Last week's NFL wild card round produced some thrilling games, with the Buccaneers and Packers upsetting the Eagles and Cowboys, the Bills, Chiefs, and Texans winning blowout games, and the Lions' defense just barely holding on for their one-point win. In the AFC, the top four seeds remain, while in the NFC, the 7-seed Packers are looking to continue their hot streak against the 1-seeded 49ers. Our club members predict the upcoming divisional round below.
Houston Texans (4) @ Baltimore Ravens (1)
By Atul Venkatesh '27
It’s September 10th. The Ravens, a middle-of-the-pack playoff hopeful, took on a young, inexperienced Houston Texans team to kick off their 2023 campaign. The Ravens won an uneventful game by a final score of 25-9 and looked to perhaps steal a wildcard spot. Back then, if you had told anyone that these two teams would be facing off in the playoffs with an AFC Championship berth on the line, you would have been laughed out of the room. However, 20 weeks later, this seemingly insane prediction has come true as the AFC South champion Texans head into Baltimore to take on the first-seed Ravens.
How did the Texans, who came into the season with a projected over/under total of 5.5 wins, manage to win ten games and capture the division? It starts with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who has established himself as one of the premier passers in the league. This season, among QBs with 350 or more dropbacks, Stroud ranks 13th in PFF passing grade (80.4), 13th in turnover-worthy play percentage (2.9), 15th in big-time throw percentage (4.7), 3rd in NFL passer rating (103.5), and 12th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback (0.16). While Stroud is only a rookie, he plays like a seasoned veteran, and his numbers reflect that. The main beneficiary of the Texans’ upgrade at QB has been Nico Collins. Quite possibly the most improved player in the NFL, Collins has quietly put himself into the top 10 conversation at receiver. Among players with 100 or more targets, Collins ranks sixth in PFF receiving grade (91.0), second in yards per route run (3.17), and second in yards after catch per reception (7.0) - absurd numbers for someone who had less than 1,000 yards in his previous two seasons combined.
It’s undeniable that the Texans had offensive talent, but they seemed to be a couple of pieces away from reaching their full potential. After all, they were 31st in offensive EPA per play in 2022. The offense was expected to improve, but not by much. However, in 2023, the Texans blew all expectations out of the water and jumped up to 14th in terms of EPA per play. What caused this astronomical leap? The answer lies in the playcalling of first-year offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. Slowik’s Shanahan-style West Coast offense has been a perfect fit for CJ Stroud. The pair’s chemistry has neutralized the rookie quarterback learning curve and aided the production of receivers like Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Texans have held their own. Demeco Ryans and company boast the 12th-best defense in terms of EPA per play allowed. The defense consists of young talent and seasoned veterans. Rookie edge Will Anderson has anchored the defensive line, ranking third in terms of pass rush win rate. Linebacker Blake Cashman has had a productive year, ranking 5th among LBs with an 82.9 PFF grade. Second-year cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. leads the secondary, ranking fifth among CBs with an 84.4 PFF grade.
While the Texans have gone from bad to good, the Ravens have gone from good to great. The biggest difference from last year’s Ravens is the coaching staff. The Ravens dug into the college ranks, nabbing Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken to coach the offense and Michigan defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald to lead the defense. Both coaches have been incredible for the Ravens. Monken’s offensive scheme has opened the passing game, and MacDonald has brought a tenacity to the defense eerily similar to the Ravens of 2000.
The Ravens offense is led by a revitalized Lamar Jackson, who made the first-team All-Pro for the first time since his stellar 2019 season. Among quarterbacks with 360 or more dropbacks, Lamar is sixth in PFF passing grade (85.4), seventh in turnover-worthy play percentage (2.5), and fourth in NFL passer rating (102.5). The MVP frontrunner’s improvisational skills and ability to destroy teams in the run game have been a major contributor to Baltimore’s success. The Ravens have also benefited from another newcomer: Zay Flowers. Baltimore has been looking for a wide receiver one to pair with Lamar, and Flowers might be the answer. Among rookies with over 40 targets, Flowers ranks third in yards after catch (391) and third in contested catch percentage (50). In addition to Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr. has shown glimpses of his old self, and Isaiah Likely has filled in excellently for the injured Mark Andrews.
