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By Dean Lowery ’27, Alex Jessey ‘28, Benjamin Ross ’28, Joe Parmigiani ‘28, Christian Arnold ‘28

Introduction

Things are getting very real, very quickly. Texas A&M is now the last undefeated SEC team in conference play. Notre Dame walked all over Navy. Texas managed to survive in Nashville. Now, all eyes turn towards Penn St.-Ohio St. We all wonder if the Nittany Lions are ready to step into their moment.

Three Big Games

#4 Ohio St. @ #3 Penn St., University Park, Pennsylvania, Beaver Stadium

It's a huge, classic showdown in the Big Ten. Penn State has been eyeing this game all season, for good reason. Ohio State comes into Happy Valley as the favorite, having won a record 7 straight in the series. Penn State’s star QB Drew Allar remains a game-time decision, and his performance might tip the scales in the Nittany Lions’ favor.

Keys for the Buckeyes: Will Howard must remain poised. The stakes are high for the Buckeyes, even if they are favored. Early mistakes from the Ohio St. offense could lead to this becoming a pressure-packed second half.

Keys for the Nittany Lions: Forget the past. This year is not the same as the years past. Penn St. has to look beyond the name brand of Ohio State and focus on winning the line of scrimmage.

#2 Georgia Vs. Florida, Jacksonville, Florida, EverBank Stadium

The Jacksonville rendition of this storied rivalry will be put on pause for a couple of years, with meetings in Atlanta and Tampa recently announced for the next two seasons. Coming off a bye, Georgia is on the rise, playing their best football and looking like the team to beat in the SEC. However, Florida, playing the most difficult schedule in the country, is a respectable 4-3 coming off a big win over Kentucky. Can the Gators topple the unsuspecting Bulldogs?

Keys for the Bulldogs: Play their game. The ‘Dawgs have won six out of the last seven matchups, and should easily handle the Gators.

Keys for the Gators: Ride the wave of emotion, and the wave of DJ Lagway. A resounding 48-20 win against Kentucky last week could perhaps provide enough hope for the Gators to make this one a game.

#18 Pittsburgh @ #20 Southern Methodist, Dallas, Texas, Gerald J. Ford Stadium

It’s the ACC showdown nobody expected, in the heart of Texas. Pitt is coming off of a huge confidence-building rout of Syracuse, absolutely picking apart the Syracuse offense with 3 pick-sixes in the first half alone. SMU has been finding ways to win in their first year in the ACC, coming off a big overtime win at Duke. The winner of this matchup will have a very real shot at the ACC championship and the College Football Playoff; the loser will likely watch from the sidelines.

Keys for the Panthers: Get Desmond Reid going. The Panthers have struggled to establish a run game throughout ACC play, and need to get something going at the line of scrimmage to open up deep threats.

Keys for the Mustangs: Ride the offense. SMU has averaged 50.5 points per game at home over their last 12, and this offense seems like it has no intentions of slowing down anytime soon.

Three Big Players

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado Buffaloes, BYE

Travis jumped into the spotlight, replacing Ashton Jeanty at the top spot, after a nine-reception, 153-yard, two-touchdown performance. The man is perhaps the best offensive and defensive player in the Big XII and is reminiscent of ‘97 Heisman winner, Charles Woodson. The Buffaloes are now ranked, but more team success down the stretch could be critical for Hunter’s cause.

Cam Ward, QB, Miami Hurricanes, Vs. Duke

Cam Ward has been the most solid player on this list, however, faltered in a huge rivalry game, failing to put a touchdown on the board. However, his Heisman campaign might fall squarely on his performance in the ACC Championship in Charlotte.

Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon Ducks @ Michigan

The captain of the best team in the country. A classic Heisman candidate, Gabriel has been extremely composed in his leadership of the Ducks. Against Illinois, Gabriel led the Ducks to a 38-9 victory, tallying three touchdowns to go along with one interception. He’ll receive a nice test in the coming week, as he leads the number one team in the country into the Big House.

Three Teams to Watch

Well, well, well. Who is going to occupy the coveted fifth automatic bid? We might start using the term “Cinderella” in football.

Boise State Broncos (6-1) Vs. San Diego St.

Boise St. earned a huge victory against Mountain West rival UNLV and will look to cruise for the rest of the season. Perhaps a rematch with the Rebels later in the season is the only thing standing between the Broncos and a playoff berth.

Army Black Knights (7-0) Vs. Air Force

A bye week for the Black Knights gave them time to think. A questionably small margin against East Carolina gives fans reason for concern, but the Black Knights look to the future and will be keeping a close watch on the Navy-Notre Dame. What Army does have going for them is that they’re the only undefeated team on this list, and that could serve as critical when it comes to decision time.

Washington St. (7-1) OFF

Washington St. has quietly risen the polls, finally cracking the rankings this week. Their one loss is to Boise St., and pretty emphatic at that, so it would likely take a couple of slip-ups from the Broncos to give the Cougars room to prevail. Nonetheless, they are beginning to turn heads.

Three Value Bets

(11-3-1 on the season)

Minnesota (-3) @ #24 Illinois

#10 Texas A&M (-3) @ South Carolina

#13 Indiana (-8) @ Michigan St.

The "Dartmouth" Poll

Well, the AP Poll stinks. And the CFP poll is still weeks away. Here’s what our team came up with.

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By Dean Lowery '27

Introduction

The Men’s NCAA Tournament has a reputation for being unpredictable. Every year, millions of Americans attempt to fill out a perfect bracket in hopes of correctly predicting all 63 games that are contained in ‘March Madness’. However, some of this madness stands out above the rest: the ‘bracket buster’: the upset that comes as a surprise to seemingly every expert, breaking the hearts of millions of Americans and their dreams of a perfect bracket.

...continue reading "Which factors can indicate and give foresight to major first-round upsets in the Men’s NCAA Tournament?"