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Author: Dartmouth Sports Analytics

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By William Parocai '27

It’s that time of year once again. The quest for Lord Stanley kicked off this past Saturday with the St. Louis Blues (WC2) suffering a 5-3 defeat at the hands of President’s Trophy winning Winnipeg Jets (C1). I’m going to break down all of the Western Conference first round matchups complete with strengths, weaknesses and X-factors for each team.

Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues

Regular Season Series: Winnipeg 3-1

Winnipeg Jets (C1)

The Winnipeg Jets are coming off of a historic regular season showing which saw them lift the President’s Trophy for the first time in franchise history. Their impressive record of 56-22-4 shows that this team knows how to win games. The Jets boast strong veteran forwards like Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor who is coming into the playoffs following a career high 97 point regular season. Additionally, the Jets also come into this matchup with the same stout defense and exceptional goaltending that allowed them to hold opponents to only 2.33 goals per game. They come into the playoffs hot with a 7-3-0 record in their last 10 games.  

Weaknesses

Despite their strengths, Winnipeg has not established themselves as a strong playoff performer over the last few seasons. Last season despite putting up an impressive 52-24-6 record they bowed out of the playoffs in just 5 games to the Colorado Avalanche. Furthermore, a week-to-week injury to top forward Nikolaj Ehlers poses additional concerns for the Jets if they are to make a deep playoff run. While this season feels different the Jets simply haven’t performed well during the playoffs, only making it out of the first round once since the 2019-2020 season. 

X-Factor

Goaltending is the X-factor for the Jets. Connor Hellebuyck has been lights out this season posting an incredible 47 wins (8 Shutouts) on .925 Sv% and 2.00 GAA. These stats have allowed the Jets to dominate the NHL and made Hellebuyck the frontrunner for the Vezina Trophy. While playoff consistency has been a thorn in Hellebuyck’s side, this season feels different.

St. Louis Blues (WC2)

The St. Louis Blues have had a rollercoaster of a season and looked to be out of the playoffs before a late push that saw them win 12 straight games. Their record of 44-30-8, while not particularly impressive, allowed them to clinch the final wild card spot in the Western Conference. The Blues have players such as Jake Neighbours and Philip Broberg who have put up career high point totals this season. These breakout players along with reliable backstop Jordan Binnington have allowed the Blues to reach the playoffs for the first time since the 2021-2022 season. The Blues have continued their winning ways through the back half of the season coming into the playoffs with a 7-2-1 record in their last 10 games.

Weaknesses

The Blues come into the playoffs with a lot of questions. This team is young and inexperienced unlike their opponent. While the Blues are coming in hot they likely simply do not have the depth or talent to keep up with the league leading Jets. While Binnington has been incredible in goal and has prior playoff experience, I do not think the Blues will be able to contain the firepower of the Jets.

X-Factor

The Blues X-factor is consistency and streakiness. The Blues have shown that they can go on a heater and win games. If they want to overpower the Jets in this matchup they’re going to need to continue that late season magic that allowed them to make the playoffs.

Prediction time

I think the firepower of the Jets will be far too much for St. Louis to handle. The Jets have a dynamic offense, stout defense and lights out goaltending. While I think St. Louis will steal a game with a Binnington masterclass I’m taking the Jets in 5.

Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche

Regular Season Series: Colorado 2-1

Dallas Stars (C2)

The Dallas Stars are coming into the playoffs as dangerous as ever, the Stars have made the playoffs several years in a row including back to back Western Conference Finals appearances and a Cup Final appearance in 2020. This team is well rounded and boasts strong veteran players such as Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene and the returning Tyler Seguin. Dallas has a strong defense led by exceptional penalty killer Esa Lindell and young breakout player Thomas Harley. Starting goalie Jake Oettinger is solid in net and only adds to the already formidable defense of the Dallas Stars. Furthermore, Dallas acquired star forward Mikko Rantanen from the Carolina Hurricanes on March 7th. Rantanen is a highly skilled forward that adds depth to the Stars lineup and will certainly add both playoff experience and a scoring touch to the Stars already loaded lineup.

Weaknesses

The Stars have shown that they can perform in the playoffs. However their opponent is one of the most skilled teams in the league. Dallas must utilize its depth to fill a hole left by young star forward Jason Robertson’s week-to-week lower-body injury. This untimely injury and the skill of the opposition Avalanche could cause issues for the Stars in this matchup.

X-Factor

The X-factor for the Stars is their special teams. Dallas has boasted some of the best power play and penalty kill numbers in the league and for the Stars to go into the deeper rounds this year they need their special teams to continue clicking like they were in the regular season. Capitalizing on those power plays and shutting down opposition chances with their elite penalty killing will allow the Stars to control the game and turn it in their favor.

Colorado Avalanche (C3)

The Colorado Avalanche are coming into the playoffs as the third team from the loaded central division. This team has playoff experience and two of the best players in the league in star center Nathan MacKinnon and top defenseman Cale Makar. The Avalanche have a solid well rounded team with a lot of highly skilled players. The addition of Martin Necas and Jack Drury in a blockbuster move with Carolina allowed the Avalanche to retool and add depth to their offense. Furthermore, Colorado is also seeing the return of veteran Gabriel Landeskog who has not played an NHL game since the 2020-2021 season due to a serious knee injury.

Weaknesses

Despite the Avalanche having a high power offense that scores a lot of goals they also have given up quite a few goals. The Avalanche have seen a goaltender carousel this season but have seemed to find their starter in Mackenzie Blackwood. While Blackwood has been quite good since coming over from the San Jose Sharks, he lacks playoff experience. Additionally, backup goalie Scott Wedgewood has only 3 games of NHL playoff experience with 0 wins in those games. These goaltending issues could cause issues for the Avalanche as they try to contend with the firepower of the Dallas Stars in this first round matchup.

