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Dartmouth Sports Analytics’ World Cup Preview

It has been a strange year in soccer. After an exciting summer transfer window, crowded calendars for domestic competitions include many midweek fixtures to make way for a November FIFA World Cup. With the tournament kicking off in Qatar this week, members of DSA previewed each of the eight groups.

GROUP A - QATAR, ECUADOR, NETHERLANDS, SENEGAL

Luke Wisniewski '26

Qatar

The hosts of this year’s tournament, Qatar are making the nation’s first ever appearance in the FIFA World Cup. But despite their lack of experience on this big stage, they do not lack experience when it comes to their roster. Five players on their World Cup squad have either surpassed or are close to surpassing 100 caps for their nation, providing veteran leadership and guidance for a side that will be looking to not allow the moment to get to them. Additionally, even though FIFA rules grant Qatar automatic qualification to the tournament as hosts, Qatar’s record in their pre-tournament tune-up matches demonstrated the strength of their defense: their preferred 5-3-2 formation. In tune-up games, Qatar allowed an average of 0.12 goals per game, perhaps implying that they may not be the easy out they are expected to be, even when playing against the more possession-heavy teams in their group.

Ecuador

Perhaps the nation with the most contentious route to qualification – Chile made repeated attempts to deny Ecuador’s qualification due to issues stemming from a player’s nationality – Ecuador will be hoping for a more stable venture in their trip to Qatar. While young starlets such as Moisés Caicedo and Pervis Estupiñán (both of Brighton and Hove Albion) may garner the most attention, their veteran presence and leadership – most notably coming in the form of captain Enner Valencia (Fenerbahçe), the target man at the top of their 4-3-3 (or 4-4-2) formation – will be crucial if Ecuador are to qualify out of this group. On the injury front, Ecuador will be without key player Joao Rojas, in addition to the questionable statuses of Robert Arboleda and Ayrton Preciado, potentially dampening their World Cup hopes. Additionally, Ecuador struggled to engage their full attacking potential in their tune-up matches, averaging only 1.5 goals per game in preparation for Qatar.

Netherlands

After surprisingly failing to qualify for the World Cup in 2018, Netherlands come to Qatar in 2022 with fire, and a strong, organized side to boot. Talented and highly energetic across the board, this Dutch side will overwhelm opponents with their attacking quality. Led in tune-ups by FC Barcelona man Memphis Depay, the Netherlands averaged 3.3 goals per game and will be hoping to maintain their run of dominance in a potential deep run in this World Cup tournament. However, the lineup selection for the Oranje was not without controversy. Jasper Cillessen, the goalkeeper for the Netherlands’ third place run in 2014, was left out of the team in favor of three keepers without any World Cup experience. Look for this lack of experience to potentially bite the Dutch the further they go in the tournament.

Senegal

The current champions of Africa, Senegal will be hoping to replicate their magical run to the quarterfinals of the 2002 World Cup after a disappointing showing in the 2018 tournament. The Lions of Teranga will be hoping that their World Cup hopes are not dashed from the start, as their star Sadio Mané (Bayern Munich) is now unable to play in the tournament due to an injury he sustained this month. Fortunately, Senegal have plenty of talent all across the pitch: from Kalidou Koulibaly (Chelsea) in the back line to Idrissa Gueye (Everton) holding the midfield, opponents will be hard pressed to find weaknesses in this team. However, at left back, Senegal faces an interesting predicament. Their starting left back, Saliou Ciss, has been without a club since the summer (and thus was not selected in the squad), and their main replacement options are dealing with injuries. However, this generally well-rounded squad proved itself throughout tune-ups, averaging 1.92 goals for — compared to 0.36 goals against — per game.

Prediction: 1) Netherlands, 2) Qatar, 3) Senegal, 4) Ecuador

Though many American fans (as well as many well-known managers, such as Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp) may believe that greater possession — and an overall stronger attack — is what wins soccer matches, recent history at the World Cup suggests otherwise. At the 2018 World Cup, Germany averaged an astonishing 72% of possession through the group stage yet did not advance out of their group, while Russia utilized a mere 37.6% of possession and made a run to the quarterfinals of the tournament. Additionally, Germany averaged 1.98 expected goals (a metric that measures how many times a team should score given the quality and quantity of their attacking chances) per game, while Russia averaged only 0.77. However, Russia’s key advantage lay in its defense: the Russians allowed an average of 0.88 goals per game in their tournament run, while Germany allowed an average of 1.33. Additionally, the champions of the tournament, France, rode a strong defensive record — averaging only 48.6% of possession (19th out of 32 teams in the tournament) yet allowing an average of only 0.86 goals against per game — to the title. 

