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Published on

By Dean Lowery ’27, Alex Jessey ‘28, Benjamin Ross ’28, Joe Parmigiani ‘28, Christian Arnold ‘28

Introduction

Georgia got it done when they needed to, taking down the Volunteers 31-17 this past Saturday. Additionally, we saw BYU take a massive loss to Kansas, of all teams. This week will put a ton on display, most notably the noontime kick between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers. It's hard to believe that the selection will happen in a little over two weeks.

Three Big Games

#5 Indiana @ #2 Ohio St., Columbus, Ohio, Ohio Stadium

As mentioned earlier, the B1G has been waiting for this game it seems like for weeks. The winner of this game is almost certainly going to be joining Oregon in the championship game, with potential #1 seed in the playoff stakes on the line.

Keys for the Hoosiers: We’ve been waiting for this one for a while. Indiana has been flawless and dominant this season, but this will be their first true challenge. A spot in the playoff is on the line for the Hoosiers, along with an opportunity to prove to the nation that Coach Cignetti is building something special in Bloomington. All eyes are on Indiana, but in reality, they have nothing to lose. Show up in Columbus, play their game, and the Rourke-led Indiana team has a chance to earn the biggest win in their history.

Keys for the Buckeyes: In OSU’s matchup against Oregon, QB Will Howard choked under pressure in the final moments. With a chance at redemption here, and an opportunity to lock up a trip to the B1G Championship Game, the Buckeyes will be looking to Howard for leadership and execution against a rolling Indiana team. With the crowd on their side, execution is the name of the game. Effective drives on offense and tough defense will be enough for Ohio State to emerge as a true candidate for the national title.

#14 Brigham Young @ #21 Arizona St., Tempe, Arizona, Mountain America Stadium

Huge game for the Big XII. Arizona St. has the chance to jump into the playoff conversation, as they would move ahead of BYU in the standings and take the final spot in the Big XII title game for the moment. BYU also gets a chance to bounce back after a disappointing loss at Kansas.

Keys for the Cougars: BYU had a firm grip on the playoff, but a loss to Kansas derailed those hopes. With Colorado gaining momentum, now is the time for BYU to show the Big 12 what they’re made of. If they want to be playing come January, the Cougars need to win out, and this won’t be an easy task. Competing against a strong ASU team with momentum on their side, BYU’s strong defense needs to come to play, and they’ll need to put some points on the board to stabilize what could end up as a meltdown for the ages.

Keys for the Sun Devils: Momentum. The best player any team can have, and right now he’s playing for the Sun Devils. Coming off an upset over ranked Kansas State, ASU hosts BYU with a three-game win streak. Emerging as a challenger in the Big 12, a win here could put ASU in line for a shot at the Big 12 Championship. Riding the wave into this one, the Sun Devils will need a stellar performance from star RB Cam Skattebo and strong defensive play to come out of this one victorious.

#19 Army @ #6 Notre Dame, Bronx, New York, Yankee Stadium

Ah, yes. Finally. We get to see if the Black Knights are all-that. Let’s see what they can do.

Keys for the Black Knights: Play your brand of ball. If Army is to have a chance at winning this game, it’s going to have to be an ugly one. They must play their brand of smashmouth football if they are to emerge victorious. 40 minutes of possession and winning the turnover battle will be bellwethers for the Black Knights.

Keys for the Fighting Irish: Overpower the opponent through the air. Riley Leonard has quietly
been one of the most consistent quarterbacks this season, and Notre Dame can ride his arm to
the playoff with a strong game this week.

Three Big Players

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado Buffaloes @ Kansas Jayhawks

STATS: 74 REC, 911 YDS, 9 TD, 3 INT, FF

WHY HE SHOULD BE THE HEISMAN: He’s been the best player on a Colorado team that wasn’t even considered a bowl-ready team this year and now is in a position to be in the College Football Playoff. He’s done it on both sides of the ball, putting together the best two-way season since Charles Woodson in ’97.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State Broncos @ Wyoming Cowboys

STATS: 256 CAR, 1,893 YDS, 26 TD, 7.4 YPC

WHY HE SHOULD BE THE HEISMAN: He’s been the most statistically dominant player in college football this year. He’s put up incredible stat lines, week in and week out. He’s also led the Broncos to a probable playoff birth. The only problem might be that this guy plays on the West Coast.

