By Luca Caviezel '24
Introduction
It’s June 13, 2004; the Group Stage of the UEFA European Championships. Bitter rivals France and England are facing off and are tied 1-1 deep into stoppage time. It looks as if the game will end in a draw when France star Thierry Henry is taken down in the England box after pouncing on a loose pass from Steven Gerrard. The whistle blows–the penalty is awarded to France! Manager Jacques Santini is faced with a dilemma: should he allow Henri to take the penalty, being one of the best players in the world and the player who earned the penalty; or does he instead choose team captain and global superstar Zinedine Zidane to take it instead. It was a crucial moment in the game, as a goal would almost certainly seal the win for the French. In the end, Zidane stepped up to take the kick, and coolly powered the ball into the bottom-left corner of the goal after sending the keeper in the wrong direction. The stadium erupted in cheers as the defending European champions won the game at the last moment.
Jacques Santini made the right choice in having Zidane take the penalty kick, and in this particular instance both the player who was fouled (Henri) and the one who ended up taking the kick (Zidane) would have been great options to take the potentially game-winning penalty. But the question of whether the player who is fouled for the penalty should be the one to take it is one that has plagued soccer coaches and players at every level for a long time. One argument for the player who was fouled taking the kick is that they earned the penalty and therefore it is rightfully theirs to take. On the other hand, emotions might be heightened if they just had an easy goal-scoring opportunity stolen from them. Additionally, players skill levels and experience must be considered–older players might not be as unsettled by the intensity of the situation as younger ones. Many teams have a designated penalty taker, for example Jorginho for Chelsea FC, but what if the player fouled is the designated taker? All of this must be considered by coaches when deciding who should take the penalty.
There have been few previous studies that attempt to answer the question of whether the fouled player should take the penalty kick. Eichler (2002) analyzed 5 seasons of German top flight soccer and found that fouled players scored 12% more often than non-fouled players. Drösser (2003), on the other hand, analyzed 10 seasons of the German top division and found that fouled players scored 4% fewer penalties, giving a slight advantage to non-fouled players. Kuss, Kluttig, and Stoll (2006) found that there was no statistically significant difference between the penalty conversion rates for players who were fouled and players who weren’t, controlling for several variables including age and number of goals scored. In short, there is no consensus on what the correct approach is. Additionally, there have been no recent studies on the subject. This paper seeks to answer the question: should the player who wins a penalty be the one to take it? It will look at penalties taken in the English Premier League from the beginning of the 2018-19 season through the end of November of the 2021-22 season. I hypothesize that non-fouled players will have a higher penalty average than fouled players.
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