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Predicting the NFL Coach of the Year Winner

This year's NFL featured some incredible performances from teams that weren't expected to be great, or even very good, coming into the season. These teams were all led by incredible coaches, who, through their leadership and adaptability, were able to outperform expectations and guide their players to the playoffs with a chance for a deep run. The race for the Coach of the Year award appears tighter this season than in previous ones. Who will win? Some of our club members make the (analytical) case for some of the top candidates below.

Dan Campbell

By Dario Arazi '24

There is perhaps no team in the entire league that has witnessed a turnaround in recent years as dramatic as the Detroit Lions. The franchise's long, painful history as a basement dweller seemed like a lifelong curse that would never leave the Motor City in peace. But after decades of darkness, a phoenix has finally risen from the ashes at Ford Field, with one man and his legendary goatee at the helm. Daniel Allen Campbell, the kneecap-biting, caffeine-overloading, whistle-blowing gift from the heavens, has led nothing short of a cultural revolution in Detroit in recent years, with this year's campaign reaching peaks that had not been seen in decades. After a rocky first-year record of 3-13-1 in 2021, Campbell vowed to the fans, the media, and his players, to get it right. The following year, the team took a huge step forward, going 9-8 and recording a winning season for the first time since 2017. It is this year's explosion, however, that should land the Coach of the Year Award directly into his massive hands, as the 2023 team was unlike any Detroit has fielded in the prior fifty years.

Campbell’s Coach of the Year run began on opening night. A fake punt called in the second quarter on fourth and two from the Lions' own seventeen-yard line saw Jalen Reeves-Maybin lunge forward for three yards and the first down. While the drive fizzled out, this call sent shockwaves through the league. After electric plays like the fake punt carried the Lions to a 38-35 home opener victory over the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs, the league was put on notice. Fans, teams, and coaches around the world saw that these Lions were no ordinary Lions, and they certainly were not led by any ordinary coach. This game, the play, and the electric home atmosphere set the tone for the entire season, and the Lions never looked back.

With the help of superstar coordinators Ben Johnson (offense) and Aaron Glenn (defense), the Lions went 12-5, tying a thirty-year-old franchise record for most wins in a season (1991). If this wasn’t enough, Detroit notched a 4-2 divisional record on their way to an ever-so-elusive NFC North title, their first since 1993. Built on a core of veterans like Jared Goff and David Montgomery, along with an explosive young arsenal of talent including recent draft picks Jahmyr Gibbs (rookie), Sam LaPorta (rookie), Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and others, the 2023 Lions came together to end a league-leading thirty-year divisional title drought that was fourteen years longer than the second of its kind (Cleveland Browns).

This success did not stop with the conclusion of the regular season, and continued deep into the playoffs, with the Lions defeating the Los Angeles Rams, led by long-time Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford, 23-24 in the wildcard round for their first playoff victory since January 5, 1992. A second home playoff victory, 31-23 over the Buccaneers, sent Detroit to its first NFC Championship Game in franchise history. It was here, sadly, that the fairytale ended, with a blown seventeen-point lead allowing San Francisco to end the Lions' fairytale season in heartbreaking fashion, 31-34. Many blamed Campbell's signature aggressiveness for the loss, with two fourth downs resulting in turnovers on downs instead of field goal attempts and the Niners scoring touchdowns off both opportunities. To that, I say that the Lions wouldn’t have been in the NFC Championship Game, a place of fairy tales for so long to their fans if it wasn’t for this playcalling.

So why Campbell? Why not a rookie head coach like Demeco Ryans, or one that led a team to overcome insurmountable odds to the playoffs, like Kevin Stefanski? The answer: playoff success is the only true measure of a season's success. Ryans, Stefanski, and others did well, with Ryans even winning a playoff game with a rookie quarterback, but no other coach was more symbolic of a more successful team. While Ryans and Stefanski had long been eliminated, America watched the Lions get so close, so excruciatingly close, to making their first-ever Super Bowl. If the NFL awards committee wants a winner who took a team from the basement to the doorstep of greatness, shattering decades-old records left, right, and center, there is only one choice: Dan. Freaking. Campbell.

Sean McVay

By Charlie Betts '27

Sean McVay, the youngest head coach in modern NFL history and current head coach of the Rams, has demonstrated exceptional leadership and coaching prowess, making a strong case for why he should win the Coach of the Year award.

Under McVay's leadership, the Rams have experienced a remarkable turnaround, displaying significant improvement in their performance. Coming off a three-game losing streak, McVay used the Week 10 bye to his advantage, reevaluating the lineup and subsequently leading the team to three consecutive victories. This team was 3-6 at one point, having lost their No. 1 receiver, Cooper Kupp, to injury while having a defense without Jalen Ramsey for the first time this season, but McVay has led this team on the cusp of playoff contention through 12 games.

McVay has shown exceptional adaptability and flexibility in his coaching approach. He has effectively adjusted the team's strategies and game plans to accommodate for injuries, roster changes, and evolving opposition tactics, showcasing his astute tactical acumen. McVay has had to rely on unexpected players stepping up, from rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua to defensive back Cobie Durant and rookie outside linebacker Byron Young, to get this team in the playoff picture.

