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Author: Dartmouth Sports Analytics

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By Dean Lowery ’27, Alex Jessey ‘28, Benjamin Ross ’28, Joe Parmigiani ‘28, Christian Arnold ‘28

Introduction

Well, Oregon now has the biggest win of the season. The Mighty Ducks made some special teams mistakes, but ultimately, they were able to make a stand when it mattered. This week features a tremendous pair of SEC games. The third weekend of October is sure to delight fans around the country.

Three Big Games

#7 Alabama @ #11 Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, Neyland Stadium

Well, well, well. “The Third Weekend in October” might just be a must win game if these teams want to make it to Atlanta. Neyland will most certainly be rocking, but can Tennessee contain Jalen Milroe?

Keys for the Crimson Tide: After close games and an upset loss, Alabama will look to bounce back, but that is no easy task. They’ll need to cut down on turnovers, and their offensive weapons, Milroe and Williams, will need to be productive.

Keys for the Vols: Things haven’t been easy for the Vols in recent weeks either. If they want to beat the Crimson Tide, Tennessee is going to need stellar QB play from Iamaleava, continued success on defense, and a lot of grit.

#5 Georgia @ #1 Texas, Austin, Texas, DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

The SEC’s newest rivalry is certainly bound to be a great one for years to come. However, this game holds massive implications for this year’s playoff race. Both of these teams will either take a huge step back or forward in their playoff chances depending on this game’s outcome.

Keys for the Dawgs: Georgia is coming into another hostile environment, this time looking for more success. Will they be able to prove their might as one of the nation’s best teams, or will they fall again?

Keys for the Longhorns: Texas have cruised this season. They are undoubtedly the country’s number 1 team, but they need to prove it this week. Quinn Ewers, the explosive offense, and their dominant defense will need to show out on national television.

Nebraska @ #16 Indiana, Bloomington, Indiana, Memorial Stadium

Football, eh? The Hooisers have completely gone under the B1G radar, and are in a position to compete for the B1G crown. However, they’re largely unproven. That being said, they’ve been convincing in all their matchups to date.

Keys for the Huskers: It’s the biggest game yet for star freshman QB Dylan Raiola. He needs to bounce back from a rough outing last week against Rutgers. The biggest challenge for the Huskers may be stopping Indiana’s offense: Indiana leads the Big Ten in points per game and total yards.

Keys for the Hoosiers: Indiana has looked flawless through six games, and finally faces a true test at home. To continue their run to the playoff, they’ll need to clean up on defense against a tough Huskers offense. Indiana has never trailed this season, and they’ll need their prolific offense to keep that streak alive.

3 big players

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State Broncos @ UNLV (Oct. 25)

No doubt it's the favorite at this point. 217 yards and a touchdown add to an already-loaded resume. Barring injury, this man will win the Heisman trophy. Huge matchup this week though, and his team will need all 215 pounds.

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado Buffaloes @ Arizona

The potential #1 overall pick has been playing his heart out. A home loss to K-State hurts the Buffs’ Big 12 chances in a major way. 34/40 from Sanders ain’t too shabby either. Sanders needs a bounce-back game this week at Arizona.

Cam Ward, QB, Miami Hurricanes @ Louisville

Sneaky trap game here. The ‘Canes should be weary of Louisville, they’ve been giant killers before. Ward does have the name-brand advantage over the other two contenders for the Heisman. Could be a factor down the stretch.

Three Teams to Watch

Well, well, well. Who is going to occupy the coveted fifth automatic bid? We might start using the term “Cinderella” in football.

Boise State Broncos (5-1) @ UNLV (Oct. 25)

As mentioned previously, this one is going to be huge. UNLV can reenter the conversation, and would hand Boise St. their first conference loss, while avoiding one of their own. On the other hand, Boise St. has a chance to knock UNLV out of playoff contention. Should be a fun one.

Navy Midshipmen (5-0) vs Charlotte

Coming off the bye week Navy has finally gotten the recognition they deserve coming in at 25th in the polls. They look to continue their dominance this week vs Charlotte before hosting Notre Dame the  following weekend in a game of ranked foes.

Army Black Knights (6-0) vs. ECU

Army, similar to the Navy, popped in the polls this week in the 23 slot. While Boise St is the favorite for the 5th automatic bid, don't count out the Black Knights. They have yet to have a game with 17 points and we don't expect that to change this week vs ECU.