Based on this data, we might be compelled to conclude that defense wins championships when it comes to the World Cup. However, the 2014 World Cup offers an incredibly different perspective on this question. The 2014 final featured two of the top seven teams in terms of possession, albeit in a much less polarized setting. Germany, the champions, led the tournament in percentage of possession, but at a mere 57.9%. 

Through our analysis of the possession percentage compared to the ultimate success of teams within the World Cup, we can see that there is incredibly little correlation between percentage of possession and the team’s success. Though goal efficiency (computed by finding the difference between number of goals scored and expected goals) has a relationship with the ultimate success of teams that is far from one-to-one (R2 = 0.273), the relationship between these two variables proved to display the stronger correlation. 

Ultimately, while high possession rates may fuel a strong attack, in the high stakes environment of the World Cup, it does not guarantee success. Rather, it is offensive efficiency, taking advantage of the attacking opportunities presented to each team, that is a more important factor in the success of a team.

Clearly, possession is not everything. Furthermore, only one host nation in the history of the World Cup has failed to make it out of the group stages. While the Netherlands’ possession heavy strategy will lift them above the competition, Qatar’s defensive strength will wear down the attacks of Senegal and Ecuador, allowing for the hosts to advance to the Round of 16.


GROUP B - ENGLAND, IRAN, USA, WALES

Sangha (Noel) Jang '25

For any fan wanting to follow a so-called “Group of Death,” perhaps Group B is the perfect watch. As the only group where all four teams are ranked in the top 20 of the FIFA World Rankings, Group B guarantees a high level of quality in all of its matches. Only 15 ranks separate top-ranked England (5) and bottom-ranked Iran (20), making Group B one the most contested groups in this World Cup. With teams of such similar quality, Group B is expected to be a bloodbath where it would be unsurprising for any team to come out on top or to be rock-bottom. 

England 

If one team was to be considered the stand-out giants in the group, it would have to be England. Without a trophy since 1966, England will be looking to finally end 56 years of drought. Head manager Gareth Southgate comes off of two deep runs in major tournaments with a semifinal appearance in the 2018 World Cup and a final in the 2020 Euros, where England lost in penalties. With anything less than the trophy now considered a disappointing tournament, Southgate and his men bear great pressure to bring the title home. Expected to play a 3-4-2-1 formation, England’s wing-backs will be crucial for a successful run. Unfortunately, Southgate’s preferred right-back of Chelsea’s Reece James will not be on the trip due to injury. It will be up to Liverpool’s Trent Alexander Arnold and Newcastle’s Kieran Trippier to provide attacking prowess on the right wing. On the other side, it will be interesting to see if Luke Shaw of Manchester United can repeat his good form from Euro 2020. The squad’s weakest link is in the center-backs, with Southgate opting to call-up out-of-form Harry Maguire of Manchester United over the likes of AC Milan’s Fikayo Tomori, who won the scudetto. Manchester City’s Kyle Walker comes off of an injury and is still in doubt regarding match-fitness. Regardless, England fans have much to be excited about, with talisman and captain Harry Kane of Tottenham Hotspur in good recent form with twelve goals in the Premier League season so far. Borussia Dortmund’s Jude Bellingham will be a player in contention for the Young Player Award. With a squad overflowing with young talent and experience, Southgate will be looking to go one step further this time around and capture the trophy. 

Iran

The highest ranked team in Asia, Iran has established itself as a World Cup regular. However, the 2022 qualification campaign saw Iran struggling in the AFC qualification second round. They finally found their footing in the final round and qualified for their third consecutive World Cup after topping their group. Iran’s head manager Carlos Queiroz is their main talisman, leading Iran into becoming one of Asia’s most respected teams. Queiroz oversaw Iran’s campaigns in the 2014 and 2018 World Cups with a record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Though Queiroz left the national team after the 2019 Asian Cup, he has made a dramatic comeback two months before the World Cup. Queiroz will be hoping third time’s the charm as he seeks to take Iran to the knockout stages for the first time. Iran will most likely play a 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1 formation, with Queiroz’s signature two-line “swamp” defense the main game plan. Paramount to such counter-attacking tactics is a quick and lethal striker, and fortunately for Iran, they have the likes of Medhi Tarehmi and Sardar Azmoun up top. Porto’s Tarehmi is in hot form from a Primeira Liga Top Scorer winning season in 2020 and five goals in five games in this season’s Champions League. The status of Bayer Leverkusen’s Sardar Azmoun has been in doubt due to an injury, but is expected to be fit for Iran’s opener. Though Iran has the oldest average age of this year’s tournament, their experience is not to be taken lightly. With an effective balance of defensive discipline, attacking firepower, and a touch of experienced wit, Iran have reason to hope for their first knockout game. 

