Skip to content

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Deploying Kyle Schwarber in the Leadoff Position

Published on 1 Comment on Evaluating the Effectiveness of Deploying Kyle Schwarber in the Leadoff Position

By Ari Nathanson '26

INTRODUCTION

Philadelphia Phillies’ left fielder Kyle Schwarber is your typical three-true-outcomes slugger: he hits for a low average, with thirty-plus home runs to go along with a surplus of walks and strikeouts. According to common practice, a player of this profile bats in the heart of the order, often in the four- or five-hole.[1] Yet, throughout his career, his managers, including the Phillies’ Rob Thomson, have opted to use him as a leadoff hitter. The trend of power hitters batting at the top of the order extends beyond just Schwarber—Aaron Judge hit leadoff 34 times en route to setting a new American League record for single-season home runs, and Mookie Betts led off for the 111-win Dodgers with a team-high 35 dingers.[2]

Schwarber, however, is unique among this group in that he does not bring elite speed or a high batting average, two qualities commonly associated with a leadoff man. His defining characteristic is his powerful bat, which would seemingly be better utilized further down in the order where it could drive in multiple runs at a time. On the surface, having Schwarber bat first is leaving these potential runs on the board, but both he and his team have found success with this unconventional strategy. One explanation is that he, for whatever reason, hits better from the leadoff position, a theory which Schwarber himself has suggested might be the case.[3] This paper will investigate whether or not there is statistically significant evidence supporting the hypothesis that Schwarber’s offensive production is stronger from the leadoff spot.

METHODS

To examine whether or not Schwarber is a better hitter from the leadoff position, I will look first at his production when batting first throughout the entire game, and then isolate solely when he is leading off the first inning. For each of these data sets, I will conduct hypothesis tests on two parameters: on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The null hypotheses are that his OBP and SLG are the same irrespective of position in the batting order; the alternative hypotheses are that his metrics are higher when batting leadoff. A one-proportion z-test will be used for OBP since it is the proportion of times on base per plate appearance. SLG can be thought of as the proportion of total bases per at-bat, in which case a one-proportion z-test is also appropriate. It is not possible to use simple hypothesis tests on more sophisticated measures of offensive production such as wOBA and wRC+ because they are neither proportions nor means, but rather more complicated parameters. It is also difficult to test OPS because its components (OBP and SLG) have different denominators (PA and AB, respectively). However, if we test OBP and SLG separately and look at the results together, we will get a holistic picture of Schwarber as a hitter. These two statistics reflect differences between a prototypical leadoff hitter, who has a high OBP, and a classic heart of the order bat, who excels in SLG. Data will be taken from the past two MLB regular seasons (comprising his stints on the Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, and Phillies), the span during which Schwarber has spent significant time batting at the top of the order. All data are collected from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.[4], [5]

RESULTS

Below are Schwarber’s relevant counting statistics (irrespective of position in the batting order) over the past two MLB seasons:

These numbers are used to calculate OBP, 1B%, 2B%, 3B%, HR%, and SLG over this same time period:

Then, the same process generates Schwarber’s percentages when batting leadoff:

Finally, this process is used to obtain Schwarber’s percentages when leading off the first inning:

This data gives the result that Schwarber’s OBP has been lower as a leadoff batter than overall. Thus, going through the procedure of a hypothesis test is not necessary; there is not sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis that Schwarber hits for equal OBP when batting leadoff and elsewhere. Schwarber’s slugging percentages, however, are higher when batting first and even higher when leading off the first inning. I will conduct hypothesis tests to see whether these results are statistically significant. (A p-value of 0.05 is the threshold for significant results.)

First, consider all 577 of Schwarber’s at-bats from the leadoff position over the 2021-22 regular seasons, from which he compiled 325 total bases (Table 3). His overall slugging percentage gives an expected value of (577)(.525) = 302.925 total bases (Table 2).

The conditions for inference are met, as shown below. (It is important here to note that the “population” of interest is the infinite number of leadoff at-bats Schwarber could take, not the finite number he has taken over the past two seasons. The question of interest is not whether he has been a better leadoff hitter, but whether he truly is one in the long run.)

  1. Randomization: Assume that the 577 at-bats Schwarber has taken from the one-hole over the past two seasons are a representative sample.
  2. There are at least 10 expected “successes” (577 x .525 = 302.925 > 10) and 10 expected “failures” (577 x .475 = 274.075 > 10).
  3. The sample size, 577, is less than 10% of the infinite number of leadoff at-bats Schwarber could take.

An applet is used to simulate 200,000 samples of Schwarber’s 577 at-bats according to the null hypothesis of .525 bases per at-bat.[6] The p-value is the proportion of samples resulting in at least 325 total bases. Below is a graph of the results:

The p-value is 0.0362. At a significance level of 0.05, this p-value is sufficiently small to reject the null hypothesis. That is, there is sufficient evidence to conclude that Schwarber hits for a higher slugging percentage from the leadoff position.

Now, consider only Schwarber’s 137 at-bats leading off the first inning. He had 90 total bases over the past two seasons (Table 5), compared to an expected value of (137)(.525) = 71.925.

The conditions for inference are met, as shown below:

  1. Randomization: Assume that the 137 at-bats Schwarber has taken leading off the first inning over the past two seasons are a representative sample.
  2. There are at least 10 expected “successes” (137 x .525 = 71.925 > 10) and 10 expected “failures” (137 x .475 = 65.075 > 10).
  3. The sample size, 137, is less than 10% of the infinite number of leadoff at-bats Schwarber could take.

