponentially with a remarkable campaign in 2020, throwing for 3,692 yards and 33 touchdowns. More impressively, Wilson only threw 3 interceptions and broke Steve Young’s completion percentage record with a connection coming on 73.5% of his passes. By trading former starting quarterback Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers on April 5, the New York Jets made it clear their intention was to select a quarterback with the second overall pick in the draft. Zach Wilson was their guy.
Sam Darnold is evidence that throwing a rookie quarterback into an offense full of shortcomings does not always work out. However, the situation in New York for Zach Wilson is going to be vastly different. New York signed former Titans wide receiver Corey Davis this offseason, and they also used their additional first round pick on an offensive lineman — Alijah Vera-Tucker from USC — to protect Wilson in the pocket. What’s more important is that Wilson’s skillset is more compatible with the Jets’ offensive scheme. Wilson has a fantastic ability to get out on the edge to stretch plays, possesses the ability to be used in the run game, and has an accurate arm. These qualities led Zach Wilson’s QB coach, John Beck, to declare the Jets the “perfect fit” for Wilson prior to the draft. The Jets seemed to agree. It is time for a new QB era in New York, and hopefully Wilson can bring success to a franchise that has been struggling for the better part of the last decade.
No. 3 Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
Danny Locascio '24, Isabel Pantle '23, Carter Sullivan '24
Over the past few years, the NFL has seemed to drift toward favoring dual-threat quarterbacks. Between Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and others, teams that have invested in these hybrid players to lead their teams have experienced a large amount of success. Trey Lance fits that mold. In 2019, he led FCS powerhouse North Dakota State to a 16-0 record, capping it off with an FCS championship. During this campaign, Lance threw for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns with no interceptions. He also rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns. Such a dominant season led teams across the league to take notice of his potential. COVID ended Lance’s final season after one game, and despite the team continuing their season in the spring, Lance sat out to prepare for the draft. The 49ers did not seem to mind Lance’s 15-and-a-half month hiatus from competitive football, and despite having an established quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo on the depth chart, they drafted Trey Lance with the 3rd overall pick.
Lance likely won’t be starting Week 1, since head coach Kyle Shanahan runs a complicated offense that will take the rookie time to learn. The excitement behind Lance as a pick for the 49ers is his raw talent, which, paired with Shanahan’s history of developing quarterbacks, could make him an invaluable asset to the team over the next decade. Though he didn’t run the 40 at the NFL Combine this year, GPS game time data has him among some of the fastest quarterbacks. Despite his inexperience, Lance is well on his way towards a high football IQ, which will only improve under Coach Shanahan. Shanahan has experience developing quarterbacks, like Robert Griffin III in 2012, who was lighting up the league before his season ending injury.
Last season, the 49ers’ offensive line had trouble blocking incoming pass rushers. Such a porous o-line, when combined with a QB of Lance’s inexperience level (he attempted only 318 passes in college), would be a recipe for disaster. Fortunately, the 49ers’ front office gave their offensive line an overhaul this offseason; they signed, resigned, and drafted players to put together a top-notch group that could protect Lance. First, the team re-signed stellar tackle Trent Williams, who has consistently performed at a high level. Next, they signed Alex Mack, a veteran center preparing to enter his 12th season in the league. This signing was fantastic, as Mack has promise to both lead in the locker room and on-the-field (not to mention he will be key in giving Lance the protection necessary to get passes off). Lastly, in the fifth round of this year’s draft, the 49ers drafted Western Michigan tackle Jaylen Moore. Moore, a standout player in college, who also has the physical attributes and experience to play guard. These two factors – a QB focused coach and a developing O-line – could lead Lance to be the next franchise quarterback of the 49ers.
No. 11 Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Carter Sullivan '24
With the 11th pick in this year’s NFL draft, the Chicago Bears selected Ohio State’s Justin Fields, an intriguing prospect with massive upside. Bears fans should be excited not only about the pick, but also about Fields’ impending development, as he’ll be working with one of the best offensive coordinators any quarterback could want in Bill Lazor. Lazor, a former quarterback coach, has a reputation for getting the most out of his QBs. In 2013, he helped Nick Foles reach his first (and only) Pro Bowl with a passer rating of 119.2 (best in the league!), and in 2014, guided Ryan Tannehill to a 4,000-yard, 27-touchdown season. Lazor will push Justin Fields to perform at the highest level.