United States of America 

In direct contrast to Iran, the USA has the second-youngest team in this year’s tournament. Such youth reflects the exciting budding of talent in US men’s soccer. After missing out in the 2018 World Cup, USA has seen a major rebuild of the national team with Inter Miami’s Deandre Yedlin the only player to have appeared in a World Cup. Qualification was again not easy as the USA picked up the final automatic qualification stop after placing third in CONCACAF’s third round, only beating out Costa Rica on goal-difference. Still, the USA will definitely be excited to be back on soccer’s biggest stage after eight years. This year’s squad is also arguably the most talented group of players the USA has sent to the World Cup. With several players performing in Europe’s top leagues, head manager Gregg Berhalter has a talented roster to utilize. Juventus midfielder Weston McKennie has eleven appearances for the Italian club in Serie A this season and will be key to USA’s performance at the World Cup. Fellow Serie A player Sergino Dest of AC Milan is also expected to bring his attack-minded defense to the squad. Leeds United duo Brenden Aaronson and Tyler Adams have played a large role in increasing Leeds’ popularity within the country, and along with Josh Sargent of Norwich City, the trio will bring Premier League experience to the team. Team captain and talisman Christian Pulisic is the man to watch, and USA’s performance will largely rely on his form. Considering his lack of minutes at Chelsea, Pulisic will have to make sure he is fully prepared for his first World Cup. The lack of major international tournament experience is a major obstacle USA will have to face, and their performance will reflect how well Berhalter manages and leads this group of young talent. 

Wales

After a 64-year wait, Wales have finally made a return to the World Cup, last appearing in 1958 in Sweden. Wales’ qualification process was far from easy, as they grabbed one of the last few spots at the World Cup through the European playoff rounds. After a successful run reaching the semi-finals of Euros 2016, Wales saw a disappointing exit in the Round of 16 at Euros 2020. Head manager Rob Page will be looking to find success in Wales’ first World Cup in decades but will first have to fully integrate the team. Wales has a vast range of players varying in age and experience. OGC Nice’s Aaron Ramsey is a seasoned midfielder who will be crucial in bringing experience and leadership to the team. Veteran goalkeeper Wayne Henessey of Nottingham Forest is also expected to start between the sticks and will be busy shot-stopping in an attack-heavy group. Wales’ squad also includes several young players looking to have a breakout tournament. Twenty-one year old Brennen Johnson of Nottingham Forest has two goals in fifteen appearances in the Premier League, and will look to score at the World Cup as well. Daniel James of Fulham is also a speedy winger with a lot of potential to give opposition defenders a difficult 90 minutes. Tottenham duo Ben Davies and Joe Rodon (on loan to Rennes) will be the anchor in the back. Davies’ newfound renaissance under Tottenham manager Antonio Conte will give Wales plenty of stability in defense. Neco Williams, also of Nottingham Forest, will bring youthful talent at right back. Of course, the main talisman is Gareth Bale, who is a player many fans will be excited to see at a World Cup. It was Bale’s goal against Ukraine in the European playoff that sealed Wales qualification, and his recent MLS Cup win with Los Angeles FC is testament to his unchanging class. Wales have much to look forward to in their first world cup in ages, but integrating youth and experience will be crucial to their success. 

Prediction: 1) England, 2) Iran, 3) Wales, 4) USA

With such a high caliber of world-class players and previous success, it is hard to see England not making it out of the group. Though none of the games will be easy, England will most likely be able to capitalize on chances effectively. Iran will have high expectations going into the tournament, and with their head manager Carlos Queiroz back at the helm, they should be able to cause a few upsets. The USA has an abundance of young talent, but their lack of tournament experience could end up being their achilles heel. The experience gained by these players in this World Cup could pay off, however, when the tournament heads to the U.S. in 2026. Wales will be looking to get their first win at a World Cup in decades, but the lack of an outright in-form striker may make it a struggle to find goals. Overall, the group should be tightly contested, with all four teams likely to still be able to advance or be knocked-out on the final matchday. 


