By Atul Venkatesh '27
22 weeks. 284 games. The NFL season has brought us everything, from incredible individual performances to walk-off wins. After five months of hard-fought football, it comes down to the final four quarters. 60 minutes. Legends will undoubtedly be made. Dreams will certainly be fulfilled. And hearts will certainly be broken. After nearly two full weeks of anticipation, the big game is happening this Sunday. Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers. 6:30 PM.
How did they get here?
The Chiefs are teaching the rest of the world why playoffs are truly a different ballgame. Their regular season was far from perfect: after suffering a Christmas day beatdown at the hands of the Aidan O'Connell-led Raiders, the 9-6 Chiefs were fighting for their playoff lives. The offense looked dysfunctional, and Patrick Mahomes was in the midst of a down year. However, in typical Kansas City fashion, they ran the table, winning out and clinching the west. In the playoffs, any sign of vulnerability disappeared as the Chiefs roared to life. Kansas City beat the Dolphins and Bills in convincing fashion en route to a showdown at Baltimore with a trip to the big game on the line. That AFC Championship matchup was probably the most impressive all-around performance by the Chiefs this season. The defense forced three turnover-worthy plays and an abysmal 50.3 Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade out of Most Valuable Player shoo-in Lamar Jackson - both were his lowest of the season. On the offensive side of the ball, Patrick Mahomes continued to play near-perfect football, and Travis Kelce had another stellar outing. Mahomes has yet to throw a turnover-worthy play in the postseason, and he'll head into Las Vegas looking to capture his third ring.
On the other hand, the Niners have displayed a high level of dominance throughout the season. Their net expected points added per play of 0.26 (expected points added per play on offense + expected points added per play on defense) is far and away the best in the league. Despite their midseason losing streak, major wins over the Cowboys and Eagles ensured San Francisco captured the one seed. Quarterback Brock Purdy's play has been a major contributor to the 49ers' success. Just a few months removed from major elbow surgery, the second-year QB picked up right where he left off, catapulting Kyle Shanahan's offense to one of the league's best. While the 49ers seemed to cruise into the playoffs, their road to the Super Bowl has been far from easy. In both their previous games, the 49ers found themselves behind early on, including a seemingly insurmountable 24-7 deficit against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship game. However, San Francisco was able to come out victorious, and in the process, Kyle Shanahan was able to silence some of the doubters. The 49ers enter the big game as a battle-tested team and the Vegas favorite, albeit while not playing to their full potential.
Statistical and positional comparison
While Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes have similar expected points added per play in the playoffs, the Chiefs get the edge at QB. Mahomes's absurd 90.0 PFF passing grade in the playoffs dominates Purdy's pedestrian 59.0 grade. The 49ers have the better backfield. While Chiefs runningback Isiah Pacheco has had a great 2024 campaign, Christian McCaffrey has been on another level. The Offensive Player of the Year favorite has amassed over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and has singlehandedly won his team games. The receiving cores of both teams are tougher to compare, but I ultimately side with San Francisco. While Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce have provided a spark to the Kansas City offense, the Chiefs lack consistency beyond those two receivers. The 49ers, on the other hand, boast a plethora of talented pass-catching options. George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey give even the best defenses headaches. On the offensive line, while the 49ers possess one of the game's best offensive tackles in Trent Williams, they have struggled to find consistency on the rest of the line. In fact, it has been a weakness in an otherwise potent San Francisco offense. While allowing sacks hasn't been an issue in the playoffs, Trent is the only player on the team who has above a 65.0 PFF pass-blocking grade. The Chiefs aren't that much better. Carried by their interior trio of Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney, and Trey Smith, Kansas City has had trouble with finding a dependable offensive tackle. However, that does not seem to be in the playoffs as starting tackles Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith each are yet to allow a sack. Considering recent form, I think the Chiefs have the better offensive line. Offensively, the Chiefs and Niners are dead even. Both have the capability of asserting dominance at any given point.
Both the Chiefs and the 49ers boast top defenses. The Chiefs, however, clearly have the better secondary. Led by their duo of L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, the Chiefs secondary shut down some of the top offenses in the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens on their path to the Super Bowl. The Niners secondary, on the other hand, has been gashed in back-to-back weeks by the Packers and Lions. The secondary has continued to be the weakness of the defense, and it's clear that they are missing the presence of all-star safety Talanoa Hufanga. With that being said, the Niners can hang their hat on having the better linebacker core. This is no insult to the Chiefs, who possess excellent depth at the position. The 49ers just happen to have a top linebacker duo in Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. Greenlaw, in particular, has come alive in the playoffs, with an insane 87.4 PFF coverage grade during that period. The defensive line might have been the hardest position group to evaluate. The 49ers should be much better on paper, consisting of Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Javon Hargrave, and Arik Armstead. However, the defensive line has largely been a one-man wrecking crew in the playoffs, with Bosa being the only defensive lineman who recorded a sack. The Chiefs have spread their production out a bit more. Chris Jones has been his usual dominant self, and George Karlaftis has taken his production to another level. Due to recent form, I conclude that the Chiefs have the better defensive line. Most of it comes down to my trust in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to scheme up pressure with his timely blitzes. The Chiefs have the better defense, but the 49ers have the defensive talent to take over the game as they have done in the past.
