By Levi Port '24
Introduction
In today’s NBA, youth and potential are often the most coveted qualities of a player during the draft. With the birth of sports analytics and modern advancements, organizations favor raw talent that can be harnessed and developed over maturity and collegiate success. Even more, a plethora of current NBA all-stars drafted at a young age have proven this methodology correct. Players like Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, selected with insignificant amateur records and oozing potential, exemplify the NBA’s contemporary strategy for team-building. Losing franchises are incentivized to acquire the stars of the future, not to win now. In 2016, two senior college players were selected in the top seven picks of the NBA draft (Kris Dunn and Buddy Hield), a feat that had not been matched since 2006, which was the first year under the current eligibility rules established by the NBA’s 2005 collective bargaining agreement. These rules state that all drafted players must be at least 19 years old the year they are drafted or at least one year removed from the graduation of his high school class, thus popularizing the “one-and-done” method where elite recruits enter the draft immediately following their freshman year. Despite every Wooden Award winner, given to the most outstanding male and female collegiate basketball player, since 2012 being at least a sophomore (with the exemption of Zion Williamson in 2018), every NBA first overall pick, in the same time span, has been a college freshman. In the eyes of analytical-inclined NBA executives, potential outweighs production, and historic college players, i.e. Luka Garza, face the consequences.
Hypothesis
Analyzing career performance by draft age will show that youth does not significantly improve the odds of acquiring a quality NBA basketball player and, as such, should be less prioritized during the draft.
Statistical Methodology
To start, data was used from four different draft classes: 2017 (green), 2016 (blue), 2011 (red), 2007 (purple). The 2007 NBA draft was the year after the new eligibility rules. Every player, across all four drafts, was placed into seven groups depending on the age they were drafted: 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 years old. To measure career success, three advanced statistical categories were compared: win shares (WS), win shares per 48 minutes (WS/48), and value over replacement player (VORP). WS is a player statistic which attempts to divvy up credit for team success to the individuals on the team. WS/48 is an estimate of the number of wins contributed by the player per 48 minutes (league average is about 0.100). VORP is a measure to estimate each player’s overall contribution to the team, measured vs. what a theoretical “replacement player” would provide, where the “replacement player” is defined as a player on minimum salary or not a normal member of a team’s rotation (-2.0 is replacement level in the NBA).
Results
The variation in all three statistical categories between the ages players were drafted was not significant. Career outcomes, measured by WS, WS/48, and VORP, were quite similar between ages 19-22. Data points for those age groups show a relatively indistinguishable range of NBA-level success. The hypothesis of this study is found to be correct, as the data shows that age is not a significant measure in acquiring NBA talent. However, age 23 results do fall drastically, and ages 24-25 currently do not have enough data points to form statistical inferences.
Discussion
The data shows that age is not a determining factor of evaluating potential in amateur basketball players. While there are certainly other components in the NBA’s inclination towards youth, such as possessing more prime years of a player or finding talent to fit a team’s timeline, statistical analysis proves that college juniors can be just as successful as a “one-and-done”-type player. Amateur players should not be punished for honing their skills before entering the professional game, they should be rewarded for maturity, work ethic, and collegiate success. If/when Commissioner Adam Silver decides to revert draft eligibility back to the rules enforced prior to 2006, the modern NBA draft strategy will encourage adolescent players to skip college altogether – a development that could stunt the career of many aspiring NBA players completely unnecessarily.