GROUP C - ARGENTINA, MEXICO, POLAND, SAUDI ARABIA

Luke Wisniewski '26

Highlighted by aging stars Lionel Messi and Robert Lewandowski, Group C offers no shortage of firepower. Argentina come in with sky-high expectations in what Lionel Messi has already said will be his last World Cup, while Poland and Mexico will be looking to shake off recent struggles in international competition. And Saudi Arabia? They will be coming in ready to ruin the dreams of many, while also hoping to make a successful run of their own.

Argentina

In what will likely be superstar Lionel Messi’s final World Cup appearance, Argentina will be expecting nothing less than to come out as champions. La Albiceleste already have one key point in their favor on their trip to Qatar: the official EA Sports simulation of the World Cup — which correctly predicted the past two World Cup champions — projected Argentina to emerge as title winners. In the physical field of play, there is great reason for such optimism, as this Argentina team is laden with talent. Emi Martínez (Aston Villa) appears to have cemented himself as a stalwart between the goalposts, and defenders Cristian Romero (Tottenham Hotspur) and Lisandro Martínez (Manchester United) will look to headline an improved defense after a lackluster 2018 tournament, where the side allowed an average of 2.25 goals per game. Watch for this improved defense to allow an always potent attack to create even more attacking chances.

Mexico

For a nation which has had so much success, Mexico enters this World Cup at somewhat of a boiling point with fans. Mexico have not advanced past the Round of 16 since 1986, and fans’ patience is running thin. To make matters worse, target man Raúl Jiménez (Wolverhampton Wanderers) will likely be limited for much of El Tri’s tournament, a major blow to their attack. However, a veteran Mexico side will still feel very much favored to advance from the group. Combining experienced players such as goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa (Club América), defender Héctor Moreno (Monterrey), and midfielder Andrés Guardado (Real Betis) with younger talent like midfielder Edson Álvarez (Ajax) and Alexis Vega (Chivas Guadalajara), this team will be hoping to show that they are once again an opponent to be reckoned with.

Poland

Even though Poland have not reached a World Cup knockout stage since 1982, this team does not lack experience playing on the big stage. In addition to goal-scoring machine Robert Lewandowski (FC Barcelona), midfielder Piotr Zieliński (Napoli) is a star who has been playing at a world class level in recent weeks. Though goalkeeper Wojciech Szczęsny (Juventus) has been struggling for his club as of late, his talent and leadership behind the formidable center back pairing of Jan Bednarek (Aston Villa) and Kamil Glik (Benevento) will make this Poland defense a tough shell to break. In addition to seasoned veterans, Poland also brings four players aged 22 or younger, hoping to offer an influx of youth and energy into a team that could use a kick to break past its recent failures in major tournaments.

Saudi Arabia

Given the talent of the other three teams in their group, much of the talk surrounding Saudi Arabia has been about what they lack compared to their competition. However, they have one major advantage over the rest of the group (and tournament): fitness and team chemistry. The Saudi Arabian league (where all players on the Saudi Arabian national team happen to play) imposed a break in play for over a month before the World Cup, allowing the national team to play additional tune-up matches as a squad. Unfortunately, the Saudis only managed to score four times in the nine tune-up fixtures. The Green Falcons’ success may thus depend on the health of winger Salem Al-Dawsari (Al-Hilal), who was the primary goal scorer in qualifying games with seven goals in 13 matches, but sat out several of the tune-up matches with injury. Ultimately, this is an experienced and confident team after topping their qualification group who will be poised to offer surprises in Qatar.

Prediction: 1) Argentina, 2) Poland, 3) Mexico, 4) Saudi Arabia

With exception to Saudi Arabia, these teams are no strangers to each other on the big stage. Argentina and Mexico have had multiple encounters in the World Cup, as well as in other competitions such as the Copa America. However, it has consistently been the Argentinians who have had the upper hand, having won all three World Cup matches against Mexico. In fact, over all competitions, Argentina have gone 10 games without suffering defeat to Mexico. In 2019, a friendly between the two sides saw Argentina come out as 4-0 winners.