X-Factor

The X-factor for the Avalanche has to be star defenseman Cale Makar. Makar is an elite defenseman that controls the game with his agility and passing. His skating ability allows him to create plays from the point and find open teammates. Makar is a lethal shooter, he led all NHL defensemen posting an insane 30 goals during the regular season. This offensive ability along with his shutdown defensive ability will create problems for the Stars as they look to shut down this top talent.

Prediction time

We have ourselves a matchup right here. Two high powered offenses and solid defense on the backend for both of these teams should make this series a close one. Despite their star power I think that the depth and goaltending of the Dallas Stars will give them the edge in this one I’m taking Dallas in 6.

Vegas Golden Knights  vs. Minnesota Wild

Regular Season Series: Vegas 3-0

Vegas Golden Knights (P1)

The Vegas Golden Knights are back. Posting an impressive 50-22-10 record Vegas has stormed into the playoffs as the top seed in the Pacific. Led by star center Jack Eichel and breakout player Pavel Dorofeyev, Vegas has been shown to be a formidable opponent all season. Adin Hill has become a primary starter in goal and flourished in his new role putting up a solid .906 Sv% and impressive 2.47 GAA. The Golden Knights plan to bring that success into the playoffs as they look to improve upon their first round exit to the Stars last season. Great team chemistry, a top powerplay and depth scoring have allowed this team to top the Pacific division.

Weaknesses

Despite a good season, Vegas has struggled with some injury issues, particularly with forwards Mark Stone and Tomas Hertl. In order for Vegas to go deep into the playoffs they need these two to stay healthy and perform at the top of their level. Additionally, The Golden Knights have a lackluster penalty kill percentage of 75.7%. This could cause issues for the Golden Knights if they find themselves down a man at critical times.

X-Factor

The X-factor for Vegas has to be the power play, Vegas boasts the second best power play in the NHL and they have a team focused power play that relies on everyone playing their part. Vegas utilizes their skilled centers and defenseman Shea Theodore to create options and offense from both the blueline and behind the goal. Passing is key here as Vegas dominates power play possession and creates multi-chance opportunities on offense leading to goals.

Minnesota Wild (WC1)

The Minnesota Wild have made their return to the playoffs after a one year hiatus. Despite star forward Kirill Kaprizov suffering an injury earlier in the season, the Wild retooled and clinched a playoff berth. With Kaprizov returning, it only enhances Minnesota’s chances to achieve the upset and go deep into the playoffs. Solid forwards such as Matt Boldy and Kirill Kaprizov pose a serious scoring threat that Vegas will have to counter. Additionally, veteran defensemen like Jonas Brodin and veteran goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury could allow the Wild to exorcise those first round demons and reach the second round for the first time since 2015. 

Weaknesses

Despite the promise of Kaprizov’s return, the Wild still have glaring production and special teams issues. Their penalty kill percentage of 72.4% is among the worst in the league and when put up against a high octane power play like Vegas has it could be a major problem for the Wild. This weak PK% combined with the dearth of scoring the Wild have seen could see them sent home early this year. 

X-Factor

The X-factor for the Wild is none other than Kirill Kaprizov. The 27 year old put up 56 points in 41 games played before injuries sidelined him for half of the season. As a crafty forward, Kaprizov opens space and creates offense with his shooting and passing ability. His play creation before his injury was the main driver of Minnesota’s offense. Despite his injury, the Wild were able to pick up the slack and make the playoffs but his performance will be paramount to the success of the Wild in this tough first round matchup.

Prediction time

The Vegas Golden Knights are one tough team. I don’t think the Wild can reach that kind of level even with Kaprizov coming back from injury. Vegas looks like a well-oiled machine and the Wild look like a team that can win a game or two. Marc-Andre Fleury steals one but Vegas in 5.

Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers

Regular Season Series: Los Angeles 3-1

Los Angeles Kings (P2)

The Los Angeles Kings come into the playoffs after a great regular season campaign. The Kings, the best home team in the league, have stymied opponents with tough defense, great goaltending and strong shot blocking. Goaltender Darcy Kuemper has had an incredible bounce-back season after putting up lackluster numbers with the Capitals last year. They say that defense wins championships and by that metric it's safe to say the Kings have a shot. Veterans Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar have led their team to be one of the best in the league in team defense.

Weaknesses

Despite their success at home, the Kings have struggled on the road with a 17-19-5 record through the regular season. To succeed in the playoffs you have to show that you can win on the road. Additionally, despite their lockdown defense their goal production has struggled at times helped none by their paltry power play which ranks 27th in the NHL at a low 17.9%. These factors along with the fact that scoring drops off a bit in the playoffs may be a source of concern for the Kings.

X-Factor

The X-factor for Los Angeles has to be defense, specifically team defense. The defense of the Kings is why they’re as good as they are. Los Angeles clogs shooting lanes and frustrates opposition forwards by blocking shots and taking away passing lanes. This can also create counter attacks and odd-man rushes going the other way leading to high danger chances. Taking away lanes to the net and passing options is going to be critical to stopping the deftly skilled forwards Edmonton has at their disposal. If this team can find ways to shut down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl they can shut down anyone on their way to the cup.

Edmonton Oilers (P3)

The Edmonton Oilers have two of the best forwards in the league with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl this alone makes them a threat to anyone in the playoffs. In addition to McDavid and Draisaitl, the Oilers also have defensemen that can control the play of the game and shut down opposition attackers. The Oilers are a lethal team that has shown resolve in adjusting despite injuries throughout the season.