Cam Ward, QB, Miami Hurricanes Vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

STATS: 3,494 YDS, 32 TD, 6 INT, 89.4 QBR

WHY HE SHOULD BE THE HEISMAN: He’s been the best quarterback in the country, no doubt about that. He’s led comeback after comeback, and he has the Hurricanes in position to make a return to the College Football Playoff. A strong finish would make Ward tough to top in New York.

Three Teams to Watch

Well, well, well. Who is going to occupy the coveted fifth automatic bid? We might start using the term “Cinderella” in football.

#13 Boise State Broncos (9-1) @ Wyoming

The Broncos just keep on going. If they win out, they’re almost guaranteed a spot in the playoff. Furthermore, things could get super interesting if Army manages to win out and both Boise St and Army jump the Big XII champion.

#19 Army Black Knights. Cougars (9-0) @ #6 Notre Dame

Mentioned above.

Sorry, but there is no third team. Looks like these are the last two standing.

Three Value Bets (15-8-1 on the season)

Wake Forest (+24) @ Miami

Texas A&M (-2.5) @ Auburn

Colorado (-3) @ Kansas

Published on

By Dean Lowery ’27, Alex Jessey ‘28, Benjamin Ross ’28, Joe Parmigiani ‘28, Christian Arnold ‘28

Introduction

Wow. Georgia goes down. Miami goes down. So much is happening, and yet we are so close to the finish. Perhaps the SEC isn’t as good as we thought. Or maybe everyone in the SEC is better than everyone else. Big things to come as the Bulldogs fight for their playoff chances.

Three big games

#23 Missouri @ #21 South Carolina, Columbia, SC, Williams-Brice Stadium

While both of these teams might be out of playoff contention, this would be a nice win in a conference that is becoming increasingly competitive.

Keys for the Tigers: Many question why Missouri is currently ranked. This is their chance to prove their place and add a strong win to their resume. Mizzou’ needs another strong performance from their solid defense, and the offense led by Brady Cook will need to be productive to emerge victorious.

Keys for the Gamecocks: It’s hard to play in Columbia, and South Carolina will have both the crowd and momentum propelling them on. Sellers has been a dynamic QB this season, and with an offense full of weapons ready to fire at any moment, South Carolina will be hoping they can take down the Tigers for another big-ranked win.

#7 Tennessee @ #12 Georgia, Athens, Georgia, Sanford Stadium

This classic rivalry brings a little extra flavor this year, given that this is essentially an elimination game. Furthermore, the Volunteers have a chance to snag an almost guaranteed place in the SEC championship game, something that would all but lock up a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Keys for the Volunteers: Tennessee hasn’t beaten Georgia since 2016, and playing in Athens is no easy task. To get over the hump and pick up a huge road win, Tennessee may need to rely on its scoring defense (fifth in the FBS in points allowed and yards allowed per game). The shaky situation at quarterback (Iamaleava is questionable for the game) creates a lot of uncertainty.

Keys for the Bulldogs: The Bulldogs have the nation’s longest home winning streak; looking at this game from a historical perspective, it should be an easy win for Georgia. But Georgia’s in an unfamiliar place: they’re a 2-loss team now, and another loss will likely eliminate them from CFP contention. Georgia needs to pick up the pieces from an embarrassing loss at Ole Miss, particularly on offense. If quarterback Carson Beck and the Georgia offense start to finally roll again, a win is likely.

#20 Clemson @ Pitt, Pittsburgh, PA, Acrisure Stadium

Somehow, someway, Clemson is still alive. This is going to be a test, however, as the Panthers have been solid all season long before falling apart against SMU. Look for this to be a tight one.

Keys for the Tigers: Stymie the Pitt offense. A skilled, mature Clemson defensive line could flex its muscles and flatten Pittsburgh’s offense. The Tigers’ quarterback Cade Klubnik will also need a big game, and certainly avoid throwing costly interceptions, which the Panthers’ defense could cause. At 6-1 in ACC play, Clemson could turn its season around with a strong finish and appearance in the conference championship game.

Keys for the Panthers: Stop the bleeding and fix the offense. This game was a potential huge ACC showdown, but it’s lost its luster slightly due to Pitt’s recent struggles. The Panthers are still alive in the ACC race and need to pick up this home win. Perhaps the Panthers will need to rely on their defense as well: a repeat of the Syracuse game (3 pick-sixes in the first half) would do wonders.