The matchup between Poland and Argentina has seen fewer matches than that between Argentina and Mexico. In World Cup play, the matchup is split at one game a piece. On the whole, Argentina have a record of 6-3-2 over the Orły. However, in the most recent match between the two teams (a 2011 friendly), Poland were victorious, defeating Argentina 2-1.

Mexico and Poland have been incredibly evenly split over their history, having a perfect 3-3-3 record over nine matches. However, Mexico have gone undefeated in the last six games of the matchup. In the only World Cup match between the two teams, the 1978 game saw Poland victorious by a score of 3-1. In a 2017 friendly, the last time the two sides met, Mexico won 1-0.

Argentina, Mexico, and Poland have all yet to face defeat to Saudi Arabia across all competitions. Though none of the teams have faced Saudi Arabia in the World Cup, the teams hold a combined 10-0-3 record over the Green Falcons.

Given Mexico’s struggles against Argentina, anticipate a real fight between them and Poland for second place, with Saudi Arabia potentially playing a spoiler role.


GROUP D - AUSTRALIA, DENMARK, FRANCE, TUNISIA

Alex Wojcik '23

In Group D, all eyes are on France, the 2018 World Cup winners. While a young Kylian Mbappe returns at just 23 years of age, the “World Cup Curse” holds over them. Starting with the French team after their 1998 victory, the previous World Cup winners have failed to get out of the group stage in the 2002, 2010, 2014, and 2018 World Cups.

Perhaps a sign of the curse, this year’s French team has been plagued with injuries. In recent weeks, Paul Pogba, N’Golo Kanté, Raphaël Varane — all important members of the 2018 winning squad — are out of the tournament with injury. Most recently, Karim Benzema, the Ballon D’Or winner, now will not play after picking up a quad injury in training with the team in Qatar.

But which teams stand in their way of getting out of the group? A successful Danish team, ranked 10th in the most recent FIFA Rankings, is a serious contender. After recovering from the cardiac arrest he suffered during the Euros in 2021, midfielder Christian Eriksen has found his form again at Manchester United, with a goal and four assists in 13 Premier League appearances this season.

For the second qualification spot, France faces easier competition. Australia, ranked 38th in FIFA, could not beat Japan or 51st-ranked Saudi Arabia in their Asian Football Confederation Qualifiers. They then needed to squeak by Peru in penalties in the FIFA Inter-confederation play-off. Tunisia, ranked at 30, defeated 46th-ranked Mali to qualify from the Confederation of African Football. Against stronger competition, they most recently lost to Brazil 5-1 in a September friendly in Paris. In fact, in comparing across all groups, Tunisia at 30 has the second lowest ranking among third best teams according to the FIFA rankings — an important comparison to understand the competition for the two spots to escape the group. Only 44th-ranked Ecuador is ranked lower and still third-best in Group A, a group which includes host and 50th-ranked Qatar.

Prediction: 1) Denmark, 2) France, 3) Tunisia, 4) Australia

The injuries France has faced already doesn’t bode well for their chances in the knockout rounds, and a Tunisian team, captained by striker Youseff Msakni who plays domestically in Qatar, could pull out an upset in the Qatari heat. Regardless, expect France to use their depth to escape a weak group.


GROUP E - SPAIN, COSTA RICA, GERMANY, JAPAN

Benjamin Williams '26

With a revived Spanish side and a Germany team looking to rebound from their early flight home in 2018, it is easy to assume these squads, ranked 7th and 11th respectively, will be the ones to extend their stay in Qatar. However, if there is anything that the World Cup has taught us, it is that we should not rule out the underdogs.  In this case, Japan and Costa Rica will be looking to steal points from the higher-ranked sides in order to propel themselves into the Round of 16.  

Japan will look to break their alternating exit pattern, going back and forth between group stage and Round of 16 exits. Such a pattern has taken hold since 1998, which would suggest that Japan will not be making it out of the group stage in 2022. However, the core of the Japanese team, including Monaco’s Takumi Minamino and Arsenal’s Takehiro Tomiyasu, could propel the Samurai Blue out of the group.

Despite being the lowest ranked team in the group at No. 31, Costa Rica should not be written off.  Although they were ranked 34th in May 2014, they reached the quarter finals of the 2014 World Cup.  Furthermore, Costa Rica has the unique advantage of playing many games under high temperatures, a trait which could be hugely advantageous in Qatar’s climate. Even if Costa Rica are unable to dominate other nations, having the experienced Keylor Navas in net could bolster Costa Rica’s ability to maintain small leads; this could be all Costa Rica needs to grab a few points and advance in the tournament.

