Skip to content

Author: Dartmouth Sports Analytics

Published on

By Avery Borgmann '24, Luca Caviezel '24, Head of Research Devan Fink '23, Jack Maling '23, Joseph Notis '21, President Matthew Schnell '22, Treasurer Avery Sholes '24

Introduction

Suppose the Los Angeles Lakers are playing the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are trailing by three points with 15 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, suggesting that they need to intentionally foul a Lakers player and send him to the free throw line, in a last attempt to get one more possession. LeBron James is having a poor shooting night from the field for the Lakers. Should the Suns purposefully try to foul James, one of the greatest basketball players in history, hoping that his poor shooting night will continue at the free-throw line? Generally speaking, will a shooter who is ice cold from the field also struggle at the free throw line? In this paper, we explore the relationship between a shooter’s success from the field and their success at the line within the same game, and examine whether teams should purposefully foul players at the end of close games who are not shooting well from the field. 

...continue reading "Does In-Game Field Goal Percentage Influence In-Game Free Throw Percentage?"

Published on

With the major NBA regular season award announcements coming shortly, our members broke down the most interesting races and highlighted the most deserving player for each award. Our picks for MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Coach of the Year are below.

...continue reading "The Deserving Winners of the NBA Awards"

Published on

The 2021 NFL Draft featured five quarterbacks that were selected in the first round, three of whom were the top three picks. This number is unusually large compared to past drafts, and the expectation for many of these quarterbacks is to turn their franchises around within a few years. Each of these players were widely successful in their college careers: three of them appeared in the College Football Playoff, two of them were FBS champions, one was an FCS champion, and all of them spent a portion of their careers with teams ranked in the Top 25 of their respective divisions. With so much hype surrounding these players, the Dartmouth Sports Analytics Club predicts how well each player will fit into the system of their new franchises. 

...continue reading "First Round Quarterbacks: Why Each New Signal-Caller Is Poised for Success"

Published on

With the NBA playoffs only a month away, the seeding situation in both conferences is beginning to heat up. That said, some teams have asserted themselves as true contenders while others have already played themselves out of the playoff race. The expanded play-in tournament for seeds 7-10, however, has allowed for more teams to stay right in the thick of the playoff hunt, creating a host of new storylines to follow as the regular season winds down. Many of last year’s contenders — Denver, Milwaukee, and both Los Angeles teams, to name a few — are right back in the hunt, while the rise of the Nets and Sixers in the East and the Jazz and Suns in the West has shaken up the narrative. In a season where many teams have risen far above and some fallen wildly short of expectations, a few members of the Dartmouth Sports Analytics Club wanted to highlight this season’s top overperformers and underperformers. 

...continue reading "Analyzing the NBA’s Biggest Over and Underachievers"

Published on

When March rolls around every year, the hype begins for college basketball’s national championship. Sixty-four teams, seeded into four regions of sixteen, compete to win six straight and take home the title. From bracket-making to skipping class on game days, there’s a lot to enjoy about March Madness. But when it comes to what makes the tournament shine, the upsets take the cake. Watching a 10- or 11-seed to claw past a favorite and searching for an elusive 12-5 upset appeals to the underdog in all of this. With 2021’s tournament over and Gonzaga’s undefeated streak coming to an end right at the finish line to the hands of Baylor, a few members of the Sports Analytics Club have decided to take a look at some of this tournament’s best upsets to see if there are any common threads.

...continue reading "Upsets-in-Review: Breaking Down Four of Our March Madness Favorites"

Published on

With the Final Four tipping off this weekend, the Dartmouth Sports Analytics executive board presents the case for each of the remaining teams in the NCAA Tournament. No. 2 Houston takes on No. 1 Baylor on Saturday at 5:14 p.m. ET, while No. 11 UCLA faces off against No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga at 8:34 p.m. ET. The National Championship will be on Monday, April 5 at 9 p.m. ET.

Without further ado, the case for each Final Four team to cut down the nets...

...continue reading "Who Will Win the NCAA Championship? The Case for Every Final Four Team"

Published on

Joe Gyorda '22

Sports are finally returning after having halted as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The NBA is one of many professional leagues with plans to resume their paused seasons. This past NBA season was arguably the most balanced the league has been in the past five years, presenting fans with entertaining basketball that was just culminating when things shut down. Given it has been nearly four months since the last NBA game was played, I’ve decided to list my picks for awards for the 2019-20 season thus far. We’ll see which of these predictions hold up once the season restarts. Many of these awards are certainly still up in the air, but here are the picks I ended up going with:

...continue reading "Speculating NBA Awards for the 2019-20 Season"

Published on

Tyler Brody '21

Introduction

Believe it or not, there was a time when the center was the marquee position in basketball. Many maintained no team could win an NBA championship without a dominant interior scorer, and legendary big men like George Mikan, Bill Russell, and Kareem Abdul Jabbar carried their teams to multiple titles through back to the basket dominance. In today’s game, however, you would be hard-pressed to find an offense run through the post, and, since Shaq, we have not seen a dominant five bulldoze his team’s path to a championship. ...continue reading "Evolution of the Center: How the Introduction of the Three-Point Shot Devalued the Traditional Big Man and Altered the Offensive Profile of NBA Centers"

Published on

Matthew Schnell '22

In nearly every sporting event, whether at an eight-year-old’s soccer game or the Super Bowl, fans can be heard screaming at the officials. Even when they make the right call, sports fanatics cannot help themselves from berating referees from doing their jobs. In soccer, fans take it to another level. One missed or wrong penalty call can cost teams three points. ...continue reading "The Fans’ Impact on the Whistle: How do the boos and jeers of shouting fans manipulate the referees’ calls during a game?"