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Author: Dartmouth Sports Analytics

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By Ava Politis '26

Introduction

Professional baseball's National League was the only league to exist until the American League was founded in 1901 ("American League is Founded"). While both teams were considered major leagues, the American League utilized the Designated Hitter rule introduced in 1973 ("What are the Differences Between the American and National Leagues?"). The designated hitter is a player who does not play defense and bats in place of the pitcher since pitchers are not known as the strongest hitters on the team ("Designated Hitter Rule | Glossary"). For example, from 1929-1941, pitcher Wes Ferrell only hit 38 home runs in his entire professional career, which is the most a pitcher has ever hit. On the other hand, David Ortiz hit 541 home runs as a designated hitter from 1997 to 2016 as he crushed 30-plus homers in 10 different seasons ("All time home run leaders at each position"). When interleague play occurred, and an American League team was playing at a National League stadium, the pitcher would have to hit and vice versa. In 2022, the National League officially gave in and officially adopted the Designated Hitter rule. 

Although adding a designated hitter to the National League would eliminate moments like Bartolo Colon hitting his famous home run in 2016, it could allow the National League to bring up more power hitters to the plate and rest their pitchers. On the surface, having designated hitters instead of pitchers would create a more effective offense as they hit for power. They typically have more hits and home runs than an average pitcher, which would allow more runs to be produced per game. According to Braves pitcher Charlie Morton, "'I don't think anyone wants to watch me strike out on three pitches and walk back to the dugout 98 times out of a hundred'" (Kurkjian). With that being said, some pitchers were also great hitters, as Madison Bumgarner hit two grand slams in his career, which is as many as Pete Rose and Derek Jeter had in 25,248 at-bats combined (Kurkjian). This paper will investigate whether or not there is statistically significant evidence supporting the hypothesis that designated hitters' offensive production in the National League is more effective than National League pitchers.

...continue reading "The Designated Hitter Rule: Was the National League Right?"

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By Sabin Hart '24, Grace McGinley '26, Dean Lowery '27, Tyler Goldstein '27, and Cam Cowperthwaite '27

Introduction

Across all sports, one of the most prevalent problems is figuring out which prospects will pan out and which will crash and burn. Millions of dollars are being poured into predictive analytics for everything from next-day parlays in sports betting to ranking draft prospects years in advance. Knowing this, we wanted to explore what causes a player in the National Basketball Association (NBA) to take the leap from a role player to all-star. Can the statistics tell us if the 41st overall pick will be the future Most Valuable Player? This paper looks at recent all-stars to determine if they showed early hints before they made the leap to stardom.

...continue reading "What Makes a Breakout? Analyzing the Most Promising Young Stars in the National Basketball Association"

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By Ari Nathanson '26

Introduction

In 1989, Jimmy Johnson took over as coach of the Dallas Cowboys. He inherited a depleted roster on the heels of a 3-13 campaign, its third consecutive losing season after a still-NFL-record 20 consecutive winning seasons. Johnson had a clear strategy for improvement: amass as much draft capital as possible. However, in order to capitalize on his bounty of picks, he needed to know how to properly value them. At Johnson’s request, vice president Mike McCoy put together the NFL’s first draft pick trade value chart. It assigned the first overall pick an arbitrary value of 3,000 and a decreasing value to each successive pick. Using the chart, the Cowboys completed a whirlwind of trades in an attempt to exploit perceived market inefficiencies, drafting 42 players from 1991 to 1993. McCoy created the chart based on past trade behavior and his own gut instinct—not using advanced analytics. Nevertheless, it led the Cowboys to resounding success. Headlined by homegrown talent including Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, and Emmitt Smith, Dallas won three Super Bowls in the early 1990s. Soon after, the chart became a fixture of draft rooms around the league. Whereas previously teams had traded picks arbitrarily (as acknowledged by former Cowboys executive Gil Brandt), they now treated pick-trading as a more exact science. Yet Johnson’s chart was not without its critics. In 2005, business professors Cade Massey of the University of Pennsylvania Wharton and Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago Booth published “The Loser’s Curse.” They presented a compelling argument that NFL teams—even after the spread of Johnson’s chart—significantly overestimated the value of picking high in the draft. They also criticized the going discount rate (the cost of exchanging a future pick for a present pick) as exorbitantly high. In the years since, a plethora of alternative charts have been developed, claiming to more accurately reflect picks’ true value. Yet according to Bill Belichick, “everybody probably [still] uses about the same value chart.” How exactly did the proliferation of the Jimmy Johnson trade chart affect the draft pick trade market? Did criticism of the Johnson chart, exemplified by the seminal 2005 Massey-Thaler study, change NFL teams’ thinking? What other events, if any, had an impact? In this paper, I will investigate all of these questions through an in-depth analysis of the draft pick trade market over the past 40 years.

