Predicting the Major Awards for the Upcoming NBA Season

Introduction

The National Basketball Association (NBA) season is just around the corner, and Dartmouth Sports Analytics could not be more excited. Through extensive research, we have come up with some educated predictions for this season's awards. We have chosen to predict the winners of seven NBA awards: Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Sixth Man of the Year, Coach of the Year, and Executive of the Year. Will Nikola Jokic Win his fourth MVP in five years? Who out of this rookie class will emerge as a superstar? Can anyone stop Rudy Gobert from winning his fifth DPOY? Will we get any of our predictions right? Read along and find out.

Most Valuable Player - Joel Embiid

Elliott Gomes '28

For the past six years, no player not named Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, or Giannis Antetokounmpo has won the NBA’s MVP award. The three dominant big men have monopolized this award due to their game-breaking offensive production. But voter fatigue is a real thing. It is part of the reason why Antetokounmpo has not been in MVP conversations over the past few years to the same extent that Jokic and Embiid have. Jokic is coming fresh off of his third MVP, and winning another would give him the same total as LeBron James. Some people around the NBA do not feel that Jokic has done enough to deserve a fourth. Regardless of whether that argument is valid or not, the sentiments are still held. If Embiid stays healthy, he should tally up at least 30 points a game. With Tyrese Maxey continuing to develop and Paul George now providing additional spacing, defenses cannot concentrate on Embiid as much as they might like to. The already-unstoppable offensive force of Joel Embiid will face even less resistance on his path to the basket this year. Embiid might be in line for the best season of his career and possibly his second MVP trophy.

Defensive Player of the Year - Victor Wembanyama

Jack Zipper '28

It’s no surprise, but Victor Wembanyama is already the best defensive player in the league. His numbers arguably should have won him the DPOY last year over Rudy Gobert, leading the league in blocks with 254 [1]. The next best tally belonged to Chet Holmgren, who had 190. Wemby was also Top 25 in steals and had defensive box plus/minus good for second in the league behind Nikola Jokic [2] [3]. And to top it all off, he fouled three times less often than Gobert [4]. If he was on a better defensive team, Wemby would have easily won last year. His unique blend of overpowering interior defense, agile perimeter defense, and great defensive awareness and instincts makes him my obvious pick for this year’s DPOY. He does have some drawbacks: his 7 foot 4 inch frame makes him likely to pick up injuries that could cost him his eligibility to win the award, and the defense around him has to take a giant step up to avoid history repeating itself. Nevertheless, it’s his award to lose, and I’m confident that the Alien can put up extraterrestrial numbers to get it done.

Sixth Man of the Year - Donte DiVincenzo

Jack Zipper '28

DiVincenzo channeled the power of friendship to put up a career season. He shot 40% from beyond the arc en route to hitting 283 three-pointers, good for second best in the NBA [5]. Even crazier, he did it averaging only 29 minutes a game. What makes this pick even more enticing is that the T-wolves have no pure sharpshooter; their best three point shooter was Mike Conley who only made 2.4 a game [6]. Thus, DiVincenzo will be an asset even in a deep Timberwolves rotation. For example, DiVincenzo hit a dagger three to seal Game two of the first round against the Philadelphia 76ers. Expect to see DiVincenzo on the floor late as a valuable safety-valve for Anthony Edwards. If DiVincenzo can replicate what he did last year off the bench in Minnesota, the Big Ragu will be the Sixth Man of the Year.

Most Improved Player - Scoot Henderson

Elliott Gomes '28

Let’s face it. Scoot Henderson did not have the greatest rookie season last year. Although he was picked third overall, his performance left much to be desired. With all of that being said, Henderson finished the season much stronger than he started. He started the last 14 games he played in, averaging 18.9 points and 7.9 assists. Players often take a major leap during their sophomore seasons in the NBA as they have had time to adjust to NBA pace and rules. If Henderson is able to bump those late-season stats up into averaging a 20-point double-double, the award is his to lose. New teammate Deni Avdija should help Scoot convert more assists. Because Henderson is more experienced and skilled than he was at this time last year, he should be in line for a bigger role on the team and more opportunities to make his mark.

Rookie of the Year - Stephon Castle

Mary Sherrard '28

Stephon Castle will win rookie of the year for a number of reasons. There's a lot of great rookies this year like Reed Shepard and Dalton Knecht, but the difference between them and Stephon is the opportunity to play. Castle is playing for the San Antonio Spurs who are well known for creating great players like Victor Wembanyama who coincidentally won ROTY in 2023-2024. Working alongside Wembanyama gives Stephon an advantage over all other candidates. To add some statistics, Castle’s at +1000 to win ROTY: a 9% chance to win [7]. This is a good start, but once he gets playing time, it will be over for the other ROTY contenders. While the other candidates might have better odds of winning, they won't see nearly as much playing time as Stephon Castle.

Coach of the Year - Taylor Jenkins

Jack Zipper '28

If one thing defined the Memphis Grizzlies last season, it was injuries. They were by far the most injured team in the NBA, missing an NBA record 578 games due to injuries [8]. Thus, a team that finished with a 51-31 record in the 2022-23 campaign, good for the 2nd best record in the west, plummeted to 27-55 last year. However, Memphis has retained the key pieces– Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, and Desmond Bane–that made it a championship contender two years ago. Consequently, Jenkins and the Grizzlies are poised to leap right back up the standings and bring winning basketball back to the FedExForum. If Jenkins can guide this team back to contention, the Red Auerbach Trophy may be his come the end of the season.

Executive of the Year - Leon Rose

Jack Zipper '28

After years of collecting assets, the New York Knicks have finally gone all-in. They have completely transformed their roster to become true title contenders. The offseason trades for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns adds to a laundry list of shrewd moves that have lifted the Knicks out of the basement since he became president in March of 2020. These moves open up a championship window that Knicks fans haven’t seen since the 1990s. The Knicks are primed for a dominant regular season, and you can thank Leon Rose for that.