Dartmouth Sports Analytics members make their predictions ahead of this Sunday's matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.
Connor Turner '20
Part of me has a hunch that the Niners will actually pull off the upset here. Maybe it’s the contrarian in me, maybe it’s just my inability to imagine Andy Reid not choking. However, even though I’m not usually one to go against my gut feeling, I think I might have to this time. This game is going to be won or lost by the San Francisco defense, and the secondary in particular. Even though Richard Sherman is still playing at an elite level, I’m not convinced that he will be enough to fully contain Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the prolific Kansas City passing game, particularly with San Francisco only having an average pass rush (13th in the league in win rate). The 49ers will put up some numbers, but at the end of the day, I just don’t think they’ll be able to put up enough.
Chiefs 42, 49ers 27
Baily Deeter '22
I’m growing less and less convinced as gameday approaches, but I can’t bring myself to bet against Patrick Mahomes. San Francisco has been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks and RPOs this season, so I can see Kansas City exposing the 49ers’ zone coverage. If the 49ers switch to man at any point, Tyreek Hill will be in the end zone faster than Andy Reid can say “McNuggets”. Kyle Shanahan has had success against Steve Spagnuolo and will certainly establish the run on Sunday, but I don’t think it will be enough to keep up with the Kansas City offense. Patrick Mahomes wins MVP and invests in a bigger trophy case for the future.
Chiefs 31, 49ers 26
Sam Getz '22
Don’t get me wrong, the San Francisco 49ers have a special defense. The front four of Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Deforest Buckner, and Dee Ford is second to none. That being said, I don’t believe it will be enough to slow down Patrick Mahomes. The 49ers’ secondary will get picked apart in zone or exposed in man simply because of how fast the Chief’s track team receivers are. One of the two x-factors in this game is the Chief’s offensive line. If they are able to give Patrick Mahomes any amount of time with a clean pocket, it’s a wrap. The 49er’s will find some success against the Chief’s lackluster defense. However, there will not be another monster game running the ball as the Chiefs showed in the AFC championship that they can stop the run as NFL leading rusher Derrick Henry was a nonfactor. Outside of Tyrann Mathieu, there are not a ton of impact players on their defense so if Jimmy Garoppolo, who I believe is the other x-factor of this game, is able to get it going in a big way, the 49ers have a chance.
Chiefs win 28-24
Joe Gyorda '22
As a devout Patriots fan, I’m disheartened that the Pats will not be representing the AFC in the SuperBowl this year. At the same time, it is refreshing to see new teams fight for the Lombardi trophy, and this year’s game offers a tantalizing matchup. The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers were two of the best offensive teams this regular season in much different ways. The Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, ranked second in the NFL in passing yards per game this season, while the 49ers offense, led by Jimmy Garoppolo, ranked first in the league in rushing YPG. On the defensive end, both teams held their own this season, each ranking in the top 9 in pass defense and top 3 in rush defense. The Chiefs are coming off a dominant win against the Titans in the AFC Championship game, holding Derek Henry to under 70 rushing yards after he ran for 180+ in three consecutive games. If the Chiefs’ defense can hold their own and limit the 49ers’ rushing game, then they’ll have the edge in the SuperBowl.
Chiefs win 34-28
Rahul Kolluri '22
It's been 16 years since Donovan McNabb's fourth quarter heave to L.J Smith floated into Rodney Harrison's arms, denying Andy Reid his long-awaited championship. Almost two decades later, the NFL's 6th all-time leader in wins for a head coach will have a second chance at a storybook ending. Kyle Shanahan, Nick Bosa, and co. will have something to say about that. This San Francisco unit is one of the most balanced outfits in living memory. Arik Armstead and Bosa will wreak havoc, and a career renaissance from Richard Sherman has put him back on a Canton-bound trajectory. There’s more than enough firepower to go around between these two – George Kittle trading touchdowns with Travis Kelce should be all-time entertainment. If Raheem Mostert can come anywhere close to his absurd NFC Championship performance, the Niners will prove a force againsta Chiefs defense that’s still vastly improved from last year’s January exit. Patrick Mahomes back to his world-breaking ways and Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Sammy Watkins at full-strength will make for a classic by any stretch. With two head coaches searching for Super Bowl redemption, I can’t shake the gut feeling that the Niners pull through and deliver the franchise’s sixth Lombardi Trophy.
SF 28 – KC 24
Devan Fink '23
Call me a homer, but if there’s a team that can slow Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense just enough, it’s the 49ers. Yes, Mahomes has looked unstoppable through two weeks of the playoffs, but we have to remember who he has played. The Texans ranked 26th in pass defense, according to Football Outsider’s defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric, while the Titans ranked 21st. The Niners, meanwhile, had the second-best pass defense in the league this season, anchored by their excellent and now-fully-healthy pass rush with Dee Ford, DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa. Even still, many doubt the Niners’ ability to stop Mahomes, but I argue that slowing him — even just a tad — should be enough for the most balanced team in the NFL to emerge victorious.
49ers 31, Chiefs 28