At first glance, this group may look like a cookie-cutter group in which the two highest ranked teams will easily advance. However, it would be naïve to believe that Japan and Costa Rica do not have the ability to wreak havoc on widespread expectations and make a run in this year’s World Cup.

Prediction: 1) Spain, 2) Japan, 3) Germany, 4) Costa Rica


GROUP F - Croatia, Belgium, Morocco, Canada

Fintan Letzelter '26

Group F features two heavyweights in 2018’s tournament, Belgium and Croatia, a tournament staple in Morocco, and a newcomer in Canada that has not made the World Cup since 1986. 

Belgium is the tournament’s third-oldest team, with many of its 2018 stars on the wrong side of the aging curve. Striker Romelu Lukaku hasn’t been in good form since before transferring to Chelsea in 2021, Eden Hazard has had chronic injury problems in recent years, and 35-year old defender Jan Vertonghen signing for Belgian Pro League side Anderlecht, after spending most of his career with Tottenham. Still, Belgium has arguably the world’s best midfielder, Kevin De Bruyne, and so the team is still a force to be reckoned with. 

Croatia is the group’s youngest side, with an average age of 26.4. The squad features key players from the 2018 run, but also fresh faces, creating uncertainty about how far the team can go. Talisman midfielder Luka Modric remains a powerful force, even at 37, providing an anchor for the team. With many from the 2018 squad retiring from international football, spots have been left open for players like Chelsea midfielder Mateo Kovacic. Despite losing a good chunk of the 2018 core, with a player like Modric, and a supporting cast as talented as Croatia have, another run deep into the tournament is certainly possible. 

Croatia and Belgium have the experience of deep runs in the world cup, but Morocco and Canada have enough talent to give them serious trouble in the group stage. Morocco are led by PSG fullback Achraf Hakimi, one of the world’s best in his position, and Chelsea midfielder Hakim Ziyech. Morocco went unbeaten in World Cup qualifying, with a goal difference of +19, and haven’t lost a non-friendly match since January of this year. They come into the tournament red hot, and will look to make it out of the group stages, which they failed to do in the 2018 tournament. 

The Canadians are looking to make a splash in their second World Cup, their first since 1986.They are led by world-class fullback Alphonso Davies, who plays for Bayern Munich, and Lille striker Jonathan David leads the frontline. The Canadians, who are predicted by many to finish bottom of the group, could become fan favorites, as their up-and-coming underdog story may be endearing to many. 

Group F is arguably the most well-rounded group in the tournament, with world-class players on every squad. Morocco and Canada will try to play spoiler to the more established Belgian and Croatian sides, and it will be a joy to watch play out (just as any World Cup is). 

Prediction: 1) Croatia, 2) Belgium, 3) Morocco, 4) Canada


GROUP G - BRAZIL, CAMEROON, SERBIA, SWITZERLAND

Gabe Gottesman '26

Headlined by the flashy five-time World Cup winners, Group G has an average FIFA ranking of 20th and a clash of foundational play styles that will determine who will claim the second spot for a bid in the knockout stage.

Brazil

The world No. 1 team coming into the tournament, Brazil is studded with stars across the pitch and backed by incredible depth at every position. Of course, the team’s leader and most talented player is Neymar, a 30-year-old still searching for his first World Cup title. Eight years ago, Neymar’s best shot at lifting the Cup was thwarted by a one-game suspension that led to the infamous 7-1 thrashing at the hands of Germany in the semi-finals. After a disappointing finish in the quarter-finals of the 2018 World Cup in Russia against Belgium, Neymar has his best supporting cast yet to capture the holy grail of soccer.

Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Vinícius Júnior, Casemiro, and others make up a Brazil team that has their expectations set on winning the entire tournament, with any lower finish resulting in disappointment. Brazil’s manager Tite has had a successful run so far since he took over in 2016, with the feature outcome being the 2019 Copa America victory. Brazil’s style of play is centered around the immense talent they have across the pitch, with Neymar serving as a focal point in the center of the attack. They play four at the back, and attackers including Richarlison and Gabriel Jesus should play off of Neymar’s finesse for goal scoring opportunities throughout the tournament. For a country with an embarrassment of riches in terms of talent across all positions, and a fiery desire to get a World Cup title for the new generation of Brazilians, there is no doubt that Brazil should be looked at as a formidable contender to lift the trophy in Qatar.