Three big players

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado Buffaloes vs Utah Utes

The do-it-all star is still leading the Heisman race. Hunter is approaching 1000 yards and 10 TDs on the offensive side and is one of the best cornerbacks in college football.

Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon Ducks @ Wisconsin Badgers

Gabriel has moved up to second regarding betting odds after throwing 3 TDs and leading his team to another dominant win last week. Oregon is rolling behind Gabriel and is looking to lock up the #1 seed in the CFB playoffs.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise St. Broncos @ San Jose St. Spartans

I guess Jeanty took it personally that we took him off our 3 big players list because he exploded last week for 220 yards and 3 TDs. He is putting up historical numbers this year and is shaping up to be one of the finalists in New York. He has a big game this week vs San Jose St. for his team's playoff hopes but as long as Jeanty wakes up, the Broncos like their odds.

Three teams to watch

Well, well, well. Who is going to occupy the coveted fifth automatic bid? We might start using the term “Cinderella” in football.

#13 Boise State Broncos (8-1) @ San Jose St.

The Broncos got major props from the committee, given that they were ranked five spots ahead of the next best Group-of-Five team. The Broncos held off Nevada last week and visited San Jose St. in another Mountain West showdown.

#18 Washington St. Cougars (8-1) @ New Mexico

Washington St. has quietly risen the polls, rising up to #18 this week. Their one loss is to Boise St., and it was pretty emphatic, so it would likely take a couple of slip-ups from the Broncos to give the Cougars room to prevail. Nonetheless, they are beginning to turn heads.

#24 Army Black Knights (9-0) @ #8 Notre Dame (Nov. 23)

Woah. The Committee gave the Black Knights no respect and made it abundantly clear that Army will have to win out to earn a spot in this year’s playoff. The Knights have a bye week to prepare for their biggest game (Nov. 23) against the Fighting Irish.

3 value bets (15-5-1 on the season)

BYU (-2.5) vs Kansas

Texas(-12) @ Arkansas

Oregon(-14) @ Wisconsin

The “Dartmouth” Poll

Well, the AP Poll and the CFP Poll are out, and both have interesting takes. Here’s what our team came up with.

Published on

By Dean Lowery ’27, Alex Jessey ‘28, Benjamin Ross ’28, Joe Parmigiani ‘28, Christian Arnold ‘28

 

Introduction

Ouch. A lot of teams fell hard last week. Clemson and Iowa St. took the most damage, and Penn St. humiliated themselves twice on the goal line. Indiana seems like they might be well inside the bubble at this point, after another dominating performance. More drama to look forward to this week.

Three Big Games

#2 Georgia @ #18 Ole Miss, Oxford, Mississippi, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Well, it seems like this is Ole Miss’ last stand. The Rebs will have to capitalize on Carson Beck’s mistakes and consistently make plays down the field if they want to keep this one close. This is a must-win game for the home team.

Keys for the Bulldogs: Carson Beck has struggled in recent weeks, with six interceptions in his last two games. Coming into another tough matchup in a hostile environment, Georgia needs their defense to shut down the Ole Miss passing game and the offense needs to come to play.

Keys for the Rebels: Jaxon Dart remains one of the nation’s most productive quarterbacks, and he’ll need to prove it against Georgia. Receiver Tre Harris has performed well for the Rebels, and they need to show up on Saturday to keep the season alive.

#11 Alabama @ #14 Louisiana St., Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Tiger Stadium

The play-in game of all play-in games. The classic rivalry. LSU has been dominating at home (especially at night) and will look to dash DeBoer’s hopes of taking the Crimson Tide back to the playoff in his maiden voyage with the team.

Keys for the Crimson Tide: Coming off a dominant victory against Missouri, Alabama marches into Death Valley to take on LSU in a classic rivalry matchup. Jalen Milroe hasn’t lived up to expectations this season, and he needs to put together a legacy game to lead the Crimson Tide to victory.

Keys for the Tigers: Just when LSU seemed to be rolling, they suffered a big defeat against A&M. QB Nussmeier has emerged as a potential top QB in the draft, and with the crowd behind them, the Tigers will be hoping for a statement win this season with only 1 loss in conference play.