Weaknesses

The Oilers have 2 major questions in their goaltending and injuries, despite the team having good defensive metrics. The goaltending of starter Stuart Skinner has been mediocre at best. Skinner put up career worst numbers with a .896 Sv% and a 2.81 GAA. The disconnect between the defense and goaltending for the Oilers is a problem that must be addressed if the Oilers want to go deep into the playoffs. Injuries have also plagued the Oilers. Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Jake Walman are listed as out with day-to-day injuries that could jeopardize team performance. Furthermore, Mattias Ekholm has been ruled out until at least the second round forcing Edmonton to rely more on players that have less playoff experience.

X-Factor

The X-factor for the Oilers is star center Connor McDavid this should be no surprise to anyone the forward is widely acknowledged as the NHL’s best player and for good reason. McDavid is a highly skilled center capable of creating offense from multiple places on the ice. Whether through in the neutral zone or in the offensive zone McDavid facilitates the Oilers offense through space creation and passing allowing him and his teammates to create high danger chances and find goal scoring opportunities.

Prediction time

We have the Oilers and Kings facing off in round one for the fourth year stright. High powered offense vs. elite shutdown defense: what could be better than that! The Oilers have shown resolve despite numerous injuries but the Kings defense looks like a cement wall. Goaltending is a factor here and not in Edmonton’s favor. While the Oilers will stretch this one out with their superstars, they say defense wins championships so I’m taking the Kings in 7.

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The 2025 NBA regular season ended with a bang and the excitement is not even close to over. Members of Dartmouth Sports Analytics got together and predicted the results of the NBA play-in. Will all go as expected with Steph Curry's Warriors and Paolo Banchero's Magic punching their ticket to the dance? Or will a sleeper team pull off the upset and keep their playoff hopes alive? Read more to find out.

Eastern Conference Predictions

#7 Orlando Magic vs. #8 Atlanta Hawks

By Benjamin Ross '28

The Magic (41–41) enter the matchup as 5-point favorites and have been strong at home, boasting a 20–8 record as home favorites this season. Led by Paolo Banchero, who averages 25.9 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, and Franz Wagner, contributing 24.1 points and 4.7 assists per game, Orlando has won nine of its last 12 games to finish the regular season at .500. 

The Hawks (40–42) are making their fourth consecutive Play-In appearance. Despite an inconsistent season, Atlanta has shown resilience, closing the regular season with three straight wins. Trae Young continues to lead the team, averaging 24.2 points and an NBA-best 11.4 assists per game. Rookie Zaccharie Risacher, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, has also been a key contributor, averaging 12.6 points per game.  

With the Magic on a roll, they will certainly be tough to beat. 

Prediction: Orlando Magic

#9 Chicago Bulls vs. #10 Miami Heat

By Mary Sherrard '28

Three times this Season, the Miami Heat have played the Chicago Bulls. Every time, the Heat have lost. Once on February 4th by a score of 124 to 133. Then on March 8th, by a score of 109 to 114. And finally, the most recent game on April 9th by a score of 111 to 119. Miami has lost every time, so why would this time be any different? Well, Jimmy Butler was traded on February 5th to the Warriors in a five-team deal with the Heat. While this doesn’t necessarily point to why the Heat have lost against the Bulls in their first game of the season, it may point to the second and third game losses. Jimmy Butler was an all-around versatile player and losing him hurts. I believe that Jimmy Butler was the glue that held this team together, and therefore why I believe the Chicago Bulls will win again against the Miami Heat.

Prediction: Chicago Bulls

#8 Atlanta Hawks vs. #9 Chicago Bulls

By Mary Sherrard '28

Overall, the Atlanta Hawks have more wins this season at 40-42 compared to the Chicago Bulls at 39-43. This might suggest that the Hawks are more likely to float into the 8th seed on the eastern side of the NBA Bracket. However, I believe the Bulls will pull through in a close game against the Hawks for two reasons. First, Coby White averages 20 points per game as a point/shooting guard. If the Hawks are to have any chance of getting any further this season, it will be with Colby White. Second, the Bulls have amazing defense. In fact, they have the sixth-best defense in the NBA, according to Mark Deeks, a sportswriter for Forbes. So for these reasons, I think the Chicago Bulls will be the 8th seed for the Eastern side of the NBA Bracket.

Prediction: Chicago Bulls
 

Western Conference Predictions

#7 Golden State Warriors vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies

By Jack Zipper '28

The Memphis Grizzlies and the Golden State Warriors are disappointed to be in the play-in.  Both teams had a chance to clinch the six seed but dropped two of their last three games to lose out to the Minnesota Timberwolves for the coveted spot.  A win sets up a matchup against the Houston Rockets.  A loss means they would have another game for the privilege to play against the Oklahoma City Thunder, a scary proposition given the Thunder’s 68-win season.   

The Warriors, despite their late season cooler, are red hot. Golden State, who sat a lowly 10th in the West, acquired Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline to reinvigorate their franchise.  They won 14 out of their next 16, catapulting themselves back into the playoff conversation.  Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry are making the case for the best duo in the league as the Warriors are 22-5 when the pair is playing.  Steph averages 27.2 points per game when Butler is on the floor—almost 3 points per game higher than his season average.  Draymond Green has also been a major contributor; the odds-on-favorite to win the DPOY award has led the team in rebounds, steals, and blocks.  Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, and Buddy Hield have been double-figure scorers for the team while 2nd round pick Quinten Post has blossomed into an efficient role player.  The Dutchman has averaged just over 8 points on 16 minutes a game after debuting in January.  