An applet is used to simulate 100,000 samples of Schwarber’s 137 at-bats according to the null hypothesis of .525 bases per at-bat.[6] The p-value is the proportion of samples resulting in at least 90 total bases. Below is a graph of the results:

The p-value is 0.0013. At a significance level of 0.05, this p-value is sufficiently small to reject the null hypothesis. That is, there is sufficient evidence to conclude that Schwarber hits for a higher slugging percentage when leading off the first inning.

DISCUSSION

Hypothesis testing showed no significant evidence that Schwarber gets on base at a higher clip from the leadoff position, but that he does perform better in the slugging department. These two metrics—although not perfect—roughly encapsulate the two most important traits a hitter in today’s game can possess: the propensity to reach base and the capacity to hit for power. It would seem that hitting leadoff gives Schwarber a boost in the latter department, but not the former. There are several plausible reasons for this. Perhaps the adrenaline from starting the game gives Schwarber’s swing extra juice. Another possibility is that pitchers tend to throw fastballs early in the game while transitioning to breaking balls and offspeed pitches later. Each of the leadoff hitter’s plate appearances in a game comes before those of the other eight members of the lineup; thus, the leadoff hitter is likely to see more fastballs on average. Schwarber has always been a fastball hitter—he has hit for an OPS of at least .900 against four-seamers in every season since 2018.

This study has some shortcomings—it relies on a limited sample size of Schwarber’s at-bats, especially of those leading off the first inning. I restricted my data collection to the past two years (when he has been an everyday leadoff batter) to account for the possibility of him not performing as well at leadoff when he did so only sporadically. While OBP and SLG are good indicators of offensive production, they are not perfect, and they are more subject to the statistical noise of baseball’s limited sample sizes than are more advanced metrics like wRC+ and Statcast data. In addition, the results of this study should not be extrapolated beyond Schwarber; perhaps a “magical” leadoff boost in OBP does exist for other players, and maybe the SLG increase is unique to Schwarber.

Importantly, there are other factors to consider that cause me to stop short of making a judgment on whether Schwarber should be a leadoff hitter. For instance, there are skills a leadoff hitter can chip in without his bat that benefit his team. One example is stolen bases, which Schwarber contributes in modest doses (he had 10 in 2022). Another responsibility of the leadoff hitter is to work the count and get the opposing pitcher to expose his arsenal as much as possible. In an interview earlier this year, Schwarber himself explained, “If I can go up there and I can work that pitcher, try to get all of his pitches out of the way, and let these guys see it behind me, that’s only a positive thing.”[3] Indeed, in 2022, Schwarber was second in baseball with 4.31 pitches seen per plate appearance (behind Max Muncy). Future research could be done into the correlation between number of pitches seen by the leadoff hitter in his first at-bat and run production (both over the course of the entire game and in the first inning alone). Furthermore, while Schwarber does not conform to the traditional mold of a leadoff hitter, it remains to be seen whether this ideal holds up sabermetrically. One argument that has been made is that teams should put their all-around best hitter in the one-hole to give him the greatest number of at-bats per game.[7] Several additional theories of lineup construction have developed over the years and have been successfully employed at the major league level. Which is the best? This is obviously a very complicated question that would require extensive research to answer.

CONCLUSION

What I can conclusively say now is that Schwarber hits for more power by virtue of batting first, but there is no reason to believe that he gets on base more often. Power is certainly a valuable skill for any hitter to possess, but it results in more runs when there are already men on base. Hitting leadoff makes this less likely overall, and outright impossible at the start of the first inning. It is true that the Phillies have been successful with Schwarber in the leadoff position, making it to the World Series in 2022. Whether this is despite or because of their atypical lineup construction is unclear. Nevertheless, with a much more conventional leadoff hitter in the form of Trea Turner joining the team in 2023, Rob Thomson and the Phillies will have to seriously consider where in their formidable lineup Kyle Schwarber is best utilized.

References

  1. Potts, R. (2022, May 31). The Mathematically Optimal Batting Order. Overtime Heroics. Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://www.overtimeheroics.net/2022/05/31/the-mathematically-optimal-batting-order/
  2. Mount, J. (2022, October 19). MLB: Does it make sense for power hitters to lead off? Call to the Pen. Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://calltothepen.com/2022/10/19/mlb-power-hitters-lead-off/
  3. Schwarber explains his mindset on being a leadoff hitter. (2022, July 5). NBC Sports. Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/video/kyle-schwarber-explains-his-mindset-being-leadoff-hitter
  4. Kyle Schwarber. (n.d.). FanGraphs. Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-schwarber/16478/stats?position=OF
  5. Kyle Schwarber Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More. (n.d.). Baseball-Reference.com. Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schwaky01.shtml
  6. Applet for simulation and theory-based analysis of one binary variable. (2022, August 12). RossmanChance. Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/2021/oneprop/OneProp.htm
  7. Davis, K. (2018, May 2). Where Should The Best Hitter Bat In The Lineup? Wolf Sports. Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://wolfsports.com/mlb/where-should-the-best-hitter-bat-in-the-lineup/

1 thought on “Evaluating the Effectiveness of Deploying Kyle Schwarber in the Leadoff Position”

  1. Pingback: Kyle Schwarber Was Not Meant To Bat Leadoff - Philadelphia Sports Nation

Comments are closed.