South Carolina @ #24 Vanderbilt, FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee

The two biggest surprises of the SEC season are facing off, and the winner of this football game could be headed straight toward a New Year’s Six bowl. Should be a fun one in Nashville.

Keys for the Gamecocks: Just a few plays away from being 7-1, South Carolina will have their hands full with the Commodores. 2nd in the SEC in sacks could be huge; if the Gamecocks’ defense is able to disrupt Diego Pavia, Vandy could very well fall apart on offense.

Keys for the Commodores: Vanderbilt’s defense is coming off a great performance on the road against Auburn. In another game that could be low-scoring and come down to a late-game drive down the field, QB Diego Pavia’s passing will be on full display. A win against pesky South Carolina will cement Vanderbilt as a top-25 team.

Three Big Players

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado Buffaloes @ Texas Tech

Travis had a bye week, yet still comfortably remains in the Heisman lead. The Buffs will need a solid performance from their do-it-all star, given the win that the Red Raiders are coming off of.

Cam Ward, QB, Miami Hurricanes, @ Georgia Tech

This guy is still amazing. For a few moments, it seemed as though the Hurricanes would lose their undefeated record against Duke, at home nonetheless. Then, as always, Ward came alive. Throwing for 400 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception, Ward remained poised as his Hurricanes came back. He now boasts the best QBR in the nation and will look to add to his resume this week in Atlanta.

Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon Ducks Vs. Maryland

Gabriel has some work to do if he wants to catch the top 2 but the opportunities are there as the Ducks look to go undefeated and win the conference championship in their inaugural season in the B1G. He goes against a struggling Maryland team this week.

Three teams to watch

Well, well, well. Who is going to occupy the coveted fifth automatic bid? We might start using the term “Cinderella” in football.

#12 Boise State Broncos (7-1) Vs. Nevada

The Broncos got major props from the committee, given that they were ranked nine spots ahead of the next best Group-of-Five team. The Broncos dominated San Diego St. throughout that game, and they look to keep it rolling against Nevada.

#21 Washington St. (7-1) Vs. Utah State

Washington St. has quietly risen the polls, finally cracking the rankings this week. Their one loss is to Boise St., and it was pretty emphatic, so it would likely take a couple of slip-ups from the Broncos to give the Cougars room to prevail. Nonetheless, they are beginning to turn heads.

#25 Army Black Knights (8-0) @ N. Texas

Woah. The Committee gave the Black Knights no respect and made it abundantly clear that Army will have to win out to earn a spot in this year’s playoff. The Knights will get a nice road test before their bye week to prepare for their biggest game (Nov. 23) against the Fighting Irish

Three Value Bets (14-3 on the season)

Oklahoma @ #24 Missouri (+3)

BYU(-3) @ Utah

Iowa State(-3) @ Kansas

The “Dartmouth” Poll

Well, the AP Poll and the CFP Poll are out, and both have interesting takes. Here’s what our team came up with.

 

Published on

By Dean Lowery ’27, Alex Jessey ‘28, Benjamin Ross ’28, Joe Parmigiani ‘28, Christian Arnold ‘28

Introduction

Things are getting very real, very quickly. Texas A&M is now the last undefeated SEC team in conference play. Notre Dame walked all over Navy. Texas managed to survive in Nashville. Now, all eyes turn towards Penn St.-Ohio St. We all wonder if the Nittany Lions are ready to step into their moment.

Three Big Games

#4 Ohio St. @ #3 Penn St., University Park, Pennsylvania, Beaver Stadium

It's a huge, classic showdown in the Big Ten. Penn State has been eyeing this game all season, for good reason. Ohio State comes into Happy Valley as the favorite, having won a record 7 straight in the series. Penn State’s star QB Drew Allar remains a game-time decision, and his performance might tip the scales in the Nittany Lions’ favor.

Keys for the Buckeyes: Will Howard must remain poised. The stakes are high for the Buckeyes, even if they are favored. Early mistakes from the Ohio St. offense could lead to this becoming a pressure-packed second half.

Keys for the Nittany Lions: Forget the past. This year is not the same as the years past. Penn St. has to look beyond the name brand of Ohio State and focus on winning the line of scrimmage.