Cameroon

Cameroon's eighth appearance in the World Cup is highly anticipated after not qualifying for Russia in 2018. Cameroon enters the tournament as the lowest ranked member of Group G, and their chances of advancing out of the group into the knockout stage are largely dependent on the stars of the team: Napoli midfielder Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Forward’s Vincent Aboubakar and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, and goalkeeper Andre Onana. The team’s style is based around possession in the midfield, which could be exploited by the pace and consistency of the other squads in the group, especially Brazil. The team is also the youngest in Group G, with an average age just over 26. Whether Cameroon’s expectations are set on winning a game, advancing to the knockout round, or winning the whole tournament, there must be caution before counting out the young squad’s potential and form from their qualifying rounds where they finished atop their group that included Algeria and Ivory Coast. 

Serbia

Serbia’s pre-tournament hype is noticeably strong, especially given their 21st spot in the FIFA World Rankings, but it is not without merit. Serbia enters the tournament with a top-four goal scorer in the qualifying round, forward Aleksandar Mitrovic, who hit the back of the net eight times in as many appearances. Yet, Mitrovic might not even be the Serbians’ most lethal attacker, with his 22-year-old strike partner Dusan Vlahovic proving to be a star in the making who could break out in Qatar. What Serbia provides in offense, averaging over two goals per game in qualifying, they lack in protecting their own net, allowing nine goals in their eight matches. Yet, after finishing at the top of their group in Group A of the European division (including Portugal), Serbia should not be overlooked as a dangerous dark horse to make a deep run in Qatar over the next month. 

Switzerland

Switzerland looked sharp in the qualifying rounds of the World Cup, topping their group ahead of Italy, who were coming off a championship in the Euros. The team boasts an outstanding defense, with Xhaka and Freuler serving as the bridge between the attack and the backline that only condeeded two goals throughout the qualifiers. The Swiss will need to channel a consistent offensive stretch to keep up with the firepower of Brazil and Serbia, and it may be carried by the feet of Breel Embolo, who comes into the World Cup averaging a goal in every other game for Monaco. With the strong midfield that holds possession and finds shifty avenues for counterattacks to Embolo, Noah Okafor, and Co., Switzerland should have a strong chance to replicate their success from the 2020 Euros, where they upset mighty France and took Spain to penalties before being eliminated. In a strong group with diversified styles of play, Switzerland will need to focus on surviving their first three matches before looking to play spoilers again in the knockout stage of a major tournament.

Prediction: 1) Brazil, 2) Switzerland, 3) Serbia, 4) Cameroon

There is no question that Brazil has the talent to beat any team in the world, and Switzerland’s consistent hold of possession and stout defense should provide enough to fend off Serbia and Cameroon.


GROUP H - PORTUGAL, URUGUAY, SOUTH KOREA, GHANA

Eason Ma '26

Group H could be one of the most competitive groups in World Cup 2022. Highlighted by Cristiano Ronaldo and Son Heung-Min, this group combines top talents from Europe, South America, Asia, and Africa. Shaking off the defeat of Euro 2021 and World Cup 2018, Portugal, with its emerging talents from top European clubs, is trying to reach its historic height. The competition among South Korea, Uruguay, and Ghana for the second seat to the elimination stage will definitely make this group more attractive than most others.

Portugal

In a recent interview, Cristiano Ronaldo explicitly said that he would immediately retire if Portugal wins the World Cup. After the golden age with Luis Figo and Rui Costa, Ronaldo has been carrying Portugal for over a decade. And, after the surprising victory in Euro 2016, Portugal has been experiencing an outburst of talent while simultaneously struggling in the transition to the younger generation.

In Euro 2021, to protect the two elderly center backs, Pepe and Fonte, the roster was centered backwards, sacrificing the speed of counter-attacks. In the qualification games and European Nations League, with the team getting younger, Coach Fernando Santos eventually went back to a 4-3-3 formation and changed the counter-attack game style to active pressing and possession. The fierce front attack centered around Ronaldo, Diogo Jota, Bernardo Silva, and Bruno Fernandes contributed 18 goals and 10 assists in 12 games of European Qualifiers. With Jota’s injury and Ronaldo’s recent downturn, Santos chose Raphael Leao, Joao Felix, and Goncalo Ramos as potential substitutes, and those choices show Santos’ intention to level up in terms of both physicality and dribbling ability to boost more individual-driven attacking attempts. In Euro 2021, the slow horizontal mobility of its defensive midfielders, Danilo Pereira and William Carvalho were highly criticized. Portugal is still facing the same problem. Pereira has been transformed to the rotation of center backs, but Carvalho, despite his nightmarish performance over the years, is still Santos’ top preference. Especially with two top attacking wing backs, Nuno Mendes and Joao Cancelo, the ability of defensive midfielders covering the space behind Mendes and Cancelo is crucial. Therefore, Santos’ choices among Vitinha, Rúben Neves, Palhinha, Carvalho and Matheus Nunes will determine how far Portugal can go in this year’s tournament.

