Author: Dartmouth Sports Analytics

Matthew Schnell '22

To examine the effects of returning kickoffs in the FCS and, more specifically, the Ivy League in the 2019 season, I looked at every single kickoff from the regular season, using ESPN’s play-by-play data. I parsed the data out into several different categories, including whether the team elected to return the kickoff, the distance of the kickoff, where the returner caught the ball, how far the returner traveled, and, thus, where the ensuing possession began. In total, I looked at 9,866 kickoffs from the FCS and 346 kickoffs from Ivy League teams. Due to the new NCAA kickoff rules, a player can fair catch the ball anywhere before the 25-yard line, and their team will start their possession at the 25-yard line. Moreover, I focused on kickoffs where the player caught the ball before this 25-yard line threshold and decided to return the kick. Below are tables and plots which summarize the effects of such players who elected to return the kickoffs when catching the ball anywhere before the 25-yard line.

...continue reading "A Brief Analysis on FCS and Ivy League Kickoffs"

Matthew Schnell '22

Introdution

I am watching week five of the college football season. The Michigan Wolverines face off against the Northwestern Wildcats. Michigan takes the opening kickoff from its own endzone and elects to return it, starting from their own 17-yard line. On their next possession, after a Northwestern touchdown, the Wolverines return it to their 14. Here are the Wolverines ensuing kickoff returns: 10 yards to the 31, 18 yards to the 21. Michigan needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the upset-minded Wildcats 20-17. Yet as I watched the game, I noticed time and time again, Michigan chose to return the ball, turning down the option of a touchback and starting at their own 25. In total, Michigan lost 17 yards of field position by returning the kickoff. Sure, 17 yards might not sound like a lot, but in a narrow game, every yard goes a long way to helping your team win. ...continue reading "With College Football’s New Kickoff Changes, is Returning the Kick Really Worth the Risk?"

Addison Dick '22

Introduction

The 2017 Major League Baseball season marked 45 years since the American League adopted the designated hitter rule. At the MLB owners’ meetings last June, commissioner Rob Manfred said he believed that there was some movement on the issue from National League owners [1] . At the time of Manfred’s comments, NL teams in 2017 combined for more strikeouts than they did hits [1]. The purpose of this study is to analyze the difference in runs per game for AL and NL teams. ...continue reading "Analyzing the DH Rule through Runs per Game between NL and AL Teams"

Baily Deeter '22

Introduction

Introduction: It is widely accepted that quarterback is the most important position in professional sports. Any team with a good quarterback will be able to move the ball on offense and score points at will, making them an instant contender. It’s no coincidence that some of the best quarterbacks of all time, such as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Joe Montana, have all won multiple Super Bowls. In search of the next great quarterback, teams often use high draft picks to select the best quarterback from the incoming draft class. For some teams, it works. Manning, John Elway, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck were all selected in the top 5 of the draft, and all five have been phenomenal. However, Mark Sanchez, JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, and many other busts were also selected in the top 5 but have not performed as well in the NFL. ...continue reading "Should Teams Draft a QB with Their top Draft Pick?"

Eli Pattison '22

Abstract

This project aims to measure the value a basketball player contributes to his team relative to his financial cost to them. This was quantified by dividing a player’s 2017-18 win shares by their salary for that year. Values of win shares per million dollars (WS/$Million) were calculated for all 276 NBA players that played more than 1000 minutes over the course of the 2017-2018 season. Rankings of overall win shares, which were similar to MVP voting patterns, were then compared with player rankings for WS/$Million. Graphs of win shares vs salary and WS/$Million vs salary were also analyzed. ...continue reading "Who Had the NBA’s Most Valuable Contract for the 2017-2018 Season?"

Jack Kurtz '21

Since entering the NFL in 2014, Jarvis Landry has recorded the most receptions through four seasons in league history with 400 receptions, good for an astounding average of 100 receptions per year. Despite this historic number of receptions, Landry has struggled to produce yardage and touchdowns. During his four years with the Dolphins, Landry averaged 10.1 yards per reception (Y/R), in the 2017 season alone, there were 91 players who bested that mark, while Landry’s 2017 average Y/R of 8.8 ranked 110th that year. Moreover, he failed to record 10 touchdowns in a season just once throughout his career.

...continue reading "Is There Hope for Jarvis Landry as a Deep Threat in Cleveland?"

Justin Antolin '21

Abstract

The frequency of TJS is on the rise among youth and professional baseball pitchers. Many of these players are receiving treatment preemptively, with the belief that the surgery will improve pitching performance. The purpose of this study is to determine the statistical significance of TJS on the overall performance of major league pitchers. Data on 13 carefully selected MLB pitchers were collected and analyzed. The average ERA, FIP, and WAR of each pitcher before their surgery was noted and then subtracted from the average ERA, FIP, and WAR of each player after their surgery. The weighted average and standard deviation of these differences was taken and recorded, and confidence intervals for each value were then computed (alpha= .05). ...continue reading "Effect of Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) Replacement Surgery on ERA, FIP, and WAR for MLB Pitchers"

Jack Kurtz '21

In many NBA scouting circles, foul shooting percentages in college are used to project a prospect’s potential three-point shooting in the NBA. But is foul shooting really a better indicator of three-point success at the next level? ...continue reading "Better Indicator of NBA Success. Foul Shooting or Three Point Shooting?"