#2 Georgia Vs. Florida, Jacksonville, Florida, EverBank Stadium

The Jacksonville rendition of this storied rivalry will be put on pause for a couple of years, with meetings in Atlanta and Tampa recently announced for the next two seasons. Coming off a bye, Georgia is on the rise, playing their best football and looking like the team to beat in the SEC. However, Florida, playing the most difficult schedule in the country, is a respectable 4-3 coming off a big win over Kentucky. Can the Gators topple the unsuspecting Bulldogs?

Keys for the Bulldogs: Play their game. The ‘Dawgs have won six out of the last seven matchups, and should easily handle the Gators.

Keys for the Gators: Ride the wave of emotion, and the wave of DJ Lagway. A resounding 48-20 win against Kentucky last week could perhaps provide enough hope for the Gators to make this one a game.

#18 Pittsburgh @ #20 Southern Methodist, Dallas, Texas, Gerald J. Ford Stadium

It’s the ACC showdown nobody expected, in the heart of Texas. Pitt is coming off of a huge confidence-building rout of Syracuse, absolutely picking apart the Syracuse offense with 3 pick-sixes in the first half alone. SMU has been finding ways to win in their first year in the ACC, coming off a big overtime win at Duke. The winner of this matchup will have a very real shot at the ACC championship and the College Football Playoff; the loser will likely watch from the sidelines.

Keys for the Panthers: Get Desmond Reid going. The Panthers have struggled to establish a run game throughout ACC play, and need to get something going at the line of scrimmage to open up deep threats.

Keys for the Mustangs: Ride the offense. SMU has averaged 50.5 points per game at home over their last 12, and this offense seems like it has no intentions of slowing down anytime soon.

Three Big Players

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado Buffaloes, BYE

Travis jumped into the spotlight, replacing Ashton Jeanty at the top spot, after a nine-reception, 153-yard, two-touchdown performance. The man is perhaps the best offensive and defensive player in the Big XII and is reminiscent of ‘97 Heisman winner, Charles Woodson. The Buffaloes are now ranked, but more team success down the stretch could be critical for Hunter’s cause.

Cam Ward, QB, Miami Hurricanes, Vs. Duke

Cam Ward has been the most solid player on this list, however, faltered in a huge rivalry game, failing to put a touchdown on the board. However, his Heisman campaign might fall squarely on his performance in the ACC Championship in Charlotte.

Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon Ducks @ Michigan

The captain of the best team in the country. A classic Heisman candidate, Gabriel has been extremely composed in his leadership of the Ducks. Against Illinois, Gabriel led the Ducks to a 38-9 victory, tallying three touchdowns to go along with one interception. He’ll receive a nice test in the coming week, as he leads the number one team in the country into the Big House.

Three Teams to Watch

Well, well, well. Who is going to occupy the coveted fifth automatic bid? We might start using the term “Cinderella” in football.

Boise State Broncos (6-1) Vs. San Diego St.

Boise St. earned a huge victory against Mountain West rival UNLV and will look to cruise for the rest of the season. Perhaps a rematch with the Rebels later in the season is the only thing standing between the Broncos and a playoff berth.

Army Black Knights (7-0) Vs. Air Force

A bye week for the Black Knights gave them time to think. A questionably small margin against East Carolina gives fans reason for concern, but the Black Knights look to the future and will be keeping a close watch on the Navy-Notre Dame. What Army does have going for them is that they’re the only undefeated team on this list, and that could serve as critical when it comes to decision time.

Washington St. (7-1) OFF

Washington St. has quietly risen the polls, finally cracking the rankings this week. Their one loss is to Boise St., and pretty emphatic at that, so it would likely take a couple of slip-ups from the Broncos to give the Cougars room to prevail. Nonetheless, they are beginning to turn heads.

Three Value Bets

(11-3-1 on the season)

Minnesota (-3) @ #24 Illinois

#10 Texas A&M (-3) @ South Carolina

#13 Indiana (-8) @ Michigan St.

The "Dartmouth" Poll

Well, the AP Poll stinks. And the CFP poll is still weeks away. Here’s what our team came up with.

Published on

By Dean Lowery ’27, Alex Jessey ‘28, Benjamin Ross ’28, Joe Parmigiani ‘28, Christian Arnold ‘28

Introduction

Woah. Woah. Woah. We weren’t kidding. The Third Weekend in October was EPIC. Georgia
took three steps forward, and Tennessee took two. Texas took a huge step back, and Alabama
might’ve just stepped backward into the Sarlacc pit. More big games are coming this week, but
the picture is getting clearer.