Uruguay

With Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani both aging, Uruguay is in search of new leaders to take on the responsibility and relive the glory of the two-time World Cup winner. In World Cup 2010, Uruguay made it to the semi-final, and in World Cup 2018, it was Uruguay that eliminated Portugal in the first round. With emerging talents like Darvin Nunez, Federico Valverde, and Rodrigo Bentancur, the competitiveness of Uruguay cannot be ignored. 

Transferring from Juventus to Tottenham Hotspur in the last season’s winter window, Bentancur has been experiencing the prime of his career. In the 2021-22 Premier League, Bentencur started 16 games for Hotspur, contributing four assists, 1.2 successful tacking per game, and a 90% passing success rate. In World Cup 2018, it was his assist to Cavani that eventually eliminated Portugal. With an €80 million transfer fee to Liverpool, Darvin Nunez is gradually recovering his astonishing performance in Benfica, contributing nine goals and two assists in just 18 games played. With Real Madrid, Valverde has evolved to become a world-class B2B midfielder. His attacking talent was further developed by Carlo Ancelotti, who often put Valverde as right winger in crucial games. In the 2021-22 UCL final, Valverde, as the starting right winger, contributed the game-winning assist to Vinicius. The presence of Valverde will provide extreme flexibility for Uruguay in 4-4-2, 4-3-3, or 4-2-3-1 formations alike.

South Korea

Despite controversy throughout their 2002 run, South Korea is still the only Asian national team that has made it to the final four in the World Cup tournament. In World 2018, although South Korea did not enter the elimination stage, it unexpectedly defeated Germany in Game 3, directly leading to the Germans’ elimination. As a team stressing physical strength and strategic togetherness, South Korea has an exceptional level of discipline among Asian national teams. In the final round of Asian qualification games, South Korea only had one defeat out of ten games, scoring 13 goals while allowing a mere three. 

As the undisputed strongest Asian soccer player, Son Heung-Min finished as No. 1 goal-scorer in the 2021-22 Premier League and scored seven goals in 12 games in the Asian Qualifiers. This season, with Antonio Conte moving him back as second striker, Son has been experiencing some struggles in this change of role, scoring five goals in 19 games. Although previously injured in the UCL game with Olympique Marseille, Son managed to make it to World Cup games with the permission of wearing a mask. Kim Min-Jae is another key player in South Korea’s roster. As the core player of Napoli’s defense, Kim’s top performance as Center Back contributed to Napoli’s undefeated record in Serie A. Kim was selected as Serie A MVP in September and valued at €35 million by Transfer Market.

Ghana

Ranked 61st by FIFA, Ghana is expected to be the underdog in Group H. Ghana has only participated in World Cup tournaments three times — 2006, 2010, and 2014 — while making it to the final eight in 2010. Although the team captain Andre Ayew is aging and out of major competition, Ghana still has quite a few exceptional players active in major European leagues.

Inaki Williams, striker of Athletic Club, chose to play for Ghana instead of Spain. With exceptional speed and continuous healthy physical condition (with appearances for over 200 consecutive games for Athletic over the six years), Inaki has scored 75 goals in over 300 games for Athletic. In this season, Inaki shows his great condition by scoring five goals in 15 games. Further, the performance of Thomas Partey, starting midfielder of Arsenal, will be essential to Ghana’s overall record. With strong defensive plays, Thomas also possesses skillful passing techniques and shooting accuracy.

Prediction: 1) Portugal, 2) Uruguay, 3) South Korea, 4) Ghana

With absolute advantages over its competitors in Group H, Portugal is the most promising to finish first in this group. Competition between Uruguay and South Korea for the second place could be the main storyline in this group, and comparatively, Ghana is most likely to play nothing more than a spoiler role like South Korea did in World Cup 2018.