Joseph Notis '21
On March 11, 2020, the NBA suspended its season in response to the coronavirus pandemic. With no clear return date for basketball’s highest level of competition, the status of the each team's remaining 15 to 19 games for each team is. Among the multitude of theories on how the NBA season will progress is that the regular season is over and the playoffs will begin as soon as the league resumes play. This leads to the question, who would benefit if there are no more regular season games?
To answer this question, I compared each team’s current win percentage to their projected win percentage. I used the projected final record from FiveThirtyEight’s forecast based on RAPTOR player ratings. The graph below shows each team’s current win percentages compared to their projected win percentages:
Teams above the dotted line are at a lower winning percentage than their projected winning percentage, which means that FiveThirtyEight's projections expect that team to perform better in the remaining games than their overall season performance up to March 12. Teams below the line are over-performing their projections, so they are projected to lose more games, lowering their winning percentage. Most teams are slightly above or below the line, indicating a small one to three game difference between their projected final record and their current record.
The Toronto Raptors are a notable deviation from the general trend of hugging the diagonal line, and FiveThirtyEight's predictions look bleak for the defending champions. If the NBA completes the schedule and the RAPTOR projections are correct, the Raptors would only win one or two of their remaining eighteen scheduled games and lose their home-court advantage for the first two rounds in the Eastern Conference playoffs. However, this scenario is highly unlikely given the team's performance this season and remaining schedule which feature games against lottery teams including the Hawks, Hornets, Pistons, and two against the Knicks.
Eastern Conference Standings
| Team | Current Record | Projected Record | Current Rank | Projected Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucks | 53-12 | 65-17 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Raptors | 46-18 | 47-35 | 2 | 6 | -4 |
| Celtics | 43-21 | 56-26 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Heat | 41-24 | 51-31 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 76ers | 39-26 | 51-31 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Pacers | 39-26 | 48-34 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Nets | 30-34 | 36-46 | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| Magic | 30-35 | 39-43 | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Wizards | 24-40 | 29-53 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Hornets | 23-42 | 28-54 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Bulls | 22-43 | 27-55 | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Knicks | 21-45 | 25-57 | 12 | 13 | -1 |
| Pistons | 20-46 | 23-59 | 13 | 14 | -1 |
| Hawks | 20-47 | 26-56 | 14 | 12 | 2 |
| Cavaliers | 19-46 | 23-59 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
Western Conference Standings
| Team | Current Record | Projected Record | Current Rank | Projected Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 49-14 | 63-19 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Clippers | 44-20 | 58-24 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Nuggets | 43-22 | 53-29 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Jazz | 41-23 | 51-31 | 4 | 5 | -1 |
| Rockets | 40-24 | 52-30 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Thunder | 40-24 | 50-32 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Mavericks | 40-27 | 48-34 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Grizzlies | 32-32 | 38-44 | 8 | 9 | -1 |
| Trail Blazers | 29-37 | 38-44 | 9 | 10 | -1 |
| Pelicans | 28-36 | 40-42 | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| Kings | 28-36 | 37-45 | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Spurs | 27-36 | 35-47 | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Suns | 26-39 | 33-49 | 13 | 13 | 0 |
| Timberwolves | 19-45 | 26-56 | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| Warriors | 15-50 | 22-60 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
The Unfinished Playoff Races
The Eastern Conference playoff race is all but wrapped up. While not all teams clinched a playoff spot, the top eight teams are far enough ahead where the only thing they have to fight for is seeding. The four through six seeds (Heat, Pacers, 76ers) are only two games apart and there's only a half-game difference between the seventh-seeded Nets and eighth-seeded Magic.
