Introduction
This NBA season was wild. LeBron passed Kareem. Kevin Durant was traded. Luka missed the playoffs. But, some of the most fun that us viewers had all season was through the remarkable individual performances. And with great individual performances come great seasons, which lead a contentious Most Valuable Player race. Who will win? Some of our club members made the (analytical) case for some of the top candidates below.
Nikola Jokic
Quentin Proud '26
The 2022-2023 season marks what should be Nikola Jokic’s third consecutive MVP. Since winning the MVP in 2021, Jokic has improved each year – an almost impossible feat. In 2022-2023, Jokic delivered the best season of his career. It would be a shame if voter fatigue cost him a well-deserved MVP threepeat.
Jokic has long been considered the league’s analytics darling. This year is no exception. Jokic leads the league in BPM, true shooting percentage, and win shares. His RAPTOR metric (538’s take on all-encompassing basketball rating system) is 14.6 – a score twice as large as Giannis (6.4) and 6 greater than Embiid (8.4). According to RAPTOR, Jokic is the best offensive player in the NBA, by a wide margin, and the second best defender (behind Brook Lopez). In terms of simple counting stats, Jokic averaged 24.5 points per game on a ridiculous 63.2% from the field – compared to Embiid’s 54.8% field goal percentage. Jokic also averaged a 9.8 assists per game, smashing the record for most assists in a season ever by a center. He did all this on a 27.2% usage rate: a mark that puts him behind players such as Jordan Poole, Jordan Clarkson, and Keldon Johnson. This efficiency paid off; when Jokic was on the court, the Nuggets averaged 124.4 points per 100 possessions (a mark that would be far and away the best offense of all time). When Jokic was off the court, the team averaged a putrid 102.3 points per game. It’s clear that the analytics community supports Jokic: in a recent poll of NBA analytics experts, Jokic received ten votes for MVP while Embiid received only three.
Joel Embiid
Carter Sullivan '24
This is Joel Embiid’s MVP season. The Philadelphia 76ers' center has secured the NBA scoring title for the second year running, somehow managing to surpass last year’s 30.6 ppg with an absurd 33.1 ppg. Much of Embiid’s 2022-23 success can be attributed to his simply being on the court, as injuries and poor fitness have plagued him in years past. This year has been different, as Embiid averaged a career-high 34.6 minutes per game over 66 games played. With more minutes, of course, have come more scoring opportunities. Further, Embiid has been focusing these opportunities on 2-point shots, with a 3-point attempt rate of just 0.151 this season. This 3-point attempt rate is a career-low for the Philadelphia big man, and given his 33% 3 point percentage this season, he’s been wise to focus his efforts inside the arc. Additionally, between Embiid’s patented rip-through into a shot and aggressive play down low, he’s been prolific at drawing fouls this season, averaging a league-best 10 free throws per game.
On the defensive end, Embiid remains as dominant as ever, averaging 1.7 blocks per game (more than MVP runner-ups Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic combined). Merging this defensive excellence with Embiid’s offensive dominance, we get a 7-foot, 280-pound machine who can literally put his team on his back. This is clear in Embiid’s 13 40-plus point-games in 2022-23, including a dominant 52-point performance against the Celtics in early April. It was this performance that led many to declare Embiid as the 2022-23 MVP, as he showed the world what he’s capable of.
After this Celtics win, Sixers coach Doc Rivers declared that “the MVP race is over,” with Embiid being a clear favorite. While Rivers is heavily biased, there are many others who see Embiid as MVP. In a recent player poll, Embiid was the leader for MVP, with 50% of the players voting for him. Runner-up Nikola Jokic only received 25.2% of the votes in this poll. As you can see, the case for Embiid as MVP is strong, and is supported by the numbers, Embiid’s coach, and the players of the NBA. There’s only one question remaining: will the NBA’s MVP voters make the right decision, and vote Joel Embiid into the history books?
Jayson Tatum
Maclean Hadden '25
The case for any MVP begins with offensive production, and Tatum has posted the numbers this season to make him a strong candidate for the league’s Most Valuable Player award. Averaging above 30 points on a stacked Celtics team while racking up nearly 5 assists per game, Tatum has shown he is one of the league’s most capable producers. His scoring efficiency in particular has been a major improvement from last year, improving on his 27 points per game from last year despite attempting fewer field goals. A portion of this can be attributed to Tatum’s ability to draw the attention of opposing defenses, get to the foul line, and sink 85% of his 8 attempts per game from the charity stripe.
In the race for MVP, a player's effect on team success is essential, and although the Celtics have had their ups and downs this season, they are in a great position heading into the playoffs and seem even better set up for postseason success than they did a year ago, when they made it out of the eastern conference. Brown, Smart, and other key contributors make major impacts from game to game, but Tatum is the guy for the Celtics that they consistently count on for a bucket when the game’s on the line or for big threes to swing momentum down the stretch. His leadership however is not limited to the offensive end of the court as Tatum has made major improvements to his defensive game, cementing himself as one of the most balanced players in the league. Tatum showed he had the potential to become a top defender in the league last year, especially when he shut down Durant in the postseason and he should be expected to provide similar defensive performance through the 2023 postseason.
Recent years have seen the Celtics mixing it up at the top of the East and this current era of Boston basketball is centered around Jason Tatum. His offensive production checks all the boxes for a league’s most valuable player, and his leadership and defensive contributions only continue to improve as he develops into a certified NBA star. Outrageous offensive seasons have become more common in years of recent, and Jokic and Embiid are a couple of centers lighting the league on fire right now, but Tatum has shown a consistent ability to produce on both ends of the court and lead his team to the top of the NBA.