...continue reading "Exploring the Evolution of the NFL Draft Pick Trade Market Over Time"

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Published on 1 Comment on Which factors can indicate and give foresight to major first-round upsets in the Men’s NCAA Tournament?

By Dean Lowery '27

Introduction

The Men’s NCAA Tournament has a reputation for being unpredictable. Every year, millions of Americans attempt to fill out a perfect bracket in hopes of correctly predicting all 63 games that are contained in ‘March Madness’. However, some of this madness stands out above the rest: the ‘bracket buster’: the upset that comes as a surprise to seemingly every expert, breaking the hearts of millions of Americans and their dreams of a perfect bracket.

...continue reading "Which factors can indicate and give foresight to major first-round upsets in the Men’s NCAA Tournament?"

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By Atul Venkatesh '27

Evaluating player performance is one of the most critical concepts in pro football. One method to do so is Approximate Value (AV), where players are given a seasonal score based on accolades and statistics that accumulate throughout their careers. While AV reflects a player's performance historically, it lacks insight into their current worth. To address this issue, I have modified AV to create the Present AV (PAV) statistic, which shows the current value of over 1800 players through the 2022 NFL season. I have also created a draft value chart which gives the expected PAV of every draft pick. With both of these metrics, it is now possible to evaluate past trades, determine the appropriate draft compensation for a player, and use a statistics-based method to determine the most valuable players in the league.

...continue reading "PAVing the Way for the Future – A Model That Determines Player Value and Evaluates Trades in the NFL"

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By Atul Venkatesh '27

22 weeks. 284 games. The NFL season has brought us everything, from incredible individual performances to walk-off wins. After five months of hard-fought football, it comes down to the final four quarters. 60 minutes. Legends will undoubtedly be made. Dreams will certainly be fulfilled. And hearts will certainly be broken. After nearly two full weeks of anticipation, the big game is happening this Sunday. Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers. 6:30 PM.

...continue reading "Predicting the Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl"

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By Ethan Greenberg '26

Introduction

At the uppermost levels of international beach volleyball, players must navigate a complex system of tiered tournaments hosted around the world to achieve ranking points and make a living. Players in the highest echelon compete in the Beach Pro Tour’s Elite 16 tournaments, competitions reserved for the sixteen highest-ranked teams in the world (at the time of registration). Just below Elite 16s are Beach Pro Tour Challenge events. While these 24-team contests offer fewer ranking points and less money than the Elite 16s, they’re critical proving grounds for any teams trying to break into top tier tournaments.

...continue reading "Beach Volleyball’s Strategic Gamble: Analyzing the Efficacy of Pool Play Forfeits at Pro Tour Challenge Events"

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This year's NFL featured some incredible performances from teams that weren't expected to be great, or even very good, coming into the season. These teams were all led by incredible coaches, who, through their leadership and adaptability, were able to outperform expectations and guide their players to the playoffs with a chance for a deep run. The race for the Coach of the Year award appears tighter this season than in previous ones. Who will win? Some of our club members make the (analytical) case for some of the top candidates below.

...continue reading "Predicting the NFL Coach of the Year Winner"

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By Ahaan Jindal '27

Introduction

The implementation of a range of regulatory changes by the FIA (Fédération Internationale de
l’Automobile) in 2022 endeavored to usher in a new era of competitive Formula 1 racing with cars stacked much closer to each other and more teams jostling for podiums and pole-positions than ever before. Whether or not that promise has materialized is yet up for debate, thanks in large part to Max Verstappen’s unprecedented and record-breaking 2023 World Championship-winning season.

...continue reading "“Lights Out and Away We Go!”: How Race Factors and Track Conditions Impact First Lap Incidents in Formula 1"

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Another thrilling round of playoff games has narrowed the NFL playoff field to four final teams remaining. In the AFC, the Chiefs are heading into Baltimore to face the Ravens, while in the NFC, the Lions are taking a trip out West to face the 49ers. Our club members provide insight into the Chiefs-Ravens matchup and predict who will make it to the Super Bowl.

...continue reading "Predicting the 2024 NFL AFC Championship Game"