The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are in disarray.  Sitting 36-18 at the midseason mark, good for the 2nd seed in Western Conference, a sluggish second half of the year plummeted them down the standings.  Head coach Taylor Jenkins was fired, and interim coach Tuomas Lisalo was unsuccessful in righting the ship as the Grizzlies won just twelve games in the second half of the season to finish with the 8th best record in the west.  Nevertheless, this team is oozing with talent.  Ja Morant, after missing most of last season due to suspension and injury, has come back to lead the Grizzlies in points and assists, finishing top 10 in assists per game (given at least 50 games played).  However, he recorded his lowest shooting efficiency since his sophomore season in 2020–21, shooting only 45.4% from the field.  Key players Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr, along with a host of other role players, make Memphis primed for a deep playoff run.  However, it remains to be seen whether they can shake off their abysmal second half of the season and show up against Golden State at the Chase Center. 

While the Grizzlies may have the edge in depth, all of the signs point to a Warriors win.  Jimmy Butler is a playoff monster, leading his former team, the Miami Heat, to two NBA Finals appearances.  His 2023 run to the finals started in the play-in, where Butler dropped 31 points in a 102-91 win against the Chicago Bulls to clinch the eighth seed.  The Warriors are running hot and can take advantage of a reeling Grizzlies team to earn a favorable matchup against an inexperienced Rockets team.  The Warriors, who are 0-3 in the play-in tournament, will look to Butler and Curry to cast off their play-in demons and jumpstart a deep playoff run. 

Prediction: Golden State Warriors

#9 Sacramento Kings vs. #10 Dallas Mavericks

By Elliott Gomes '28

The Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks were both active at the trade deadline. The Kings traded away star point guard De’Aaron Fox but acquired Jonas Valanciunas and Zach LaVine. The Mavericks notably traded away the player that fueled their playoff run the previous season, Luka Doncic, in return for Anthony Davis. These two teams look very different than they did at the start of the season, and they face off on Wednesday, April 16.

The Kings have a number of advantages going into the play-in game. For starters, they are the hosts. They won’t have to deal with complications from flights or hostile fans. Another area they have an edge is health. The best ability is availability, and right now, the Kings have a lot more healthy players than the Mavericks. The Mavericks’ best player, Kyrie Irving, is out for the season, and key contributors like Klay Thompson, Anthony Davis, and Dereck Lively II are all questionable for the game after missing time. 

Neither team, however, is without fault—that’s why they’re both in the play-in. The Kings have a negative box plus-minus when LaVine and star guard Demar DeRozan are both on the court. They will miss the presence of Malik Monk on Wednesday, and they rank 23rd in the NBA in three-pointers made. It’s hard for a team to win if they can’t shoot in the modern NBA. But Dallas is not much better. They will have to rely on Anthony Davis for offense with Irving out, and AD has barely managed to average 20 points per game on the Mavericks. He has also historically struggled against Domantas Sabonis. Davis would need to buck both trends for the Mavericks to have any chance at winning.

Prediction: Sacramento Kings

#8 Memphis Grizzlies vs. #9 Sacramento Kings

By Elliott Gomes '28

The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings are not strangers to contention. The Grizzlies finished second in the Western Conference in both 2021–22 and 2022–23 before an injury-riddled 2023–24 campaign. The Kings finished third, right behind the Grizzlies, in 2022–23. This year may not have been as successful as either team may have hoped, but the two teams should be able to fight over the last playoff spot.

The Memphis Grizzlies started the season hot, but they’re under .500 since the All-Star break. Although Desmond Bane is having a good season, their best player Ja Morant is not. With that being said, Morant is the most talented player on either team, and he is still liable to take over any game. With the loss of De’Aaron Fox, the Kings will have trouble keeping up with his raw athleticism. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a former Defensive Player of the Year who can help contain the Kings’ Domantas Sabonis. The Grizzlies, as a team, stack up well against the Kings.

The Kings have talent—DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine both average over 20 points per game, and Sabonis is always a player to take note of—but they have not put it together. LaVine, interestingly, has a negative box plus/minus for the Kings on the season. The Kings are just under .500 on the season, and they don’t seem to have figured out how to use the talent on their roster. This play-in game should be no different.

Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies

So there you have it. The panel of DSA experts have predicted the Magic, Bulls, Warriors, and Grizzlies to advance out of the play-in tournament and into the playoffs. This postseason certainly promises to be entertaining and we cannot way to see how everything unfolds. Stay tuned for more DSA posts and predictions.




 

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By Dean Lowery '27

When Rory McIlroy slipped on the green jacket this Sunday, he realized a goal that he had been chasing for eleven years. He became the sixth golfer to complete the career grand slam, joining Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus, and Tiger Woods. McIlroy, in doing so, becomes the first European golfer to accomplish this feat. The slam has not been accomplished since Tiger Woods hoisted the Claret Jug in 2000 at The Old Course at St. Andrews to complete his slam.

To put this into perspective, the Masters Tournament (or known more simply as The Masters) was founded in 1934. The tournament is played each year at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia. Augusta National was founded in 1933 by Bobby Jones, the game’s most accomplished amateur golfer, and Clifford Roberts, a renowned investment banker before the Great Depression. The golf course was designed by Jones and Dr. Alister McKensie, the latter of whom never lived to see the course's completion. The course was built on the property of an acquired plant nursery. 

The nines were reversed before the playing of the 1935 Masters, to allow more time for lower elevated areas of the course to defrost during winter play. The course is famous for its alterations, and has evolved to match the changes in golf equipment which have taken place over the last century. Each of the eighteen holes has a name, and each is named after a plant found on the grounds. Perhaps the most famous hole at the Augusta National is the par-three 12th, “Golden Bell”, measuring a mere 155 yards. This hole has sunk the dreams of several seemingly-to-be-destined champions, including Greg Norman in ‘96, Jordan Spieth in ‘16, and Francesco Molinari in ‘19. Rae’s Creek protects the putting surface short, and tends to swallow golf balls left and right late on Masters’ Sundays. 

