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Author: Dartmouth Sports Analytics

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This year's NFL featured some incredible performances from teams that weren't expected to be great, or even very good, coming into the season. These teams were all led by incredible coaches, who, through their leadership and adaptability, were able to outperform expectations and guide their players to the playoffs with a chance for a deep run. The race for the Coach of the Year award appears tighter this season than in previous ones. Who will win? Some of our club members make the (analytical) case for some of the top candidates below.

...continue reading "Predicting the NFL Coach of the Year Winner"

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By Ahaan Jindal '27

Introduction

The implementation of a range of regulatory changes by the FIA (Fédération Internationale de
l’Automobile) in 2022 endeavored to usher in a new era of competitive Formula 1 racing with cars stacked much closer to each other and more teams jostling for podiums and pole-positions than ever before. Whether or not that promise has materialized is yet up for debate, thanks in large part to Max Verstappen’s unprecedented and record-breaking 2023 World Championship-winning season.

...continue reading "“Lights Out and Away We Go!”: How Race Factors and Track Conditions Impact First Lap Incidents in Formula 1"

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Another thrilling round of playoff games has narrowed the NFL playoff field to four final teams remaining. In the AFC, the Chiefs are heading into Baltimore to face the Ravens, while in the NFC, the Lions are taking a trip out West to face the 49ers. Our club members provide insight into the Chiefs-Ravens matchup and predict who will make it to the Super Bowl.

...continue reading "Predicting the 2024 NFL AFC Championship Game"

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By Quentin Proud '26 and Grayson Segars '26

Introduction

On December 4th, 2017, Jimbo Fisher shocked the college football world by leaving Florida State to sign a 10-year, $75 million fully guaranteed contract to become the next head coach at Texas A&M. Fisher, just a few years removed from back-to-back college football playoff appearances and a national championship, was viewed by the Texas A&M’s administration as the man who would finally help the school’s football program make the jump from “great, but not elite, program” to “perennial championship contender”. In Fisher’s introductory press conference, Texas A&M Athletic Director Scott Woodward would claim that Fisher “is the right coach at the right time...” and that he was “confident that the opportunity for greatness is right around the corner.” Fisher echoed this optimistic tone, saying he would “try to take Texas A&M where it should be at the top of the college football world.”

...continue reading "Predicting the Success of Football Coaches"

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Last week's NFL wild card round produced some thrilling games, with the Buccaneers and Packers upsetting the Eagles and Cowboys, the Bills, Chiefs, and Texans winning blowout games, and the Lions' defense just barely holding on for their one-point win. In the AFC, the top four seeds remain, while in the NFC, the 7-seed Packers are looking to continue their hot streak against the 1-seeded 49ers. Our club members predict the upcoming divisional round below.

...continue reading "Predicting the 2024 NFL Divisional Round"

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By Michael Bond '25

Introduction

When the game is on the line, few players face as much pressure and public scrutiny as kickers. Some of the most memorable games have ended with similarly legendary field goal attempts, from Justin Tucker’s record-breaking 66-yard make to Cody Parkey’s “Double Doink” miss. Certain players may handle the pressure better than others, and the clutch factor could be an important consideration when front offices look for their next kicker. This paper aims to evaluate kicker performance at the end of close games in order to determine whether performance significantly changes in clutch time and discover which players have historically stepped up their game when it matters most.

...continue reading "Are Kickers Clutch? An Analysis of NFL Kicker Performance at the End of Close Games"

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If the NFL were scripted, the writers couldn’t have come up with a better lineup to open up the 2024 playoffs this weekend. Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff facing off against their former teams in Detroit. Tyreek Hill returning to Arrowhead for the first time since leaving the Chiefs. Mike McCarthy facing off against a team he coached for over ten years, who themselves will see if Jordan Love is next in line in the succession of great Packers quarterbacks. In this article, our club members look past the storylines to predict the outcome of each Wild Card game below. ...continue reading "Predicting the 2024 NFL Wild Card Round"

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Introduction

This NBA season was wild. LeBron passed Kareem. Kevin Durant was traded. Luka missed the playoffs. But, some of the most fun that us viewers had all season was through the remarkable individual performances. And with great individual performances come great seasons, which lead a contentious Most Valuable Player race. Who will win? Some of our club members made the (analytical) case for some of the top candidates below. ...continue reading "Making the Case for the NBA MVP"

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By Michael Bond '25

Introduction

Shohei Ohtani took the MLB by storm in 2021, winning the American League MVP in his first season free from injury and rehab limitations since his impressive rookie debut three years prior. Before he was dominating the American game, Ohtani put together a decorated career in his home country of Japan. His time in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) gave him an opportunity to polish his pitching and batting skills before making the jump to harder competition.[1] His success, and that of other baseball legends such as Ichiro Suzuki, highlight the merit of the NPB within the international baseball community. This paper aims to compare the NPB with the MLB, and discuss how league structure and rules affect trends of team success.

...continue reading "The MLB and Japan’s NPB: A Quantitative Comparison"

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By Fintan Letzelter '26 

Introduction

It is week 12 of the 2022 NFL season, and the Baltimore Ravens lead the Jacksonville Jaguars 27–20 with 20 seconds left in the game. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has just led the Jaguars on a methodical 2-minute drill down the field, and now faces first-and-goal at the Ravens’ 10-yard line. Lawrence drops back and throws to Marvin Jones in the end zone, who brings it in for a touchdown. Head coach Doug Pederson now faces a choice: go for a 2-point conversion to try to win in regulation or kick an extra point and go to overtime. Choosing to go for two puts the result of the game into the hands of the offense that just marched down the field.

...continue reading "To Tie or Not to Tie: Should NFL Teams Go for Two at the End of Their Games?"