Defensively, everything seems to be clicking for the Ravens. Defensive lineman Justin Madubuike and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney have both had career years, each posting 10 or more sacks. Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are the best linebacker duo in the league, with the former being given first-team All-Pro honors and the latter being named to the second-team All-Pro. In the secondary, safety Kyle Hamilton has progressed into being one of the best coverage safeties in the league. MacDonald’s squad ranks second in terms of EPA/Play allowed.
The Ravens are, without a doubt, the best team in the league, but the Texans are no slouch either. Can the Texans come out of Baltimore with an upset win, or will Baltimore continue their reign of terror across the AFC? Houston silenced some of the doubters last week as their offense tore apart a vaunted Browns defense. The Ravens, however, are a different animal. Not only do the Texans need to deal with an equally tenacious defense, but they also need a game plan against a Ravens offense that ranks third in yards per play and fourth in points scored. I find it difficult to imagine that the Texans will be able to keep up with Baltimore. The Ravens outmatch the Texans at essentially every position. Points will be hard to come by for Stroud’s offense as they face the best defense in terms of points allowed. This will be a low-scoring affair, but in the end, the Ravens will come out on top and cover the spread. If the Texans want any chance at this one, the defense needs to contain Lamar Jackson and hold the Ravens to less than 20 points. It may seem like a Herculean task, but we’ve seen crazier.
Kansas City Chiefs (3) @ Buffalo Bills (2)
By Sammy Ryan ‘26
In a rematch of an intense Week 14 matchup and the AFC championship two years ago, the Bills and Chiefs face off in the divisional round of the playoffs. These teams are two of the hottest teams in football, with the Bills coming off a six-game win streak and the Chiefs having won their last three games as well. Both teams are coming off of extremely cold wildcard games, and are now itching to continue one of the major rivalries within the AFC. With the spread leaning towards the Bills at -2.5 and the over/under being at 45.5 points, this game has the makings of a close, high-scoring game that should be entertaining for all football fans.
Coming off the coldest game in their team’s history, the Chiefs are playing their first road playoff game in the Mahomes era. While Mahomes is been 2-0 in his career against the Bills in the playoffs, both of those came at home in Arrowhead Stadium. And, while Mahomes has put up impressive stats this season, he has faced challenges that he hadn’t in previous years. With the Kansas City Chiefs leading the NFL in dropped passes with 44, Mahomes has changed his playstyle a bit, with his average completed air yards dipping from 5.4 last season to four this season, tied for third lowest in the NFL. He still has continued his streak of 4,000-yard seasons, with this year being his sixth consecutive season accomplishing the feat. His top receiver in the last few weeks has been the incredible rookie Rashee Rice. In his postseason debut against the Dolphins in freezing weather, Rice ended the day with eight catches for 130 yards and a touchdown, leading the Chiefs in receptions, yards, and targets on the day. He’ll have a tougher matchup this week against the Bills though as they’ve given up the 6th fewest yards to receivers this season at 2,192, holding the Steelers receiver George Pickens to only 50 yards on his 11 targets during wild card weekend.
Luckily for the Chiefs, the Bills’ weakness in passing defense lies with one of their strengths. Due to the Bills’ injuries at linebacker - most recently with Terrel Bernard and Baylon Spector going down last week against the Steelers and not practicing yet this week - the Bills struggled against Pat Freiermuth, giving up 5 catches for 76 yards to the tight end. If that’s the weak point for the secondary for the Bills, there is little doubt that a tight end of Travis Kelce’s caliber will also be able to exploit it. Kelce led the Chiefs in receiving in the Week 14 matchup against the Bills, catching six passes for 84 yards in the loss, and even though this was the first season he was held under 1,000 receiving yards since 2015, he has still had a quality season and performed well in wild card weekend, catching seven passes for 71 yards, despite his three drops. If the Chiefs are going to win this game, Kelce is the matchup that they need to exploit in the weak part of the Bills secondary.