Much of the allure of the Masters comes from the prestige of the club and the immaculate design of the course for tournament golf. Augusta National is one of the most exclusive clubs in the world, providing each of its members with a green jacket upon membership. The Masters and the Augusta National have gained a tremendous amount of respect from fans and players alike for their protection of tradition and integrity. Concessions at the tournament have never changed prices. Parking is complimentary. The television coverage has limited commercial interruptions. Commentators refer to the fans as “patrons”. Terms like “tournament practice facility” and “second nine” replace commonplace verbiage.

Additionally, the drama of the tournament, and especially of winning one’s first Masters title adds to the draw of the event. Memorable tournaments such as ‘80 (S. Ballesteros), ‘97 (T. Woods), ‘04 (P. Mickelson), ‘15 (J. Spieth) and now ‘25 (R. McIlroy) cemented some of the game’s best as legends at Augusta.  

McIlroy hails from Holywood, Northern Ireland, and claims to have been inspired to play golf by that ‘97 Masters, where Tiger Woods dazzled the field, winning by a record 12 strokes, and finishing with 70-66-65-69 = 270 (-18), also a tournament record. Woods’ performance is often considered one of the greatest in the history of major championship play. 

McIlroy made his first Masters appearance in 2009, finishing in a tie for 20th. McIlroy then held a four stroke lead heading into the final round, only to squander it with a triple bogey 7 on the 10th, and then a double bogey 5 on the 12th, finishing with an abysmal 80. McIlroy rebounded to win the ‘11 U.S. Open by 8 strokes at Congressional two months later, going on to win four major championships within the next four years. However, since 2014, The Masters has been the only item missing on McIlroy’s resume. 

After winning The Players Championship in March, McIlroy entered this week as one of the favorites to win. McIlroy came out hot on Thursday, recording 4 birdies by the time he reached the par five 15th. After playing long in two, McIlroy chipped back onto the putting surface only to lose control, allowing his ball to end up in the bottom of the lake guarding the front of the green. McIlroy was forced to drop on the other side for his fifth shot, recording a double bogey 7. McIlory recorded another double bogey on the par four 17th, coming in with an even par 72, setting him seven adrift of first round leader Justin Rose. 

McIlroy then recovered brilliantly from his errors with second and third rounds of 66. On Saturday, McIlroy started his round 3-3-3-3-3-3, a first in Masters history. McIlroy held a two stroke lead over Bryson DeChambeau with eighteen to play. Much of the drama in the leadup to the final round came as a result of the history between these two the previous June. In the U.S. Open, staged at historic Pinehurst No. 2, DeChambeau bested McIlroy with an incredible up-and-down from a bunker on the 72nd hole to snatch the championship from McIlroy’s clutches. 

Additional drama was provided given the fact that DeChambeau was an advocate for the controversial Saudi-backed LIV Tour, a tour that McIlory has been so outspoken against in the past. The two most popular players in the world seemed to be locked into a duel in the sun, representing polar opposites in the golf world. 

With his opening tee shot in the final round on Sunday, McIlroy left himself a tricky lie in a bunker. He would be forced to lay up short, from where he pitched long, and three-putted for double bogey. A DeChambeau par left the two all square. McIlroy was able to recover nicely at the third, birding while DeChambeau three-putted for bogey. Another two shot swing occured at the fourth. McIlory then went on cruise control, birding the ninth to open up a four shot lead heading into the second nine. There would be no 2011. McIlroy managed birdie at the difficult par four 10th, and seemed poised to cruise to victory. 

However, at the par five 13th, McIlory chose to lay up only to dunk a short pitch into a tributary of Rae’s Creek, leading to a double bogey 7. Up ahead, Justin Rose had emerged in a round that saw him torch Augusta National with 10 birdies. McIlroy seemed to have given up assured victory. Then he hit an incredible second into the par five 15th, setting up a five-footer for eagle. He missed. He and Rose, who was already finished up ahead, were even. McIlroy pared the 16th (which included an untraditional pin location to honor the 50th anniversary of Jack Nicklaus’ ‘75 victory), and hit another incredible iron close to birdie the 17th and moved ahead by one. 

All McIlroy needed was a four at the 72nd to be crowned champion. However, after a great tee shot, he dumped a gap wedge second into the right greenside bunker, requiring an up-and-down for victory. After putting it to five feet, McIlroy missed the winning putt, and he and Rose were headed to a playoff. 

Rose had been a part of the previous playoff, where he lost to Sergio Garcia back in ‘17. Rose stuck his approach to twelve feet, seemingly taking a huge advantage. McIlory responded as he had all day, sticking a gap wedge this time to the inside of three feet. After a Rose misfire, McIlory tapped in to complete the career grand slam. 

Rory’s victory puts him in a category above the rest of his generation, and certifies him as one of the game’s legends. Rory, now 35, will now chase down more history next month, as he looks to capture his third PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, a course he has been victorious at four times in the past.

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By Dean Lowery '27, Alex Jessey '28, and Benjamin Ross '28

Welcome to Week 3 of the DSA Basketball Bracketology. This is not a complete effort to try and predict the bracket, but rather a thought experiment using only strength of schedule and strength of victory. 

Methodology

Teams are ranked according to their “quad-score”. The formula follows as such:

6 * Q1 Wins - Q1 Losses + 4 * Q2 Wins - 2 * Q2 Losses + 2 * Q3 Wins - 4 * Q3 Losses + Q4 Wins - 6 * Q4 Losses

Teams are ranked according to this, and then adjusted for conferences.

*Two teams from the same conference cannot play in the first round.

