By Ethan Greenberg '26
Introduction
In indoor volleyball, there is more to a starting lineup than just the six players who start; the initial positioning of the players on the court is just as important. Much of this positioning depends on the norms for players’ roles, which remain consistent across teams at all levels. The two outside hitters start opposite one another, the two middle blockers start opposite one another, and the setter starts opposite the right-side hitter1. Once these starting positions are set, players rotate throughout the game in a clockwise fashion on every side out point2. The choice of where to initially position the players within this clockwise rotation has tremendous strategic importance and can impact the team’s chances of winning.
Choosing a volleyball team’s starting rotation is, in many ways, similar to choosing a batting order in baseball. In much the same way baseball managers position their best hitters near the top of the order, volleyball coaches will rotate their lineups forward or backward so that their best servers can serve early and often. A team’s best rotations also tend to occur when their strongest hitters are in the front row, or when their best blockers and defenders are matched up against their opponent’s strongest hitters. That being said, a coach’s decision about starting rotation simplifies down to two questions: (1) in which rotations does a team have the greatest chance of scoring points, and (2) how do teams get to those rotations most often? In this paper, I will determine the ideal starting rotation for each of the NCAA women’s volleyball teams in the 2024 Sweet Sixteen this Thursday. Additionally, for the teams that have been starting in a sub-optimal rotation, I will show how much additional value they could potentially get out of their starting lineup simply by optimizing the starting rotation3.
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