Keys to the game
Which team will be better at limiting the run?
It would not be surprising if Sunday features a lot of running back usage. Kansas City ranks 28th in terms of expected points allowed per rush. The problem? San Francisco ranks first in that same statistic offensively. The Chiefs have struggled to stop the run, and handling Christian McCaffrey will be a herculean task. The 49ers aren't much better, ranking 25th in terms of expected points allowed per rush. Just two weeks ago, San Francisco surrendered 182 rushing yards to the Lions with an insane 6.2 yards per carry. While the run game isn't the Chiefs' strong suit, Isaiah Pacheco is more than capable of gashing the Niner defense. The RBs will play an important role in this game, and it might not even be a stretch to say that the team with the better run defense will win the game.
Can the 49ers stop their streak of starting slowly?
The 49ers have had to play some hero ball in the playoffs, coming from behind in both of their previous games. In doing so, Kyle Shanahan seems to have reversed the narrative surrounding his ability to come from behind. Before the playoffs, Shanahan's record when trailing by seven or more points in the fourth quarter was 0-30. Fast forward to the present, that record has changed to 2-30. While this should give the 49ers more confidence, they cannot afford to let the Chiefs get ahead from the start. Both the Packers and Lions were relatively inexperienced with playoff competition, and, as a result, San Francisco was able to come back. Mahomes and company will not have this issue. If the Chiefs get out to an early lead, with their experience, they will likely control the game until the final minutes. The Niners need to fix their first-half offensive woes if they want a chance in this game.
Can the Chiefs defense slow down the gauntlet of 49ers receivers?
As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs secondary has been their strong suit. However, the 49ers might present their greatest challenge yet. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are among the top ten wide receivers in terms of yards per route run, and George Kittle is the best tight end in that statistic. Moreover, the Chiefs love to play man coverage and have excelled. However, the San Francisco receivers are all excellent route runners and present big matchup problems. A specific matchup to look out for is Brandin Aiyuk vs. L'Jarius Sneed. Both players have been playing some of their best football recently, and the winner of that matchup provides their team with a big advantage. I don't expect Spagnuolo and company to change their defensive philosophy, but they will definitely have their hands full.
Which team can put more pressure on the quarterback?
Believe it or not, Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes are some of the best QBs on the run. This year, Purdy accumulated 0.77 expected points added per scramble, and Mahomes accumulated 0.66 expected points added per scramble, good for first and second, respectively. Both QBs are strong in improvisation, and the defense that does the best job of containing them will win the game. The best way to contain these playmakers is to generate pressure. While pressure can open the door for big plays, it can also force bad decisions and lead to turnovers. This may be easier said than done, but exerting pressure on the quarterback while containing them in the pocket is a recipe for victory.
Final verdict
While this might not be the matchup that everyone wanted, there is no denying the potential of this game to go down in history. Both teams boast dynamic offenses and incredible defenses. This game will come down to the wire, but in the end, the Chiefs will emerge victorious over the Niners, just like how they did four years ago. As someone who picked against the Chiefs in the past two games, I have learned my lesson in not betting against Mahomes. The Niners haven't played their best football and have gotten away with playing mistake-prone football. They won't have similar success against the Chiefs. I see the Chiefs jumping out to an early lead and taking control of the game. Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs defense will do a formidable job putting Brock Purdy in awkward situations. The 49ers may keep the game within striking distance, but the Chiefs will eventually pull away, and Mahomes will get his coveted third ring.
Devil's advocate
All hope is not lost for San Francisco, and there is a world where they win it all. The first drive is the most important in setting the tone for the rest of the game. It would be monumental if the Niners are able to march down the field and score a touchdown on the first drive. The Chiefs are normally stellar when trailing, but this season seems to be an anomaly. While the Chiefs ranked first in terms of expected points added per pass play while trailing from 2018-2022, they rank 17th in that statistic this year. Patrick Mahomes also ranks 21st in terms of expected points added per play in the fourth quarter. If the Niners can head into halftime with the lead, they will like their chances to hold onto that lead and win the game.