 
Last Four In: Texas, N. Carolina, Georgia, Cincinnati
First Four Out: West Virginia, Indiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas

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By Rebecca Risch '25

Introduction

The ejection is a longstanding staple of baseball’s rule enforcement and the sport’s culture. According to the Society for American Baseball Research, in 1889, Major League Baseball’s rules were changed to permit umpires to eject players from the game for rule violations. Previously, only fines were allowed as punishment for such players (Vincent). According to MLB’s Office Baseball Rules, specifically rule 8.01(c), “each umpire has the authority to disqualify any player, coach, manager, or substitute for objecting to decisions or for unsportsmanlike conduct or language, and to eject such disqualified person from the playing field”. Ejections are relatively frequent events in MLB games. In the 31,585 games played from 2011-2024, excluding the shortened and altered 2020 season due to COVID, there were 2,632 ejections. These took place across 2,081 games, averaging 1.26 ejections per game. Managers and players accounted for roughly 45% of ejections each, while coaches made up the remaining 10%. Overall, 6.5% of games in this modern era of baseball featured at least one ejection.

Ejections are more commonplace in baseball than in other sports, likely due to the established practice of arguing with umpire decisions. In the National Football League, players can be “disqualified” for flagrant unnecessary roughness, illegal contact with a player who has made a fair catch, impermissible use of the helmet, roughing the passer, kicker, or holder, striking, kicking, tripping, or kneeing opponents, etc. If a player or non-player personnel is penalized twice in the same game for unsportsmanlike conduct, they are automatically disqualified (“2024 NFL Rulebook: NFL Football Operations.”). In the National Basketball Association, players, coaches, trainers, or other team bench people may be ejected for unsportsmanlike conduct, penalties also known as technical fouls, and will automatically be ejected for committing multiple “techs” in a game (“Rule No. 12: Fouls and Penalties.”). In the National Hockey League, “game misconduct penalties” result in suspension of a player for the remainder of the game. These infractions include fighting violations, abuse of officials, stick infractions, and physical infractions (“Official Rules 2024-2025.”). All that to say, NFL, NBA, and NHL ejectees typically commit some sort of physical violation or flagrant offense to be disqualified. While the MLB includes similar qualifications for ejection, like unsportsmanlike conduct or physical violence, the majority of ejections occur by the ejectee objecting to the umpire’s on-field ruling. The umpire’s decision to eject is up to a bit more subjective discretion, as opposed to penalizing clear infractions.

Retrosheet reports on all historical ejections from 1889 to present day (“Ejections.”). Baseball has come a long way since then, it was a different game in the 1800s. Some comical reasons for antique ejections include “fighting with fan”, “threw bat at pitcher”, “hid baseball from umpires”, and “threw dirt”. Baseball is much more procedural (and some would argue tame) today. As previously mentioned, the most common reasons for ejections are arguing with the umpires over their decisions. These often regard the count, third strike calls, foul tips, check swing calls, baserunning calls, balk calls, replay rulings, fair/foul calls, and hit-by-pitch calls. When the score is close, umpire decisions can absolutely determine the outcome of a game. When managers or players strongly oppose a call, they may lose their composure and display their temper, taking it out on the umpire. Some umpires are more lenient, while others are stricter and less tolerant of inflammatory behavior and verbal abuse.

However, the most unique aspect of baseball’s ejection history is not the frequency, nor the subjectivity, but the perceived intentional ejections. It is widely understood in baseball that when a team is either losing, underperforming, or playing with low energy, the manager may pick a fight with the umpire, often in a loud and exaggerated fashion. In situations where the manager might normally overlook a questionable call, they may choose to argue dramatically in an attempt to “fire up” the team, rally them together, and shift the game’s momentum. The enduring question, which has never been conclusively answered with advanced statistics and analytics, is: do ejections affect the course of the game? As a measurable proxy, I will be asking: do ejections affect game score?

...continue reading "Rile Them Up: Do MLB Managerial Ejections Affect Game Score?"

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By Dean Lowery '27, Alex Jessey ’28, and Benjamin Ross '28

*Bold indicates a conference leader

*Blue indicates a one-bid conference leader

Woah. That was insane. Iowa St. earned a huge win last night, and Cooper Flagg might be one of the best freshmen to ever play college basketball. Auburn is probably the runaway best team in the country, but how good is the middle of the SEC? This is our (very) rough projection thus far, but better things to come.

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By Dean Lowery '27 and Benjamin Ross '28

*Bold indicates a conference leader

*Blue indicates a one-bid conference leader

Well, we’re back. Welcome to DSA Bracketology for the 2025 season. For week one, we’ll be using KenPom as our skeleton. We have a lot of work to do, but get excited. Many changes to come. Nine weeks to Selection Sunday.

Published on

By Ethan Greenberg '26

Introduction

In indoor volleyball, there is more to a starting lineup than just the six players who start; the initial positioning of the players on the court is just as important. Much of this positioning depends on the norms for players’ roles, which remain consistent across teams at all levels. The two outside hitters start opposite one another, the two middle blockers start opposite one another, and the setter starts opposite the right-side hitter1. Once these starting positions are set, players rotate throughout the game in a clockwise fashion on every side out point2. The choice of where to initially position the players within this clockwise rotation has tremendous strategic importance and can impact the team’s chances of winning.