Sean McVay is widely recognized for his innovative offensive schemes and play-calling. His ability to create dynamic and effective offensive strategies has consistently put the Rams in a position to succeed, showcasing his coaching excellence. McVay's emphasis on player development has been instrumental in cultivating a winning culture within the team. Under McVay's guidance, the Rams have compiled a 60-38 record along with the 2022 Super Bowl win. The team's performance reflects McVay's exceptional coaching abilities and his impact on the overall success of the franchise.

Demeco Ryans

By Liv Pyrczak '27

Coming off a 2022 Assistant Coach of the Year win, Houston Texans Rookie Head Coach DeMeco Ryans is a strong contender for this year's honor. In his first season as Head Coach, he managed to lead the team to their first playoff appearance since 2020, a playoff win, the AFC South title, and an overall record of 11-8, accomplishing it all with rookie quarterback CJ Stroud. Ryans and Stroud are only the fifth rookie head coach-quarterback combo to make the playoffs, and the first ones to win their division. The last duo to make the playoffs were Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano in 2012. 

Ryans’ NFL career began when the Texans drafted him with the first pick in the second round of the 2006 draft. Because of his great success as a middle linebacker at the University of Alabama, he was thrust into the position during his rookie year. With the Texans, he earned a first-team All-Pro title and two Pro Bowl selections. In 2012, he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, where he played two successful seasons before a career-ending ACL tear in 2014. Ryans entered the world of coaching in 2017 with the San Francisco 49ers. There, he was hired as a defensive quality control coach. In 2018, he was promoted to inside linebackers coach from where he was promoted to defensive coordinator in 2021. He was hired by the Texans in January 2023. 

The 2023 season marks a great improvement for the Texans, who haven’t played a winning season since 2019. The franchise's start has been less than ideal, with only 6 playoff appearances and three wins since its establishment in 2002. It is the youngest franchise in the league, and since the team’s inception, the franchise has suffered from coaching struggles, devastating injuries, and controversy. Ryans is the third head coach hired in the past three offseasons. However, he has taken full advantage of this opportunity and brought the team to historical success. With Ryans, the franchise’s future is in great hands. 

Kevin Stefanski

By Sammy Ryan '26

After the end of last year, the Browns appeared to be in an awkward situation. After only going 4-7 with Jacoby Brissett as their quarterback last season and the awaited return of Deshaun Watson only yielding a 3-3 record, there was not a lot of optimism for this season. They weren’t expected to be a bad team, as they had been throughout much of their recent history, but they were expected to have around 8.5 wins this season, enough to have a chance to slide into the seventh seed with the right tiebreakers. However, they exceeded nearly all expectations this season, finishing at 11-6 and becoming one of the scariest teams entering the playoffs.

A large portion of the Browns’ success this season can be attributed to head coach Kevin Stefanski. As the offensive play-caller, he has led the Browns to score the tenth most points per game and have solid passing and rushing attacks, ranking 19th and 12th in yards, respectively. Their main strength, however, has been their defense, as Stefanski hired Jim Schwartz in the offseason and he turned a mediocre Browns defense into a top-tier unit, ranking first in the NFL in total yards allowed. With a balanced offense and a stellar defense, the Browns were able to win games, regardless of who was available to play. 

The biggest factor in Stefanski’s Coach of the Year case stems from his ability to persevere through the numerous injuries that plagued the Browns’ season. The most notable position that was weakened throughout the season was the quarterback position. The QB carousel of Deshaun Watson, P.J. Walker, Dorrian Thompson-Robinson, and Joe Flacco all contributed to an 11-5 record before the Browns rested their starters in the final game of the season. As a result, Stefanski became the first coach since 2015 to win games with at least four different quarterbacks within the same season. While they weren’t the most efficient with their starts, the game plan provided by Stefanski was enough to earn wins in tandem with the stout defense on the other end. It wasn’t even a matter of a weak strength of schedule either, as the Browns ranked to have the tenth strongest strength of schedule. On top of that, they were able to pull off some near-miracle wins with the patchwork quarterback position, including Walker’s 19-17 win over the 49ers, Watson’s 33-31 win over the Ravens, and Flacco’s 36-22 win over the surging Texans.

The Browns were also able to outlast other key injuries as well. They suffered seven season-ending injuries to players who had started at least three games for them on the season. That number does not include notable injuries that happened within the first couple of games of the season. One of the major injuries that they lost in their Week 1 matchup against the Bengals was their All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin, who was a pivotal component of Cleveland’s always-strong rushing attack. Speaking of the rushing attack, their perennial Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb went down with a brutal ACL tear in the subsequent matchup against the Steelers. The star back was having a great start to his season as well, already averaging 85 rushing yards per game through the game and a half that he played. In his place, Stefanski utilized a tandem backfield between Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt who provided serviceable replacements for Chubb, rushing for 813 and 411 rushing yards on the season respectively. Despite the numerous injuries the Browns faced, the team kept performing well and earning difficult wins against the odds. 

Overall, Stefanski led the Browns to a convincing playoff run, finishing 11-6 on the season and landing as a solid lock in the fifth seed in the AFC. Despite overwhelming injuries, despite a lackluster previous season, despite lackluster expectations before the season, and despite signing a quarterback in Joe Flacco who was 38 years old 12 weeks into the season, the Browns kept winning, and a large portion of that is Stefanski’s leadership skills and smart hires. With so many odds stacked against them, they finished the season with the same record as the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles, the two Super Bowl teams from last season. When faced with significant adversity, Stefanski was able to lead his team through it and have an incredible season, making him a perfect fit for the Coach of the Year.