While the middle of their secondary is a bit shaky, the Bills' run defense is middle of the pack, ranking 15th in rush defense and allowing 4.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs (fifth most in the NFL). Coming off a game with 24 carries for 89 yards and a touchdown, Isiah Pacheco could be primed for a big day. He was inactive for the 20-17 loss to the Bills in week 14 and the Chiefs struggled to get the ground game working, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire being the leading rusher on 11 carries for 39 yards. With Pacheco’s solid rushing capabilities, the Chiefs offense can be more balanced and less predictable than they were when they lost to the Bills during the regular season and look more like the balanced offense we saw last week against Miami.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills offense has had a very hit-or-miss season, but since their bye week, they are one of the most dynamic offenses in football. Part of that comes from the hero ball playstyle of Josh Allen, who has looked amazing this season but has played turnover-prone football this season. While he leads the NFL in total touchdowns this season with 29 passing touchdowns and 15 rushing touchdowns, he also ranks with the second most interceptions in the NFL with 18, a career high. Luckily for the Bills, they saw a lot more incredible plays than poor decisions last week against the Steelers. In that game, he finished 21/30 with 203 passing yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions for a passer rating of 121.9. One of the biggest aspects of Josh Allen’s game though is his ability to run the ball, having eight carries for 74 yards and a rushing touchdown in last week’s game. This is good news for the Bills as Kansas City’s defense allowed the tenth most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, so expect Josh Allen to use his legs quite a bit in this matchup. This will be especially important considering Allen’s top receiver, Stefon Diggs, has a challenging matchup ahead of him. Diggs will run the majority of his routes lined up against Chiefs corner L’Jarius Sneed who just played an outstanding game against former Chief Tyreek Hill last week. Hill finished with five catches for 62 yards, but considering 53 of those yards came on one play, Sneed locked up Hill for the majority of the day. Sneed got the better of Diggs in their first matchup this season, holding the star receiver to only 4 catches for 24 yards on his 11 targets that day. Allen will likely have to throw the ball elsewhere.
This leads to his strong tight end duo of Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid. These two tight ends have complimented each other nicely in the Bills' offense in recent weeks, with Kincaid being a solid receiving option over the middle of the field and Knox being a strong red zone threat. Kincaid led the Bills in receiving last week against the Steelers with 3 catches for 59 yards while Knox has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games. While the Chiefs only allow the 9th fewest yards allowed to tight ends this season, this tight end duo will need to step up in a tougher matchup for the Bills to compensate for how strong Kansas City’s secondary has been out wide.
In the Week 14 matchup, Buffalo’s Chiefs killer was James Cook, rushing for 141 scrimmage yards on 15 touches and finishing the game with a receiving touchdown. He was extremely involved last week against the Steelers as well, finishing the day with 79 yards on 18 carries to go along with four receptions. Since Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator in Buffalo, James Cook has seen a dramatic increase in usage and has played a fundamental role in the offense, which should continue in the divisional round. The Chiefs defense’s weakest point is their run defense, ranking 14th fewest rushing yards allowed but allowing the seventh most yards per carry at 4.5. James Cook has the best matchup amongst the Bills’ skill position players and when he plays well, the team around him tends to play well also, so expect him to have a big game if the Bills win this game.
Two elite quarterbacks face off in a divisional round game. While both of these players have had career-highs in interceptions this season, both have shown incredible playmaking capabilities and poise in the biggest moments. While the Chiefs' defense has been outstanding this year and has made up for the offense’s shortcomings during the regular season, the Bills' offense has been so hot in recent weeks that it’s hard to believe that they can be slowed down. Josh Allen may throw an interception or two and Mahomes will be able to keep the game close down to the wire, but the Bills' offense has too many reliable weapons to shut down for an entire game and thus I believe that the Bills win a close game that comes down to the wire by a score of 30-24.
Green Bay Packers (7) @ San Francisco 49ers (1)
By Liv Pyrczak '27
The Green Bay Packers will meet the San Francisco 49ers in warm Santa Clara, California this Saturday to continue the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. The Packers are coming in as underdogs, with Vegas setting the spread at an astounding -9.5. The 49ers, the one seed in the NFC, are coming to the game off a bye week while the seven-seed Packers are coming off a dominant 16-point win against the two-seeded Dallas Cowboys. The Green Bay Packers are the first seventh seed to win in the Wild Card round since the seventh seed was introduced in 2020.