Three Big Games

#12 Notre Dame @ #24 Navy, East Rutherford, New Jersey, MetLife Stadium

This is Navy’s chance. They control their destiny completely, but this will almost certainly be
their toughest game before a potential game in the College Football Playoff. However, Notre
Dame has rebounded well ever since that NIU loss. An uphill battle for the Midshipmen for sure.


Keys for the Fighting Irish: Notre Dame may be surprised that Navy is ranked, and it's vital that
ND respects this ranking. The Irish are going to need to execute on all sides of the ball, and
they’ve done that these past few weeks. Can Leonard and Love lead Notre Dame to a ranked
win that would benefit their resume, or will we see an upset for the ages?


Keys for the Midshipmen: Navy have been close to flawless this season, dominating everyone
in their path. All-around QB Horvath will be looking to add to his 20 total TDs this season, and
Navy will want to keep their chances for the CFP alive. Can the Midshipmen create another
Miracle at the Meadowlands?

#5 Texas @ #25 Vanderbilt, Nashville, Tennessee, FirstBank Stadium

Woah. This game has suddenly become all-important. While Texas is “the new kid on the block”
in the SEC, they certainly have everything going for them in this matchup. However, the loser of
this game is probably not going to make the SEC Championship, which would be devastating
for the Longhorns’ playoff chances.

Keys for the Commodores: QB Pavia has emerged as a star, and Vandy is riding the wave after
beating Alabama. With Texas nursing their loss against Georgia, will the Commodores be able
to frustrate the Longhorns and keep the dream alive, or will they show everyone it was just a
fluke?

#8 Louisiana St. @ #14 Texas A&M, College Station, Texas, Kyle Field

Well, somehow these are the two teams still undefeated in SEC play. This game almost feels
like a play-in, such that the winner will likely make the playoff, while the loser is going to be
mostly out of the picture.


Keys for the Tigers: Nussmeier needs to be accurate. The Heisman hopeful has only completed
55% in SEC play, and the Tigers can ill afford turnovers in this hostile environment. However, he
has generated tons of chunk plays on third-and-long in conference play, so it seems the Tigers’
chances rest on his shoulders.


Keys for the Aggies: Establishing the ground game. LSU gave up just 38 rushing yards last
week against Arkansas, and the Aggies need to be productive on the ground to be competitive.

3 big players

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State Broncos @ UNLV

Jeanty was off last week but plays his biggest game of the season this week. A lot of eyes will
be on this game, so he’s going to need to be his typical: excellent.

Cam Ward, QB, Miami Hurricanes Vs. Florida St.

Well, the ‘Canes did it again. As did Ward. He was excellent with 4 touchdowns and zero
interceptions. But the trap games don’t end with Louisville. Even though ESPN’s FPI gives
Miami a 91.5% chance to win, this is a rivalry of all rivalries. The ‘Noles will want this one
desperately.

Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon Ducks Vs. Illinois

The captain of the best team in the country. A classic Heisman candidate, Gabriel has been
extremely composed in his leadership of the Ducks. Completing a whopping 77% of his passes,
Gabriel has been on the money almost every week. The Ducks host Illinois in a critical B1G
showdown.

Three Teams to Watch

Well, well, well. Who is going to occupy the coveted fifth automatic bid? We might start using the term “Cinderella” in football.

Boise State Broncos (5-1) @ UNLV

As mentioned previously, this one is going to be huge. UNLV can reenter the conversation and
would hand Boise St. their first conference loss while avoiding one of their own. On the other
hand, Boise St. has a chance to knock UNLV out of playoff contention. Should be a fun one.

Navy Midshipmen (6-0) Vs. Notre Dame

Listed above.

Army Black Knights (7-0) OFF

A bye week for the Black Knights gives them time to think. A questionably small margin against
East Carolina gives fans reason for concern, but the Black Knights look to the future and will be
keeping a close watch on the Navy-Notre Dame.

3 value bets

(8-3-1 on the season)

Boise St(-3.5) @ UNLV

Indiana(-6.5) vs Washington

PSU (-6.5) @ Wisconsin

The “Dartmouth” Poll

Well, the AP Poll stinks. And the CFP poll is still weeks away. Here’s what our team came up with.