If the Bears want to find offensive success next season, Fields alone will not be enough. His surrounding pieces, especially at wide receiver and tight end, must be able to get open and make plays on a consistent basis. Fields will still be getting used to the pace of the league, and given that pocket awareness is already one of his weaknesses, he will need receivers who can shed defenders and haul in passes regularly. Aside from top wideout Allen Robinson, whose 2020 season included 1,250 yards on 102 receptions, the Bears’ receiving corps is not great, presenting a potential issue for Fields. Adding insult to injury, the Bears recently lost offensive tackle Charles Leno, who Pro Football Focus ranks as the 28th-best tackle in the league. Leno’s departure leaves a massive hole in the Bears’ offensive line, and in order for Fields to be a successful pocket passer in Chicago, the organization must fill that slot effectively.
Overall, the Bears made a good choice in selecting Justin Fields. He’s a natural-born playmaker with a high ceiling, and if surrounded by the right pieces, could develop into a franchise player. The biggest question for the Bears now is not about Fields, but rather the players around him. If the Bears can’t surround him with sufficient talent to succeed, Fields will surely stumble through the season, disappointing fans all over Chicago. So, which will it be? It’s up to the Bears front office to decide.
No. 15 Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Rahul Kolluri '22
It’s been 13 years since Bill Belichick last picked in the first-round’s top half, taking Patriots great Jerod Mayo at 10th overall. At the 15th pick, the league’s greatest coach has shown an enormous deal of faith that he has found Tom Brady’s successor in Alabama’s Mac Jones. After bursting onto the scene in 2019 in relief of an injured Tua Tagovailoa, the 22-year old signal-caller followed it up with an outstanding 2020 campaign which saw Alabama take home its 18th national championship. Like his predecessor, the stats (4,500 yds, 41 TDs, 4 INTs, 77.4% completion rate) are eye-popping, as is his stellar record in college football’s most pro-ready conference. Jones’ decision making, polished mechanics, accuracy, and pedigree have made him a draft darling for most pundits. While the media hype vaulted him into the conversation for as early as San Francisco at No. 3, Jones’ profile as a laser-sharp old-school pocket passer may have come back to bite him come draft time. In a loaded quarterback class, Jones was notably limited with his legs compared to the rest of the top QBs (Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance), while also not quite boasting the arm talent of the other four. His response to pressure has been a source of trepidation, though the limited number of games played could be to blame. Sample size might not be a huge issue given the strength of his opposition, but there may have been concern that Jones was carried by an offense rife with talent – including two wideouts who ended up drafted ahead of him. Teams looking at Tua’s rocky first season in the league as a bad omen may have opted to pass on Jones for the same reasons.
While Jones’ real flaws likely took him out of play as a potential top-5 choice, he still offers New England value as a potential NFL-caliber starter right off the bat and as real competition for an aging Cam Newton. New England presents as natural a fit between team and player as any in the draft. From the winning ethos to the pocket passing to the severe limits in mobility, there are abundant comparisons between Jones and Tom Brady, though Jones’ flashes of true big-play ability could separate him from the typical game manager label. Starting behind Newton will be a phenomenal opportunity to learn the ropes of a Josh McDaniels offense. Should Newton replicate last season’s dreadful output, having a pro-ready option in Jones off the bench could be excellent insurance against letting Bill Belichick’s offseason moves go to waste. Granted, this is not the high-flying New England offense of years’ past. Though the Patriots’ boast a line filled with gritty mainstays (David Andrews, Shaq Mason) and Pro Bowl talent (Trent Brown, Mike Onwneu), Dante Scarnecchia is no longer there to work magic if injury-prone tackle Isaiah Wynn doesn’t deliver. Free agent pickup Nelson Agholor’s true value likely falls between his respectable 2020 stint in Vegas (18.7 Y/R, 896 yds, 8 TDs) and the dreadful run of drops which marred his time as an Eagle (24 total). He’s certainly earned his place in the league as a starting NFL receiver, if not the number one option Jones needs were he to start this year.