Unusually warm days, due to their immediate and visible effects, can influence belief in climate change. Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hot_day_ %28277099812%29.jpg
Research has already shown that there is a relationship between today’s temperature and one’s belief in climate change and global warming. Lisa Zaval, Elke Weber, and Eric Johnson from Columbia University, along with Elizabeth Keenan from the University of California in San Diego, performed five studies to determine how this effect occurs (1).
People tend to take personally relevant details into account when they assess their beliefs. Local temperature variations are readily perceptible, while long term trends in temperature are not. Since trends are a basis for global warming, that daily temperature can affect one’s belief in global warming is no surprise. This effect is known as local warming. The researchers wanted to see what factors are responsible for or could affect local warming (1).
In their first study, the researchers wanted to see if using the term “global warming” in place of “climate change” had any effect on local warming. They asked participants about their belief in one of the phenomena along with whether the daily temperature was higher or lower than normal. The results revealed that phrasing did not affect local warming, with variation in the temperature that day being the dominant effect in climate change belief. This was true even after accounting for age, political affiliation, and environmental concern (1).
In the second study, knowledge and awareness of climate change was tested. One group read a text on climate change while the other was given a text on sleeping. Once again, the researchers asked questions about the daily temperature variation and belief in climate change. The results showed no significant variation after being informed on the topic. Local warming was still significant (1).
In a third study, the researchers looked at priming, in which they tried to influence the participants’ perceptions of temperature by exposing them to temperature-related words. They used scrambled words relating to heat, cold, or neither, to make sentences, along with asking the questions about daily temperature variation and climate change belief. Those who had been primed with heat-related words were more likely to believe in climate change than the control group or those primed with cold-related words (1).
In a fourth study, participants were asked about how the previous day’s temperature deviated from average. This question was asked along with how that day’s temperature varied and their belief in climate change. They found that while many were able to remember the variation in the previous day’s temperature, it was the present day’s temperature that led to the local warming effect, affecting their perception of climate change. The researchers suspected that memories would not play as much of a role as the immediate sensation of the actual day’s temperature (1).
In a fifth and final study, the researchers, after assessing if the day’s temperature was warmer than average, asked the participants if there had been an unusually high number of warmer days throughout the past year. The results revealed that those who found the day warmer than usual tended to recount the year as having more warm days (1).
As shown in these experiments, priming by words related to warmth and the daily temperature variation both contribute to perceived memory and the local warming effect. Warm days can lead to heightened belief in climate change, and cold days can lead to decreased belief. These results show the difficulty involved in changing perceptions on global warming. This difficulty is of concern, for long-term changes in the lifestyles of individuals are needed to reduce carbon emissions. Such variability in temperature and belief will hamper such long-term changes (1).
References
1. L. Zaval, E. Keenan, E. Johnson, and E. Weber, How Warm Days Affect Increase Belief in Global Warming (12 January 2014). Available at http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2093.html?utm_source=Daily+Carbon+Briefing&utm_campaign=9bcc927047-DAILY_BRIEFING&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-9bcc927047-303423917