Looking at the Packers, they have been heating up since Week 9. In the final eight weeks of the season, the Packers went 6-2, including wins against strong teams such as the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions. Notably, the Packers are the youngest team in the NFL with an average age of only 25.1 years and many players, including quarterback Jordan Love, making their postseason debut last Sunday. Jordan Love had an impressive showing against the Cowboys, throwing for three touchdowns, 272 yards, and no interceptions. His adjusted quarterback rating for the game was a stunning 99.3. Over the past eight games, Love has averaged an impressive 79.0 quarterback rating, much higher than his average of 50.3 from the first ten games of the season. If Love’s performance continues, the Packers' passing game will keep the game competitive. While the 49ers secondary has improved dramatically since their bye week, it is still the weak spot on the team that the Packers have an opportunity to take advantage of. On the other side of the ball, the Packers’ defense leaves improvement to be desired. Despite the offense’s impressive performance against the Dallas Cowboys, the defense allowed Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott to throw for over 400 yards and let up 25 points in the second half. The Packers’ defense ranks 17th position overall, which may not be enough to contain the electric 49ers’ offense.
The 49ers have looked dominant all season. Offensively, the team is a major threat both passing and rushing. Quarterback Brock Purdy has played exceptionally this season and has the highest adjusted quarterback rating in the league, boasting a high 72.7, including the poor eight-point performance against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17. Purdy is not the only exceptional player on the 49ers offense. He is joined by first-time All-Pro tight end George Kittle and All-Pro running back Christain McCaffery. Both players lead the league in yards in their respective positions. McCaffery is poised to be especially threatening this game because of the Packers’ weak rushing defense, which has allowed the fifth most rushing yards in the league. Neither the 49ers’ rushing nor passing defense seems particularly special individually, however, looking at the defense as a whole, the 49ers have allowed the third-fewest points per game this season. Evaluating both the offense and defense, it is clear why the team has been successful this season and is projected to dominate this game.
I believe that this will be a high-scoring game for both teams. Love has had a great end to the season while the 49ers offense is packed with elite players. Ultimately, the Packers are set to be competitive for years to come, but all numbers point to the 49ers continuing their season in the NFC championship. My prediction for the 7-seed Divisional Round debut is as follows: 49ers win 27-17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4) @ Detroit Lions (3)
By Nico Luginbill '27
This Sunday, Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will head to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions in a highly anticipated matchup. The two teams have had very different seasons. The Lions had a great 5-1 start and have been fairly consistent since then, despite a worrisome loss to Chicago in December. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, started 4-7 and, had they not been in the dreadful NFC South, would have been completely written off as playoff contenders. However, the Bucs have won six of their past seven games and have looked stellar, with their defense holding opponents to an average of 15 points per game during that stretch (a stat that would be best in the league if it were all season). It’s important to note, though, that despite the Bucs’ recent surge, the Detroit offense has been consistently better than Tampa. Jared Goff ranked second in the NFL in passing yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown third in receiving yards, Sam LaPorta had a breakout rookie season, and the duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs added an impressive run game to the stellar passing game. For the Bucs, Mayfield and Mike Evans have been playing well, but they lack the same well-rounded offense that the Lions have.
These two teams played earlier in the season, though it was back in October, while the Bucs were still slumping. The Lions won in Tampa, 20-6, in a game where the Bucs offense never really found their footing. As usual, the Bucs' defense played well, holding the strong Detroit offense to a modest 20 points, but their offense simply could not capitalize on the opportunities provided to them. If Detroit can shut down the Tampa offense as they did in October, this playoff match will be an easy win.
Despite the Bucs' offense being fairly average on paper, Tampa’s electric offense in their last game against the Eagles shows that stopping them will be no easy task for the Lions. Tampa’s performance last week is probably the biggest concern for the Lions right now. There are two things, however, that make the Bucs’ blowout of the Eagles last week less of a concern. First, the Eagles defense has been dreadful, playing especially poorly in recent weeks. On top of that, the Eagles' offense was slumping, and it makes sense that the elite Tampa defense was able to stop any production from them. In that sense, Philadelphia was an ideal matchup for Tampa, and Detroit will be much harder for the Bucs to beat. Second, while the Bucs are 6-1 in their past seven games, it hasn’t always looked pretty. Their last two matches of the regular season—a loss to the Saints in which the Bucs couldn’t recover from a dreadful first half, and a possibly more concerning 9-0 win against the Panthers where the offense could not produce any big plays—do not inspire confidence.
In the end, I think that unless Tampa performs close to perfectly on both sides of the ball, the Lions should get the win. Tampa will have a much harder time in this game than they did in the wild card round, and their strong defense won’t be enough to hold Detroit back. The Lions should finally win consecutive playoff games for the first time ever in the Super Bowl era.