By Tyler Stoff
The geopolitical situation in Ukraine may not seem especially connected to current concerns in the Arctic region, but the energy crisis emanating from Europe causes the two to be linked. This is what energy researcher Adam Pearson, a Transatlantic and Konrad von Molkte Fellow at the Ecologic Institute, explained during his presentation at the Dickey Center entitled “The Energy Crisis in Ukraine: What it means for the U.S., Europe and the Arctic.”
Pearson divided his talk into three sections. First, he supplied an overview of the geopolitical crisis and recent Russian intervention in Ukraine. Explaining its roots in the Russian stranglehold on natural gas in Europe, he noted how Russia cut off Hungary’s supply of natural gas in 2009 for thirteen days prior to the current dispute between Ukraine and Russia, which is over the amount of money owed for the consumption of natural gas. Feeling opposing pressure from the European Union and Russia, Ukraine first signed a free trade pact with the EU before changing course and moving closer to Russia. This precipitated the riots that brought down Ukraine’s highly centralized, corrupt government.
Though Pearson noted that Ukraine’s east is supportive of closer ties with Russia due to its ethnic and cultural heritage, he stated that “Ukraine was annexed by Russia” in reference to the Crimea’s move from Ukrainian to Russian control. Though Western observers frequently state that Russia’s increased aggression in response to fears of NATO’s possible expansion into Ukraine are overblown, Pearson responded that every European Union member state has joined NATO, and Ukraine’s free trade pack with the EU was a possible precursor to EU membership. In actuality, several EU member states have not joined NATO, but it is true that all former Eastern Bloc states that have become EU members have also joined NATO.
Following the political background of Ukraine, Pearson detailed its energy situation and that of the rest of Europe. One quarter of Europe’s natural gas comes from Russia, and much of it passes through Ukraine. Europe’s reliance on natural gas is increasing, and “this is going to get worse over time,” Pearson said. Russia could easily cut gas lines to Ukraine and, by extension, all of Europe. While alternative energy sources such as renewables hold promise for electricity, natural gas is the primary source of heating in Europe. “The EU does not have a slam dunk for the heating sector,” notes Pearson, and Europe cannot easily lessen its reliance on Russian gas. Alternatives such as fracking for natural gas in Western Europe are also not possible due to legal and geologic factors. Pearson did state that the Russian economy is completely dependent on oil and gas exports, but Europe’s inability to wean itself off of those exports and thus impose far-reaching sanctions means Russian behavior is unlikely to be altered.
For his final section, Pearson moved to the Arctic, explaining that China and India are now trying to increase their involvement in the Arctic Council, a body that addresses Arctic issues. Russia sees the Arctic Ocean as the United States sees the Gulf of Mexico. Russia is torn on the efforts of China and India to become involved in Arctic affairs because of both its interests in
preserving the Arctic for energy exploration exclusively by regional nations such as itself, and its interests in maintaining good relationships with China, a major trade partner. Russia has been a cooperative member of the Arctic Council, and the United States has largely prevented the Ukrainian situation from interfering with its diplomatic successes with Russia there.
In his concluding remarks, Pearson emphasized that Ukraine needs capable governance and monetary support to remain intact. Arctic cooperation between the West and Russia may have been slightly strained by events in Ukraine, but it will return soon. Sanctions may only accelerate Russian economic partnerships with Asian nations. Though Pearson did not make direct links between the Arctic and Ukraine beyond its possible effects on diplomacy with Russia, the possibility of lessened Russian claims in the Arctic in response to better ties with China cannot be ignored.