3 value bets

(6-3 on the season)

Army (-16) vs East Carolina

Missouri (-4) vs Auburn

Kansas St. (-2.5) @ West Virginia

The “Dartmouth” Poll

Well, the AP Poll stinks. And the CFP poll is still weeks away. Here’s what our team came up with.

Published on

By Dean Lowery '27, Alex Jessey ‘28, and Benjamin Ross ’28

Introduction

Well, we told you so. Upsets did happen. Alabama fell. Tennessee fell. Michigan fell. Southern
Cal fell. Like dominoes, the upsets seemingly compounded one after another last Saturday. The
AP Poll shuffled all over the place, with undefeated teams as hot a commodity as milk during a
hurricane—another big week upcoming, folks

...continue reading "College Football Week Seven Outlook – A Game of Threes"

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By Dean Lowery '27, Alex Jessey ‘28, and Benjamin Ross ’28

Introduction

Woah. What a game we had last week in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide claim the top spot (for
now), and a little bit of doubt begins to creep into the minds of Bulldog fans. Also, Ole Miss
takes a huge loss. Looking ahead to week six, the stage is set for a calmer set of matchups.
However, you never know what could be lurking around the corner.

...continue reading "College Football Week Six Outlook – A Game of Threes"

Published on

By Dean Lowery '27, Alex Jessey ‘28, and Benjamin Ross ’28

Introduction

Well, we made it. Week Five is upon us. Things are beginning to take shape. Last week saw
Southern Cal fall flat in their B1G debut, and NIU take a huge hit in their bid for the #5 seed.
Utah also established a stranglehold on the Big 12, earning a huge win in Stillwater. This is the
week when things get real, as the focus of the national audience turns to Tuscaloosa.

...continue reading "College Football Week Five Outlook – A Game of Threes"

Published on

By Ava Politis '26

Introduction

Professional baseball's National League was the only league to exist until the American League was founded in 1901 ("American League is Founded"). While both teams were considered major leagues, the American League utilized the Designated Hitter rule introduced in 1973 ("What are the Differences Between the American and National Leagues?"). The designated hitter is a player who does not play defense and bats in place of the pitcher since pitchers are not known as the strongest hitters on the team ("Designated Hitter Rule | Glossary"). For example, from 1929-1941, pitcher Wes Ferrell only hit 38 home runs in his entire professional career, which is the most a pitcher has ever hit. On the other hand, David Ortiz hit 541 home runs as a designated hitter from 1997 to 2016 as he crushed 30-plus homers in 10 different seasons ("All time home run leaders at each position"). When interleague play occurred, and an American League team was playing at a National League stadium, the pitcher would have to hit and vice versa. In 2022, the National League officially gave in and officially adopted the Designated Hitter rule. 

Although adding a designated hitter to the National League would eliminate moments like Bartolo Colon hitting his famous home run in 2016, it could allow the National League to bring up more power hitters to the plate and rest their pitchers. On the surface, having designated hitters instead of pitchers would create a more effective offense as they hit for power. They typically have more hits and home runs than an average pitcher, which would allow more runs to be produced per game. According to Braves pitcher Charlie Morton, "'I don't think anyone wants to watch me strike out on three pitches and walk back to the dugout 98 times out of a hundred'" (Kurkjian). With that being said, some pitchers were also great hitters, as Madison Bumgarner hit two grand slams in his career, which is as many as Pete Rose and Derek Jeter had in 25,248 at-bats combined (Kurkjian). This paper will investigate whether or not there is statistically significant evidence supporting the hypothesis that designated hitters' offensive production in the National League is more effective than National League pitchers.

...continue reading "The Designated Hitter Rule: Was the National League Right?"

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By Sabin Hart '24, Grace McGinley '26, Dean Lowery '27, Tyler Goldstein '27, and Cam Cowperthwaite '27

Introduction

Across all sports, one of the most prevalent problems is figuring out which prospects will pan out and which will crash and burn. Millions of dollars are being poured into predictive analytics for everything from next-day parlays in sports betting to ranking draft prospects years in advance. Knowing this, we wanted to explore what causes a player in the National Basketball Association (NBA) to take the leap from a role player to all-star. Can the statistics tell us if the 41st overall pick will be the future Most Valuable Player? This paper looks at recent all-stars to determine if they showed early hints before they made the leap to stardom.

