About one-quarter of the way into the 2021-22 NBA season, here's how some members of the Dartmouth Sports Analytics club see the divisional races shaking out.
Southwest
Paul Hudson '23
Standings Prediction:
- Dallas Mavericks
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Memphis Grizzlies
- San Antonio Spurs
- Houston Rockets
The top team in the Southwest Division is the Dallas Mavericks, led by 2021 First Team All-NBA selection Luka Doncic. Luka’s ability to create in the pick-and-roll and from the post rank among the best in the NBA. Dallas looks to improve upon last season with a similar squad and make a second-round playoff appearance for the first time in the Doncic era.
New Orleans, meanwhile, is a team with a lot of turnover, but still has a young first-year All-Star in Zion Williamson. With the loss of Lonzo Ball and the acquisition of Devonte Graham, new coach Willie Green faces a challenge in building an offense to compliment the uniqueness of a player like Zion. New Orleans will be looking to sneak into the playoffs for the first time since Anthony Davis’ 2018 run.
The young and tough Memphis Grizzlies are on the rise with their talented duo of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. The trade for Steven Adams and more young talent from the Timberwolves leaves the Grizzlies with room to improve and the ability to compete as a feisty team on the offensive glass.
San Antonio has a young core of talented players with Dejounte Murray taking a bigger leadership heading into this year. After moving on from Demar Derozan, the Spurs look to find their new star to lead them back into playoff glory under the coaching of Gregg Popovich.
Finally, we have the Houston Rockets, who have a young core and a bright future in prospective All-Star Jalen Green. Green and Kevin Porter Jr. will try to prove they are a force to be reckoned with for years to come, but right now the team is expected to lose a lot of games.
Northwest
Carter Sullivan '24
Standings Prediction:
- Denver Nuggets
- Utah Jazz
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Oklahoma City Thunder
Despite the lack of blockbuster moves in the Northwest this offseason, we saw teams make several small yet crucial signings and trades.
The Denver Nuggets, coming off a disappointing, season-ending sweep by the Phoenix Suns, signed forward Michael Porter Jr to an extension worth up to $207 million. Porter, along with the Nuggets’ talented duo of MVP Nikola Jokic and superstar Jamal Murray (who’ll be returning from an ACL tear next winter), certainly have the combined talent level to make Denver the best team in the Northwest.
The Nuggets main challenger looks to be the Utah Jazz, who not only re-signed veteran guard Mike Conley this offseason, but also kept big men Rudy Gay and Hasaan Whiteside on their roster. Beyond these three, the Jazz can also count on defending Sixth Man of the Year Jordan Clarkson and two-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell. Moreover, the Jazz appear best-positioned to challenge the Nuggets this season.
Moving to Portland, the Trail Blazers seem positioned for another good (but certainly not great) season, followed by a small playoff run. We’ve gotten used to these kinds of seasons from the Blazers, and with their only noteworthy offseason move being the acquisition of Larry Nance Jr., there’s no reason we should expect a deep 2021-22 playoff run from the Rip City squad. Keep an eye out for some signature 4th-quarter explosions from Damian Lillard (who averaged 29 points per game on 39% from 3 last year) and CJ McCollum, however, as these two have the ability to deliver entertainment on any given night.
Following the two-man show in Portland, let’s shift to another team built around two stars: the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves, with their dynamic duo of D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns (who averaged a quiet 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists per game last year), didn’t remain stagnant this offseason; by adding tenacious defender Patrick Beverly, whose defense affects the game beyond the box score, to their roster, they improved their ability to stop opposing guards (crucial if they want to see any sort of success in the Northwest). Along with 2020 number one pick Anthony Edwards, who’s developing into a poster-making machine, Beverly seeks to help the Timberwolves make a playoff push this year, one that would be more than welcomed in the win-deprived city of Minneapolis.
Moving on from the frosty state of Minnesota, we’ll finish off in Oklahoma. This is undoubtedly a rebuilding season for the Thunder, and while their roster is full of young talent, including floor general Shai Gilgeous Alexander and top-10 pick Josh Giddey, we shouldn’t expect much from this team in 2021-22, as their youth and inexperience will likely prove too large a hurdle to overcome in the NBA’s competitive Northwest. With the exception of this OKC team, all Northwest teams have either serious playoff potential or starpower, and the division is certainly one to keep an eye on this season.
Atlantic
Avery Sholes '24, Ben Morris '23, and Carter Sullivan '24
Standings Prediction:
- Brooklyn Nets
- Philadelphia 76ers
- New York Knicks
- Boston Celtics
- Toronto Raptors
Off-court drama has characterized the offseasons of the Atlantic division’s top teams. Brooklyn and Philadelphia could both make deep runs this year, but their success will be defined by their ability to control the behavior of their stars. In Philadelphia, all eyes are on Ben Simmons, who has expressed his willingness to sit out the entire season if not traded. It is possible that the Sixers would be better off without Simmons, and it will be interesting to see if another team would even take him on. It’s weird to think that a player with so much playoff experience could be considered a project, but that seems to be where Simmons is at. Will he ever learn how to shoot a free throw? Regardless, it will be interesting to see how Andre Drummond fits into the offense with dominant big-man Joel Embiid (who averaged a monstrous 28 points and 10 rebounds per game last season). If other guys such as Seth Curry can show improvement, Philadelphia’s dominance in the paint could carry them far.
Despite this high potential of the Sixers, the frontrunner in the Atlantic division has to be the Brooklyn Nets. Their only question mark, besides the threat of injury, is whether or not Kyrie Irving can buy in and set his ego (and conspiracy theories) aside. To date, Irving has yet to be vaccinated, which could threaten his ability to compete in home games. Look for Durant to take the Nets’ dominance to another level, having benefited from another offseason to recover from his achilles injury. We predict that, should he stay healthy, he will be this season’s MVP, and it won’t be close.
However, do not sleep on the other NYC team, the New York Knicks. Retaining basically their entire core that led them to last season’s four seed in the East — led by emergent star Julius Randle — the Knicks also added Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker in free agency. The addition of those two, along with the development of R.J. Barrett and Mitchell Robinson, promises to make the Knicks serious competitors this year. However, Knicks fans shouldn’t get too excited — going up against the likes of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving, who give Brooklyn an offensive rating of 119.6 when on the court together, is no easy task.
Moving north, let’s take a look at the Boston Celtics, whose small-but-significant offseason moves got their rabid fanbase buzzing with excitement. The addition of former Celtic Al Horford is significant; not only is Horford adored by C’s fans, but his veteran presence (he entered the league in 2007) is something the Celtics should benefit from. Along with Horford, the Celtics acquired Josh Richardson, a solid 3-and-D player, and Dennis Schroeder, a quick guard who can provide the Celtics with easy offense. Lastly, no discussion of the Celtics would be complete without mentioning superstars Jayson Tatum (whose offseason workout pictures gave Celtics fans everywhere reason to get excited) and Jaylen Brown, who, if they can perform this season, may very well bring Boston to the Conference Finals or beyond. Finally, we’ll touch on the Raptors, whose roster was shaken by the loss of longtime Raptor Kyle Lowry this offseason. In exchange for Lowry, Toronto picked up Precious Achiuwa and Goran Dragic, a floor general who averaged 13 points per game on 43% 3-point shooting last season. The Raptors also signed 3-and-D sharp-shooter Gary Trent and drafted rookie Scottie Barnes, a lengthy 6’9’’ guard with elite defensive skills. Barnes has the potential to eventually bring the Raptors back to success in the division, but until he matures his scoring abilities and further develops his game, do not expect to see big things from Toronto.
Pacific
Sri Erra '24, Mira Chiruvolu '25, and Carter Sullivan '24
Standings Prediction:
- Golden State Warriors
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Phoenix Suns
- Sacramento Kings
The Warriors, Lakers, Clippers, and Suns all have starting fives that look good on paper, meaning that a good starting lineup alone is not enough to win the Pacific division. Instead, we think that the following three factors will determine the winner of the division: depth and strength of each team’s bench, confidence in the rookies, and on-court performance of the starting five.
First, let’s talk about the Warriors. Despite Klay Thompson's injury, which has made the Warriors underdogs in the loaded Pacific division, we predict that the Warriors will come out on top. Bob Meyers, the Warriors general manager, has said that Klay may return as soon as late-December, which gives the team a lot to look forward to (Klay averaged 21 points per game in the 2018-19 season, which is the last season he fully played). Until then, the Warriors will need to focus on their offensive game, and few are worried about Stephen Curry’s expected performance. He has just signed a four-year, $215 million extension in August, and his 32 points per game are a key factor to the Warriors success.
Next, let’s talk about the Los Angeles Clippers, who we think will be a force to be reckoned with this season. They made it all the way to the Conference Finals last year, where they survived without Kawhi Leonard for six hard-fought games against the Phoenix Suns. If they can get Leonard back from injury this year, we think they’ll be able to replicate or exceed last year’s playoff run, which is why we’re ranking them second in the division. Aside from Leonard, the Clippers’ roster also boasts offensive weapon Paul George (who averaged 23 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists last year) and paint presence Serge Ibaka. This offseason, the Clippers also re-signed guard Reggie Jackson (who truly rose to the occasion in last year’s playoffs) and Nicolas Batum, a big man with serious stretch-four abilities. With these solid moves, the Clippers maintained the talent on their roster; barring any more injuries or setbacks to their top players, expect to see a deep playoff run from this L.A. team.
Staying in the City of Angels, let’s talk about the Lakers, whose offseason was nothing short of both exciting and confusing. The majority of their roster is new after losing Andre Drummond, Kyle Kuzma, Kentavius Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, Alex Caruso, Markieff Morris, and Ben McLemore. However, they brought in a mix of young talent and seasoned veterans, including Malik Monk, Wayne Ellington, Kent Bazemore, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kendrick Nunn, Trevor Ariza, Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony and, notably, Russell Westbrook. While the Lakers additions are eye-opening, they are also concerning. The average age of the Lakers is 30.9, roughly four years older than league-average. Looking at the potential starting line-up of Russell Westbrook, Lebron James, Anthony Davis, Malik Monk, and Carmelo Anthony, the five have missed a total of 164 regular season games over the last 2 years. In total, they have missed 22% of the last two seasons. It’s hard to see the Lakers making a title run if they can’t stay healthy. Russell Westbrook, one of the Lakers’ key additions this offseason, has been progressively worse; over the last 3 years, his win-shares per 48 minutes have decreased from 0.12 to 0.08, so it’s fair to say that he is not the same player that once won the MVP. As for Anthony Davis, his production has also become progressively worse; looking at his player efficiency rating, it dropped from 30.3 to 22.1 from the 2018-19 season to the 2020-21 season. Lebron’s main concern is his health, particularly following a season where he missed the most games he ever has in a season. Because of the declining performance and injury concerns of their star players, the Lakers will probably not live up to the championship expectations that many fans have. However, we don’t think that the Lakers will have a horrible season, prompting us to put them at third in the Pacific division .
On the other hand, the Western Conference champion Phoenix Suns made one move this whole offseason. That move was acquiring Landry Shamet and trading away Jevon Carter. This move will prove important, as the only thing that the Suns were missing was 3-point shooting. Landry Shamet shot 38.7% from beyond the arc last year while Jevon Carter shot a lower 37.1%, an improvement that should prove to be beneficial for a team that returns a loaded roster. This roster, which contains point-god Chris Paul, scoring assassin Devin Booker (who averaged 25 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists per game last season), and 6’11” center Deandre Ayton, has potential to go far this year. However, the Pacific is extremely loaded, prompting us to put the Suns at fourth. It should be noted however, that this is not a knock on Phoenix in any way, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a deep playoff run from them this year. However, because the Lakers, Clippers, and Warriors are so stacked, we couldn’t justify ranking Phoenix above these squads.
Finally, our discussion about the Pacific wouldn’t be complete without mentioning the Sacramento Kings. The Kings are not only a young team, but a large chunk of their front office was overhauled near the beginning of last season; consequently, the entire organization is still finding its identity, and we don’t expect to see much on-court success this year. With that being said, we do think that this young Kings squad will develop nicely in the years to come. Behind young point guard De’Aaron Fox (who averaged a quiet 25 points and 7 assists per game last season), 3-point sniper Buddy Hield (who averaged 16 points a game on 39% 3-point shooting last season), explosive big man Marvin Bagley, and 2nd-year guard Tyrese Haliburton, the Kings can eventually become contenders. Their front office was also busy making moves this offseason, as Sacramento let go of guard Kyle Guy and big man Hassan Whiteside (among others), while picking up big men Alex Len and Tristan Thompson. Sacramento fans should look to the years ahead with hope and optimism; for now, however, they shouldn’t expect anything from their team .