Choosing a volleyball team’s starting rotation is, in many ways, similar to choosing a batting order in baseball. In much the same way baseball managers position their best hitters near the top of the order, volleyball coaches will rotate their lineups forward or backward so that their best servers can serve early and often. A team’s best rotations also tend to occur when their strongest hitters are in the front row, or when their best blockers and defenders are matched up against their opponent’s strongest hitters. That being said, a coach’s decision about starting rotation simplifies down to two questions: (1) in which rotations does a team have the greatest chance of scoring points, and (2) how do teams get to those rotations most often? In this paper, I will determine the ideal starting rotation for each of the NCAA women’s volleyball teams in the 2024 Sweet Sixteen this Thursday. Additionally, for the teams that have been starting in a sub-optimal rotation, I will show how much additional value they could potentially get out of their starting lineup simply by optimizing the starting rotation3.

...continue reading "These NCAA Women’s Volleyball Sweet 16 Teams Use the Wrong Starting Rotation"

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By Dean Lowery ’27, Alex Jessey ‘28, Benjamin Ross ’28, Joe Parmigiani ‘28, Christian Arnold ‘28

Introduction

Georgia got it done when they needed to, taking down the Volunteers 31-17 this past Saturday. Additionally, we saw BYU take a massive loss to Kansas, of all teams. This week will put a ton on display, most notably the noontime kick between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers. It's hard to believe that the selection will happen in a little over two weeks.

Three Big Games

#5 Indiana @ #2 Ohio St., Columbus, Ohio, Ohio Stadium

As mentioned earlier, the B1G has been waiting for this game it seems like for weeks. The winner of this game is almost certainly going to be joining Oregon in the championship game, with potential #1 seed in the playoff stakes on the line.

Keys for the Hoosiers: We’ve been waiting for this one for a while. Indiana has been flawless and dominant this season, but this will be their first true challenge. A spot in the playoff is on the line for the Hoosiers, along with an opportunity to prove to the nation that Coach Cignetti is building something special in Bloomington. All eyes are on Indiana, but in reality, they have nothing to lose. Show up in Columbus, play their game, and the Rourke-led Indiana team has a chance to earn the biggest win in their history.

Keys for the Buckeyes: In OSU’s matchup against Oregon, QB Will Howard choked under pressure in the final moments. With a chance at redemption here, and an opportunity to lock up a trip to the B1G Championship Game, the Buckeyes will be looking to Howard for leadership and execution against a rolling Indiana team. With the crowd on their side, execution is the name of the game. Effective drives on offense and tough defense will be enough for Ohio State to emerge as a true candidate for the national title.

#14 Brigham Young @ #21 Arizona St., Tempe, Arizona, Mountain America Stadium

Huge game for the Big XII. Arizona St. has the chance to jump into the playoff conversation, as they would move ahead of BYU in the standings and take the final spot in the Big XII title game for the moment. BYU also gets a chance to bounce back after a disappointing loss at Kansas.

Keys for the Cougars: BYU had a firm grip on the playoff, but a loss to Kansas derailed those hopes. With Colorado gaining momentum, now is the time for BYU to show the Big 12 what they’re made of. If they want to be playing come January, the Cougars need to win out, and this won’t be an easy task. Competing against a strong ASU team with momentum on their side, BYU’s strong defense needs to come to play, and they’ll need to put some points on the board to stabilize what could end up as a meltdown for the ages.

Keys for the Sun Devils: Momentum. The best player any team can have, and right now he’s playing for the Sun Devils. Coming off an upset over ranked Kansas State, ASU hosts BYU with a three-game win streak. Emerging as a challenger in the Big 12, a win here could put ASU in line for a shot at the Big 12 Championship. Riding the wave into this one, the Sun Devils will need a stellar performance from star RB Cam Skattebo and strong defensive play to come out of this one victorious.

#19 Army @ #6 Notre Dame, Bronx, New York, Yankee Stadium

Ah, yes. Finally. We get to see if the Black Knights are all-that. Let’s see what they can do.

Keys for the Black Knights: Play your brand of ball. If Army is to have a chance at winning this game, it’s going to have to be an ugly one. They must play their brand of smashmouth football if they are to emerge victorious. 40 minutes of possession and winning the turnover battle will be bellwethers for the Black Knights.

Keys for the Fighting Irish: Overpower the opponent through the air. Riley Leonard has quietly
been one of the most consistent quarterbacks this season, and Notre Dame can ride his arm to
the playoff with a strong game this week.

Three Big Players

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado Buffaloes @ Kansas Jayhawks

STATS: 74 REC, 911 YDS, 9 TD, 3 INT, FF

WHY HE SHOULD BE THE HEISMAN: He’s been the best player on a Colorado team that wasn’t even considered a bowl-ready team this year and now is in a position to be in the College Football Playoff. He’s done it on both sides of the ball, putting together the best two-way season since Charles Woodson in ’97.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State Broncos @ Wyoming Cowboys

STATS: 256 CAR, 1,893 YDS, 26 TD, 7.4 YPC

WHY HE SHOULD BE THE HEISMAN: He’s been the most statistically dominant player in college football this year. He’s put up incredible stat lines, week in and week out. He’s also led the Broncos to a probable playoff birth. The only problem might be that this guy plays on the West Coast.

Cam Ward, QB, Miami Hurricanes Vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

STATS: 3,494 YDS, 32 TD, 6 INT, 89.4 QBR

WHY HE SHOULD BE THE HEISMAN: He’s been the best quarterback in the country, no doubt about that. He’s led comeback after comeback, and he has the Hurricanes in position to make a return to the College Football Playoff. A strong finish would make Ward tough to top in New York.

Three Teams to Watch

Well, well, well. Who is going to occupy the coveted fifth automatic bid? We might start using the term “Cinderella” in football.

#13 Boise State Broncos (9-1) @ Wyoming

The Broncos just keep on going. If they win out, they’re almost guaranteed a spot in the playoff. Furthermore, things could get super interesting if Army manages to win out and both Boise St and Army jump the Big XII champion.

