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Tag: Basketball

All research and blog posts relating to basketball

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By Dean Lowery '27, Alex Jessey '28, and Benjamin Ross '28

Welcome to Week 3 of the DSA Basketball Bracketology. This is not a complete effort to try and predict the bracket, but rather a thought experiment using only strength of schedule and strength of victory. 

Methodology

Teams are ranked according to their “quad-score”. The formula follows as such:

6 * Q1 Wins - Q1 Losses + 4 * Q2 Wins - 2 * Q2 Losses + 2 * Q3 Wins - 4 * Q3 Losses + Q4 Wins - 6 * Q4 Losses

Teams are ranked according to this, and then adjusted for conferences.

*Two teams from the same conference cannot play in the first round.

 
Last Four In: Texas, N. Carolina, Georgia, Cincinnati
First Four Out: West Virginia, Indiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas

Published on

By Dean Lowery '27, Alex Jessey ’28, and Benjamin Ross '28

*Bold indicates a conference leader

*Blue indicates a one-bid conference leader

Woah. That was insane. Iowa St. earned a huge win last night, and Cooper Flagg might be one of the best freshmen to ever play college basketball. Auburn is probably the runaway best team in the country, but how good is the middle of the SEC? This is our (very) rough projection thus far, but better things to come.

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Introduction

The National Basketball Association (NBA) season is just around the corner, and Dartmouth Sports Analytics could not be more excited. Through extensive research, we have come up with some educated predictions for this season's awards. We have chosen to predict the winners of seven NBA awards: Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Sixth Man of the Year, Coach of the Year, and Executive of the Year. Will Nikola Jokic Win his fourth MVP in five years?  Who out of this rookie class will emerge as a superstar? Can anyone stop Rudy Gobert from winning his fifth DPOY? Will we get any of our predictions right? Read along and find out.  

...continue reading "Predicting the Major Awards for the Upcoming NBA Season"

Published on

By Sabin Hart '24, Grace McGinley '26, Dean Lowery '27, Tyler Goldstein '27, and Cam Cowperthwaite '27

Introduction

Across all sports, one of the most prevalent problems is figuring out which prospects will pan out and which will crash and burn. Millions of dollars are being poured into predictive analytics for everything from next-day parlays in sports betting to ranking draft prospects years in advance. Knowing this, we wanted to explore what causes a player in the National Basketball Association (NBA) to take the leap from a role player to all-star. Can the statistics tell us if the 41st overall pick will be the future Most Valuable Player? This paper looks at recent all-stars to determine if they showed early hints before they made the leap to stardom.

...continue reading "What Makes a Breakout? Analyzing the Most Promising Young Stars in the National Basketball Association"

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Published on 1 Comment on Which factors can indicate and give foresight to major first-round upsets in the Men’s NCAA Tournament?

By Dean Lowery '27

Introduction

The Men’s NCAA Tournament has a reputation for being unpredictable. Every year, millions of Americans attempt to fill out a perfect bracket in hopes of correctly predicting all 63 games that are contained in ‘March Madness’. However, some of this madness stands out above the rest: the ‘bracket buster’: the upset that comes as a surprise to seemingly every expert, breaking the hearts of millions of Americans and their dreams of a perfect bracket.

...continue reading "Which factors can indicate and give foresight to major first-round upsets in the Men’s NCAA Tournament?"