Published on

By Dean Lowery ’27, Alex Jessey ‘28, Benjamin Ross ’28, Joe Parmigiani ‘28, Christian Arnold ‘28

Introduction

Well, Oregon now has the biggest win of the season. The Mighty Ducks made some special teams mistakes, but ultimately, they were able to make a stand when it mattered. This week features a tremendous pair of SEC games. The third weekend of October is sure to delight fans around the country.

Three Big Games

#7 Alabama @ #11 Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, Neyland Stadium

Well, well, well. “The Third Weekend in October” might just be a must win game if these teams want to make it to Atlanta. Neyland will most certainly be rocking, but can Tennessee contain Jalen Milroe?

Keys for the Crimson Tide: After close games and an upset loss, Alabama will look to bounce back, but that is no easy task. They’ll need to cut down on turnovers, and their offensive weapons, Milroe and Williams, will need to be productive.

Keys for the Vols: Things haven’t been easy for the Vols in recent weeks either. If they want to beat the Crimson Tide, Tennessee is going to need stellar QB play from Iamaleava, continued success on defense, and a lot of grit.

#5 Georgia @ #1 Texas, Austin, Texas, DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

The SEC’s newest rivalry is certainly bound to be a great one for years to come. However, this game holds massive implications for this year’s playoff race. Both of these teams will either take a huge step back or forward in their playoff chances depending on this game’s outcome.

Keys for the Dawgs: Georgia is coming into another hostile environment, this time looking for more success. Will they be able to prove their might as one of the nation’s best teams, or will they fall again?

Keys for the Longhorns: Texas have cruised this season. They are undoubtedly the country’s number 1 team, but they need to prove it this week. Quinn Ewers, the explosive offense, and their dominant defense will need to show out on national television.

Nebraska @ #16 Indiana, Bloomington, Indiana, Memorial Stadium

Football, eh? The Hooisers have completely gone under the B1G radar, and are in a position to compete for the B1G crown. However, they’re largely unproven. That being said, they’ve been convincing in all their matchups to date.

Keys for the Huskers: It’s the biggest game yet for star freshman QB Dylan Raiola. He needs to bounce back from a rough outing last week against Rutgers. The biggest challenge for the Huskers may be stopping Indiana’s offense: Indiana leads the Big Ten in points per game and total yards.

Keys for the Hoosiers: Indiana has looked flawless through six games, and finally faces a true test at home. To continue their run to the playoff, they’ll need to clean up on defense against a tough Huskers offense. Indiana has never trailed this season, and they’ll need their prolific offense to keep that streak alive.

3 big players

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State Broncos @ UNLV (Oct. 25)

No doubt it's the favorite at this point. 217 yards and a touchdown add to an already-loaded resume. Barring injury, this man will win the Heisman trophy. Huge matchup this week though, and his team will need all 215 pounds.

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado Buffaloes @ Arizona

The potential #1 overall pick has been playing his heart out. A home loss to K-State hurts the Buffs’ Big 12 chances in a major way. 34/40 from Sanders ain’t too shabby either. Sanders needs a bounce-back game this week at Arizona.

Cam Ward, QB, Miami Hurricanes @ Louisville

Sneaky trap game here. The ‘Canes should be weary of Louisville, they’ve been giant killers before. Ward does have the name-brand advantage over the other two contenders for the Heisman. Could be a factor down the stretch.

Three Teams to Watch

Well, well, well. Who is going to occupy the coveted fifth automatic bid? We might start using the term “Cinderella” in football.

Boise State Broncos (5-1) @ UNLV (Oct. 25)

As mentioned previously, this one is going to be huge. UNLV can reenter the conversation, and would hand Boise St. their first conference loss, while avoiding one of their own. On the other hand, Boise St. has a chance to knock UNLV out of playoff contention. Should be a fun one.

Navy Midshipmen (5-0) vs Charlotte

Coming off the bye week Navy has finally gotten the recognition they deserve coming in at 25th in the polls. They look to continue their dominance this week vs Charlotte before hosting Notre Dame the  following weekend in a game of ranked foes.

Army Black Knights (6-0) vs. ECU

Army, similar to the Navy, popped in the polls this week in the 23 slot. While Boise St is the favorite for the 5th automatic bid, don't count out the Black Knights. They have yet to have a game with 17 points and we don't expect that to change this week vs ECU.