#19 Army Black Knights. Cougars (9-0) @ #6 Notre Dame

Mentioned above.

Sorry, but there is no third team. Looks like these are the last two standing.

Three Value Bets (15-8-1 on the season)

Wake Forest (+24) @ Miami

Texas A&M (-2.5) @ Auburn

Colorado (-3) @ Kansas

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By Dean Lowery ’27, Alex Jessey ‘28, Benjamin Ross ’28, Joe Parmigiani ‘28, Christian Arnold ‘28

Introduction

Wow. Georgia goes down. Miami goes down. So much is happening, and yet we are so close to the finish. Perhaps the SEC isn’t as good as we thought. Or maybe everyone in the SEC is better than everyone else. Big things to come as the Bulldogs fight for their playoff chances.

Three big games

#23 Missouri @ #21 South Carolina, Columbia, SC, Williams-Brice Stadium

While both of these teams might be out of playoff contention, this would be a nice win in a conference that is becoming increasingly competitive.

Keys for the Tigers: Many question why Missouri is currently ranked. This is their chance to prove their place and add a strong win to their resume. Mizzou’ needs another strong performance from their solid defense, and the offense led by Brady Cook will need to be productive to emerge victorious.

Keys for the Gamecocks: It’s hard to play in Columbia, and South Carolina will have both the crowd and momentum propelling them on. Sellers has been a dynamic QB this season, and with an offense full of weapons ready to fire at any moment, South Carolina will be hoping they can take down the Tigers for another big-ranked win.

#7 Tennessee @ #12 Georgia, Athens, Georgia, Sanford Stadium

This classic rivalry brings a little extra flavor this year, given that this is essentially an elimination game. Furthermore, the Volunteers have a chance to snag an almost guaranteed place in the SEC championship game, something that would all but lock up a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Keys for the Volunteers: Tennessee hasn’t beaten Georgia since 2016, and playing in Athens is no easy task. To get over the hump and pick up a huge road win, Tennessee may need to rely on its scoring defense (fifth in the FBS in points allowed and yards allowed per game). The shaky situation at quarterback (Iamaleava is questionable for the game) creates a lot of uncertainty.

Keys for the Bulldogs: The Bulldogs have the nation’s longest home winning streak; looking at this game from a historical perspective, it should be an easy win for Georgia. But Georgia’s in an unfamiliar place: they’re a 2-loss team now, and another loss will likely eliminate them from CFP contention. Georgia needs to pick up the pieces from an embarrassing loss at Ole Miss, particularly on offense. If quarterback Carson Beck and the Georgia offense start to finally roll again, a win is likely.

#20 Clemson @ Pitt, Pittsburgh, PA, Acrisure Stadium

Somehow, someway, Clemson is still alive. This is going to be a test, however, as the Panthers have been solid all season long before falling apart against SMU. Look for this to be a tight one.

Keys for the Tigers: Stymie the Pitt offense. A skilled, mature Clemson defensive line could flex its muscles and flatten Pittsburgh’s offense. The Tigers’ quarterback Cade Klubnik will also need a big game, and certainly avoid throwing costly interceptions, which the Panthers’ defense could cause. At 6-1 in ACC play, Clemson could turn its season around with a strong finish and appearance in the conference championship game.

Keys for the Panthers: Stop the bleeding and fix the offense. This game was a potential huge ACC showdown, but it’s lost its luster slightly due to Pitt’s recent struggles. The Panthers are still alive in the ACC race and need to pick up this home win. Perhaps the Panthers will need to rely on their defense as well: a repeat of the Syracuse game (3 pick-sixes in the first half) would do wonders.

Three big players

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado Buffaloes vs Utah Utes

The do-it-all star is still leading the Heisman race. Hunter is approaching 1000 yards and 10 TDs on the offensive side and is one of the best cornerbacks in college football.

Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon Ducks @ Wisconsin Badgers

Gabriel has moved up to second regarding betting odds after throwing 3 TDs and leading his team to another dominant win last week. Oregon is rolling behind Gabriel and is looking to lock up the #1 seed in the CFB playoffs.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise St. Broncos @ San Jose St. Spartans

I guess Jeanty took it personally that we took him off our 3 big players list because he exploded last week for 220 yards and 3 TDs. He is putting up historical numbers this year and is shaping up to be one of the finalists in New York. He has a big game this week vs San Jose St. for his team's playoff hopes but as long as Jeanty wakes up, the Broncos like their odds.

Three teams to watch

Well, well, well. Who is going to occupy the coveted fifth automatic bid? We might start using the term “Cinderella” in football.

#13 Boise State Broncos (8-1) @ San Jose St.

The Broncos got major props from the committee, given that they were ranked five spots ahead of the next best Group-of-Five team. The Broncos held off Nevada last week and visited San Jose St. in another Mountain West showdown.

#18 Washington St. Cougars (8-1) @ New Mexico

Washington St. has quietly risen the polls, rising up to #18 this week. Their one loss is to Boise St., and it was pretty emphatic, so it would likely take a couple of slip-ups from the Broncos to give the Cougars room to prevail. Nonetheless, they are beginning to turn heads.

#24 Army Black Knights (9-0) @ #8 Notre Dame (Nov. 23)

Woah. The Committee gave the Black Knights no respect and made it abundantly clear that Army will have to win out to earn a spot in this year’s playoff. The Knights have a bye week to prepare for their biggest game (Nov. 23) against the Fighting Irish.

3 value bets (15-5-1 on the season)

BYU (-2.5) vs Kansas

Texas(-12) @ Arkansas

Oregon(-14) @ Wisconsin

The “Dartmouth” Poll

Well, the AP Poll and the CFP Poll are out, and both have interesting takes. Here’s what our team came up with.