Central
Sri Erra '24, Mira Chiruvolu '25, Zac Nelson-Marois '24
Standings Prediction:
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Chicago Bulls
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Indiana Pacers
- Detroit Pistons
The Central Division is home of the defending NBA champions and looks to have a bright future with a lot of young talent. The outcome division will come down to how well the young talent in the central division can work together. Ultimately, however, the Bucks are favored to win the division for the fourth year in a row.
During the offseason, the Bucks made a lot of moves; however, their core remains the same. The Bucks lost PJ Tucker, Bryn Forbes, and Jeff Teague, while adding Grayson Allen, Semi Ojeleye, George Hill, Tremont Waters, and Rodney Hood. Jrue Holiday is coming off the best season of his career, setting career highs in win-shares per 48 minutes (0.17) and player efficiency rating (20.0). In addition, Khris Middleton is coming off a year where he had his second highest true shooting percentage in a season (58.8%) and his career high assist percentage (23.2%). As teams start to guard Khris Middleton more heavily, his playmaking will be key, so his high assist percentage is a good sign for the Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off a campaign where his player efficiency rating (29.2) and win-shares per 48 minutes (0.24) hit the third best of his career. The two seasons where he had a higher player efficiency rating and win shares per 48 minutes he won the MVP. The core talent of the Bucks make them hard to pick against in the Central Division.
Other teams in the Central Division shouldn’t be overlooked, especially the Chicago Bulls, who had a busy offseason. Over the offseason, the Bulls lost many players, including Lauri Markannen, Tomas Satoransky, Garrett Temple, Daniel Theis, Denzel Valentine, and Thaddeus Young. Despite this, they were able to make some impressive additions, including Demar Derozan, Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso and Ayo Donsunmu. They also return their two best players: Zach Lavine and Nikola Vucevic. Demar Derozan, Zach Lavine, and new addition Lonzo Ball are all coming off their best season in terms of win-shares per 48 minutes. Nikola Vucevic’s performance seems to be declining when looking at his player efficiency rating, which was 21.8 last season, the lowest in his last five seasons. However, he is coming off a year where he was named an All-Star, so he should not be counted out. The Bulls have a lot of improving, young talent; the challenge will be working together efficiently. If the Bulls are able to do this, they can be the dark horses in the Central Division; consequently, we anticipate a second-place divisional finish for the Bulls.
This offseason, the Cleveland Cavaliers welcomed No. 3 overall pick Evan Mobley. Now in their fourth year of their rebuild, since Lebron left in 2018, and with Mobley’s name on the roster, the Cavaliers are forming a strong foundation. With his 7-foot-4 wingspan, Mobley is a big threat as a rim protector and will be a key aspect of the Cavaliers’ defense. Mobley will play alongside a young core of Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, and Isaac Okoro. With Sexton averaging nearly 27 points a game and Garland averaging close to 16, a big aspect of the Cavaliers offensive success will rest on this pair to shine. Assuming that they’re able to get to their spots and find buckets, we’re confident in the Cavs experiencing some degree of success this season, and rank them third in the Central Division.
The Indiana Pacers are looking to make it into the playoffs this year, but whether their roster will be able to challenge other teams in the East remains a question. T.J. Warren averaged 31 points per game in the bubble and is one of the Pacer’s biggest offensive threats, but because of a foot injury, he is out indefinitely to start the season. The Pacers anxiously wait for his return, and he will be key in getting into the playoffs. They do have some other playmakers, though. Domantas Sabonis averages 20.3 points per game, shooting 53.5% from the field and Malcolm Brogdon averages 21.2 points and 5.3 rebounds. If these players are able to replicate these stats and remain healthy with the return of T.J. Warren, they may have a chance. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the Pacers, however, we rank them No. 4 in their division.