The Western Conference playoff has a closer race for the eighth and final playoff spot. The team that fills this spot could easily be affected by how the NBA schedules the remaining regular season games–if they decide to do so at all. If the regular season is already over, the eight through ten seeds in the conference would be Memphis, Portland, New Orleans. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight predicts that Memphis and New Orleans would switch position, giving the Pelicans the final playoff spot. This reveals perhaps the biggest winner and loser of the suddenly shortened schedule. With no significant change in draft pick value at play, trying to get in the playoffs is the best strategy. If the regular season's over, Memphis would be in the right place at the right time. Despite the decreasing playoff probability leading up to the season's suspension, the Grizzlies' three and a half game lead over the ninth seeded Trail Blazers and tenth seeded Pelicans would give them the last playoff spot. Based on RAPTOR player ratings, New Orleans loses a chance to make a realistic run for the eight seed. The Pelicans were rising in the standings and projections thanks to 2019 number one pick Zion Williamson's debut and instant impact on the court. As of the season's suspension, FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR projections gave the Pelicans a 60% chance to make the playoffs, the highest of the three teams in serious contention. RAPTOR projections give Memphis a 15% chance and Portland a 14% chance at being the eight seed if all scheduled games are complete. While RAPTOR favors the Pelicans in a potential playoff chase, FiveThirtyEight's ELO forecast slightly favors the Grizzlies, who have a 43% chance at making the playoffs compared the the Pelicans' 25%. With a 30-40% change in playoff chances between the two rating systems, the battle for the eighth seed in the Western Conference would be tight until the end of the scheduled regular season games. With the NBA's indefinite suspension, Memphis might be a bit lucky that their rivals were too little too late.
Lottery Picks
Current Standings for teams with a <10% Playoff Chance
(Note: Unlike the standings, "Change" is positive when a team is projected to go lower in the standings, thus giving them higher odds for one of the first three picks)
| Team | Current Rank | Projected Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 30 | 30 | 0 |
| Cavaliers | 29 | 29 | 0 |
| Timberwolves | 28 | 26 | -2 |
| Hawks | 27 | 25 | -2 |
| Pistons | 26 | 28 | 2 |
| Knicks | 25 | 27 | 2 |
| Bulls | 24 | 24 | 0 |
| Hornets | 23 | 23 | 0 |
| Wizards | 22 | 22 | 0 |
| Suns | 21 | 21 | 0 |
| Spurs | 20 | 20 | 0 |
| Kings | 19 | 18 | -1 |
When looking at "lottery teams," I considered any team with a less than ten percent chance of making the playoffs. Some teams still have a lot to play for if the NBA resumes play and completes all scheduled games. FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR predictions have Detroit dropping to the third-lowest win-total, putting them in the coveted third and final spot with the highest odds for one of the first three overall picks. If the season is already over, Minnesota would retain their position as the third team with the highest lottery odds for the top three picks. For these two teams, the NBA's decision for playing out the rest of the season could be the difference-maker between having the first pick or the fifth pick in the draft.
In addition to Detroit potentially losing out on being in the group of teams with the highest draft odds, Atlanta and New York also have a reasonable chance to enter this group. While FiveThirtyEight predicts Detroit to be the third-worst team at the end of the season. Only two games separate Minnesota, Atlanta, Detroit, and New York in the current standings. Chicago, Charlotte, and Washington are also within striking distance, which could lead to a tank-off to secure a higher draft pick.
Conclusion
Most of the NBA standings seem fairly set to remain the same regardless of how the NBA decides to finish out the regular season. Fifteen out of the sixteen playoff teams are heavy favorites to move on, with only the eighth seed in the Western Conference under true contention. While FiveThirtyEight predicts either Memphis or New Orleans to take that last playoff spot, it could be highly dependent on how much of the remaining schedule is played, if any. This would make Memphis one of the biggest winners of the shortened season. In the Eastern Conference, the playoff teams are mostly set, but there might be some changes in the seeding. Despite the common name, FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR projections dislike Toronto, predicting them to drop to the six seed in the east and only win one game for the rest of the regular season. However, if the season does resume, the defending champions seem likely to prove the model wrong despite losing their best player from the previous season, Kawhi Leonard. A more likely result is that the Raptors will maintain home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs.
On the other side of the standings, there's still a lot to tank for. Only five games separate the second-worst Cavs and eighth-worst Wizards. Finishing off the season might result in a heavy tank-fest for the higher odds for a top pick with the RAPTOR projections favoring Golden State, Cleveland, and Detroit to be the three worst teams and having the highest odds at the first, second, and third picks in the draft. While the first two teams are already in the bottom three, Minnesota is currently the third-worst team in the NBA, giving them a reasonable shot at the top pick if the season ended today. With such a small margin and between 15 and 19 games remaining for each team, playing out the rest of the season could significantly shake-up teams' expected draft picks.
Overall, the season is mostly set. If the season ended today, there doesn't seem to be a serious outlier that could affect the outcome of the playoffs or the draft lottery. While playing the rest of the season would be ideal, it seems less and less likely each week that will happen. Regardless of what happens, this NBA season will be known for its sudden suspension and how it changed the sports landscape as a whole.