3 value bets

(6-3 on the season)

Army (-16) vs East Carolina

Missouri (-4) vs Auburn

Kansas St. (-2.5) @ West Virginia

The “Dartmouth” Poll

Well, the AP Poll stinks. And the CFP poll is still weeks away. Here’s what our team came up with.

Published on

By Dean Lowery '27, Alex Jessey ‘28, and Benjamin Ross ’28

Introduction

Well, we told you so. Upsets did happen. Alabama fell. Tennessee fell. Michigan fell. Southern
Cal fell. Like dominoes, the upsets seemingly compounded one after another last Saturday. The
AP Poll shuffled all over the place, with undefeated teams as hot a commodity as milk during a
hurricane—another big week upcoming, folks

...continue reading "College Football Week Seven Outlook – A Game of Threes"

Published on

By Dean Lowery '27, Alex Jessey ‘28, and Benjamin Ross ’28

Introduction

Woah. What a game we had last week in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide claim the top spot (for
now), and a little bit of doubt begins to creep into the minds of Bulldog fans. Also, Ole Miss
takes a huge loss. Looking ahead to week six, the stage is set for a calmer set of matchups.
However, you never know what could be lurking around the corner.

...continue reading "College Football Week Six Outlook – A Game of Threes"

Published on

By Ari Nathanson '26

Introduction

In 1989, Jimmy Johnson took over as coach of the Dallas Cowboys. He inherited a depleted roster on the heels of a 3-13 campaign, its third consecutive losing season after a still-NFL-record 20 consecutive winning seasons. Johnson had a clear strategy for improvement: amass as much draft capital as possible. However, in order to capitalize on his bounty of picks, he needed to know how to properly value them. At Johnson’s request, vice president Mike McCoy put together the NFL’s first draft pick trade value chart. It assigned the first overall pick an arbitrary value of 3,000 and a decreasing value to each successive pick. Using the chart, the Cowboys completed a whirlwind of trades in an attempt to exploit perceived market inefficiencies, drafting 42 players from 1991 to 1993. McCoy created the chart based on past trade behavior and his own gut instinct—not using advanced analytics. Nevertheless, it led the Cowboys to resounding success. Headlined by homegrown talent including Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, and Emmitt Smith, Dallas won three Super Bowls in the early 1990s. Soon after, the chart became a fixture of draft rooms around the league. Whereas previously teams had traded picks arbitrarily (as acknowledged by former Cowboys executive Gil Brandt), they now treated pick-trading as a more exact science. Yet Johnson’s chart was not without its critics. In 2005, business professors Cade Massey of the University of Pennsylvania Wharton and Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago Booth published “The Loser’s Curse.” They presented a compelling argument that NFL teams—even after the spread of Johnson’s chart—significantly overestimated the value of picking high in the draft. They also criticized the going discount rate (the cost of exchanging a future pick for a present pick) as exorbitantly high. In the years since, a plethora of alternative charts have been developed, claiming to more accurately reflect picks’ true value. Yet according to Bill Belichick, “everybody probably [still] uses about the same value chart.” How exactly did the proliferation of the Jimmy Johnson trade chart affect the draft pick trade market? Did criticism of the Johnson chart, exemplified by the seminal 2005 Massey-Thaler study, change NFL teams’ thinking? What other events, if any, had an impact? In this paper, I will investigate all of these questions through an in-depth analysis of the draft pick trade market over the past 40 years.

...continue reading "Exploring the Evolution of the NFL Draft Pick Trade Market Over Time"

Published on

By Atul Venkatesh '27

Evaluating player performance is one of the most critical concepts in pro football. One method to do so is Approximate Value (AV), where players are given a seasonal score based on accolades and statistics that accumulate throughout their careers. While AV reflects a player's performance historically, it lacks insight into their current worth. To address this issue, I have modified AV to create the Present AV (PAV) statistic, which shows the current value of over 1800 players through the 2022 NFL season. I have also created a draft value chart which gives the expected PAV of every draft pick. With both of these metrics, it is now possible to evaluate past trades, determine the appropriate draft compensation for a player, and use a statistics-based method to determine the most valuable players in the league.

...continue reading "PAVing the Way for the Future – A Model That Determines Player Value and Evaluates Trades in the NFL"