Finally, we move to Detroit, where we check in on the Pistons. Although the Pistons didn’t make many moves this offseason, the ones that they did make appear solid. The Pistons added Cade Cunningham, the prized guard from Oklahoma State. His ability to do stuff beyond the box score makes him a true impact when it comes to winning teams, though it’s safe to say that the Pistons will not be gunning for a playoff position this season. Kelly Olynyk, Cory Joseph, and Trey Lyles are all good signings for this team. Despite these offseason additions, this team is still in full rebuild mode, and we rank them last in the Central division.
Southeast
Carter Sullivan '24 and Zac Nelson-Marois '24
Standings Prediction:
- Miami Heat
- Atlanta Hawks
- Washington Wizards
- Charlotte Hornets
- Orlando Magic
Although the Southeast has been a relatively weak division recently (with the exception of Miami, of course), this season brings renewed promise for many Southeast squads, which we’ll discuss below. The Miami Heat are clear division favorites, as only two seasons removed from their 2019-20 Finals appearance, the Heat have maintained and developed their same squad. Guys like Tyler Herro, who improved his point-per-game average from 13.5 to 15.1 last season on more efficient shooting, and Bam Adebayo, who averaged 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists per game, only look to put up bigger performances this season. Paired with veteran and five-time All-Star Jimmy Butler, these young players will certainly do damage in the Southeast. The Heat also acquired veteran guard and six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry this offseason, signed 3-and-D specialist PJ Tucker, and re-signed three-point assassin Duncan Robinson. And Victor Oladipo, who averaged a solid 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game when he played with the Rockets in 2020, is preparing to return from injury and help the Heat become even more dominant. Is there any question in our minds that the Heat will finish first in the Southeast? Absolutely not.
Next up is the Atlanta Hawks. Although they didn’t acquire any huge stars in the offseason, they did keep all of their current talent. By re-signing the ever-improving John Collins (whose 3-point-percentage jumped from 34% to 40% over his first 3 seasons in the league) along with Clint Capela, Kevin Huerter, Lou Williams, and most importantly, budding superstar Trae Young (who averaged a cool 25 points and 9 assists per game last season), the Hawks look to make a big leap this season. This leap will only be boosted by coach Nate McMillan, who’s proven that he can get the most out of his stars (like Trae and John Collins); consequently, we’re more confident in the Hawks than reason might suggest, and are placing them at No. 2 in our Southeast standings predictions.
Moving on to D.C., let’s take a look at the Wizards, who pieced together an interesting roster this offseason. Full of players who’ve been overshadowed by superstar teammates in the past, like Spencer Dinwiddie (who played alongside KD, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden in Brooklyn), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell (who played alongside Lebron James and AD in L.A.), this year’s Wizards truly have something to prove. While there’s no doubt that these players alone are skilled, the Wizards will likely still look to superstar Bradley Beal, who averaged 31 points on 23 attempted field goals per game last season, for most of their production. Nonetheless, Beal is an elite-level scorer, and we predict that he will mesh nicely with players like Caldwell-Pope and Harrell; with this in mind, we have the Wizards coming in third in the Southeast this season.
Next, we move to Charlotte, where the Hornets had an offseason that wasn’t too eventful. Drafting James Bouknight was a very solid pick-up, adding another high-scoring guard to go alongside Terry Rozier and Lamelo Ball. They did lose Davonte Graham, and although not a great systematic fit, got nothing in return. Cody Zeller and Malik Monk didn’t pan out either in Charlotte, but they are good players, and Charlotte got nothing in return once again. Despite the limited offseason moves, Charlotte looks to be in a position to compete in the East. Though not a playoff lock, they appear to be on the rise, and with the new play-in tournament structure, I find it hard to believe that they are in the bottom five teams after 82 games. Lamelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward are all very solid players who can make contributions night-in-and-night-out.
Lastly, we’ll set our sights on Orlando, where the Magic had a fantastic draft. Orlando drafted Jalen Suggs with the No. 5 pick in the draft. Getting Suggs here was an absolute steal. He is a do-it-all guard who is clutch in big moments and should not have fallen this low. Franz Wagner is a very solid player who is surprisingly skilled for his size. These moves will not be enough to catapult the Magic from their struggles of last season for the foreseeable future, but it’s nice to see that they have a solid rebuilding core.