...continue reading "What Makes a Breakout? Analyzing the Most Promising Young Stars in the National Basketball Association"

Published on

By Ari Nathanson '26

Introduction

In 1989, Jimmy Johnson took over as coach of the Dallas Cowboys. He inherited a depleted roster on the heels of a 3-13 campaign, its third consecutive losing season after a still-NFL-record 20 consecutive winning seasons. Johnson had a clear strategy for improvement: amass as much draft capital as possible. However, in order to capitalize on his bounty of picks, he needed to know how to properly value them. At Johnson’s request, vice president Mike McCoy put together the NFL’s first draft pick trade value chart. It assigned the first overall pick an arbitrary value of 3,000 and a decreasing value to each successive pick. Using the chart, the Cowboys completed a whirlwind of trades in an attempt to exploit perceived market inefficiencies, drafting 42 players from 1991 to 1993. McCoy created the chart based on past trade behavior and his own gut instinct—not using advanced analytics. Nevertheless, it led the Cowboys to resounding success. Headlined by homegrown talent including Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, and Emmitt Smith, Dallas won three Super Bowls in the early 1990s. Soon after, the chart became a fixture of draft rooms around the league. Whereas previously teams had traded picks arbitrarily (as acknowledged by former Cowboys executive Gil Brandt), they now treated pick-trading as a more exact science. Yet Johnson’s chart was not without its critics. In 2005, business professors Cade Massey of the University of Pennsylvania Wharton and Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago Booth published “The Loser’s Curse.” They presented a compelling argument that NFL teams—even after the spread of Johnson’s chart—significantly overestimated the value of picking high in the draft. They also criticized the going discount rate (the cost of exchanging a future pick for a present pick) as exorbitantly high. In the years since, a plethora of alternative charts have been developed, claiming to more accurately reflect picks’ true value. Yet according to Bill Belichick, “everybody probably [still] uses about the same value chart.” How exactly did the proliferation of the Jimmy Johnson trade chart affect the draft pick trade market? Did criticism of the Johnson chart, exemplified by the seminal 2005 Massey-Thaler study, change NFL teams’ thinking? What other events, if any, had an impact? In this paper, I will investigate all of these questions through an in-depth analysis of the draft pick trade market over the past 40 years.

...continue reading "Exploring the Evolution of the NFL Draft Pick Trade Market Over Time"

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Published on 1 Comment on Which factors can indicate and give foresight to major first-round upsets in the Men’s NCAA Tournament?

By Dean Lowery '27

Introduction

The Men’s NCAA Tournament has a reputation for being unpredictable. Every year, millions of Americans attempt to fill out a perfect bracket in hopes of correctly predicting all 63 games that are contained in ‘March Madness’. However, some of this madness stands out above the rest: the ‘bracket buster’: the upset that comes as a surprise to seemingly every expert, breaking the hearts of millions of Americans and their dreams of a perfect bracket.

...continue reading "Which factors can indicate and give foresight to major first-round upsets in the Men’s NCAA Tournament?"

Published on

By Atul Venkatesh '27

Evaluating player performance is one of the most critical concepts in pro football. One method to do so is Approximate Value (AV), where players are given a seasonal score based on accolades and statistics that accumulate throughout their careers. While AV reflects a player's performance historically, it lacks insight into their current worth. To address this issue, I have modified AV to create the Present AV (PAV) statistic, which shows the current value of over 1800 players through the 2022 NFL season. I have also created a draft value chart which gives the expected PAV of every draft pick. With both of these metrics, it is now possible to evaluate past trades, determine the appropriate draft compensation for a player, and use a statistics-based method to determine the most valuable players in the league.

...continue reading "PAVing the Way for the Future – A Model That Determines Player Value and Evaluates Trades in the NFL"

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By Atul Venkatesh '27

22 weeks. 284 games. The NFL season has brought us everything, from incredible individual performances to walk-off wins. After five months of hard-fought football, it comes down to the final four quarters. 60 minutes. Legends will undoubtedly be made. Dreams will certainly be fulfilled. And hearts will certainly be broken. After nearly two full weeks of anticipation, the big game is happening this Sunday. Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers. 6:30 PM.

...continue reading "Predicting the Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl"